Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 30 Oct 2013, 03:00 PM

Asia

 India Raises Interest Rates For The Second Month Running. India's new central bank governor has raised interest rates for the second consecutive month by a quarter of 1% to 7.75% to try to fight inflation. The move applies to the benchmark repo rate - the rate at which the central bank lends to commercial banks. The cash reserve ratio - the percentage of banks' deposits they must keep in cash - has been kept unchanged. India's inflation hit a seven-month-high annual rate of 6.46% in September. (BBC)

 Japan Retail Sales, Household Spending Beat Forecasts. Japanese retail sales rose 3.1 % from a year earlier in September, official data showed on Tuesday, a sign a personal spending is continuing to support the nation's economy. The increase was much higher than the 1.9 % rise analysts polled by Reuters were expecting, and marked a second straight month of gains. Spending on luxury goods, food and automobiles led the rise. Meanwhile, household spending also logged a better-than-expected gain, rising 3.7 % in the month from a year earlier, the strongest reading in six months and compared with the 0.5 % increase analysts were expecting. This reverses the 1.6 % on-year decline in August. A strong labor market is helping consumer sentiment, analysts say. The jobless rate for September, also released on Tuesday, came in at 4 %, in line with expectations and down slightly from 4.1 % in August. (CNBC)

 IMF: BOJ's Massive Stimulus Working. The Bank of Japan (BoJ)'s massive stimulus is working, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s mission chief to Japan said, and there is still room to increase purchases of government bonds and exchange-traded funds if a further boost was needed. Jerry Schiff, who is also deputy director of the IMF's Asia-Pacific Department, stressed he saw no need for the central bank to offer additional stimulus for now with the world's third-largest economy in good shape. The BoJ currently buys about 7trillion yen in government bonds each month, as well as riskier assets such as exchange-traded funds, under the stimulus it launched in April to try to escape deflation and drive inflation to two per cent in roughly two years. (Reuters)

 

USA

 Retail Sales In U.S. Climb Excluding Auto Dealers. Sales at most types of retailers, from electronics stores to restaurants, climbed in September, indicating households were sustaining the U.S. economic expansion before the government shutdown shook confidence. Purchases excluding auto dealers rose 0.4 % following a 0.1 % gain the prior month, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Total sales dropped 0.1 % because car purchases over the Labor Day holiday weekend were counted in the figures for August. (Bloomberg)

 Housing Prices In U.S. Cities Rise By Most Since Early 2006. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose in August from a year ago by the most since February 2006 as stronger demand boosted values. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property prices in 20 cities increased 12.8 % from August 2012, more than forecast, after a 12.3 % gain in the year ended in July, a report from the group showed today in New York. The median projection of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 12.5 % advance. (Bloomberg)

 Consumer Confidence In U.S. Slumps By Most Since August 2011. Confidence among U.S. consumers declined in October by the most since August 2011 as the budget impasse and debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington took a toll on outlooks. The Conference Board’s index slumped to 71.2 from a revised 80.2 last month, the New York-based private research group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a decrease this month to 75. The October reading was the weakest in six months. (Bloomberg)

 Wholesale Prices In U.S. Unexpectedly Fall As Food Costs Ebb. Wholesale prices in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in September as food costs retreated, an indication inflation remains tame. The 0.1 % decrease in the producer price index followed a 0.3 % gain the prior  month, a Labor Department report showed today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 80 economists called for a 0.2% advance. The so-called core measure, which strips out volatile food and fuel, increased 0.1 % after being unchanged in August. (Bloomberg)

 

Europe

 Italy’s Slump Persists In Setback For Letta Government. Italy’s economy shrank in the three months through September, the head of the statistics office said, prolonging a record recession and signaling that the euro area’s recovery is bypassing its third-biggest economy. Antonio Golini, acting chairman of Istat, the country’s national statistics office, also told a hearing in Parliament in Rome that gross domestic product will fall 1.8 % this year. That’s more than the 1.4 % contraction Rome-based Istat projected in May. (Bloomberg)

 U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise To Highest In 5 1/2 Years. U.K. mortgage approvals rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years in September, adding to signs of a strengthening property market that’s being stoked by government incentives. Lenders granted 66,735 mortgages, the most since February 2008, compared with a revised 63,396 the previous month, the Bank of England said in a report in London today. Home-loan rates fell to a record low, and gross mortgage lending was 15.6 billion pounds ($25 billion), the highest since October 2008. (Bloomberg)

 

Currencies

 Dollar Gains Amid Data; Fed Meeting Ahead. The U.S. dollar gained against most rivals on Tuesday amid a slew of economic data, while the Australian dollar dropped after comments from the nation’s central-bank governor. The euro fell to $1.3743 from $1.3805 late Monday, while the British pound declined to $1.6035 from $1.6155. The dollar increased to ¥98.19 from ¥97.65 on Monday. In other action, the Australian dollar dropped to 94.77 U.S. cents, off from late Monday’s 95.80 U.S. cents, after Reserve Bank of Australia Gov. Glenn Stevens talked the currency down during a speech early Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, advanced to 79.644 from 79.242 late Monday in North America. The dollar fell to 61.463 rupees from 61.61 rupees moments before the Reserve Bank of India’s announcement. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

 Oil Drops On Libyan Export Resumption Hopes. Brent oil futures fell on Tuesday, giving back some of the previous session's sharp gains, on expectations that fresh disruptions over the weekend in exports from OPEC member Libya could be short-lived. Brent futures for December ended the day 60 cents lower at $109.01 a barrel, after trading as low as $108.45 and gaining $2.68 per barrel on Monday. U.S. light, sweet crude for December fell 48 cents to settle at $98.20 a barrel. (Reuters)

 Gold Falls On Dollar Rise, Awaits Fed Statement. Gold fell on Tuesday, retreating from the previous session's five-week high, as a dollar rise and encouraging U.S. consumer spending data prompted investors to take profits ahead of a policy decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold was down 0.5 % to $1,344.89 an ounce by 2:40 p.m. EDT (1840 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver eased 10 cents to $22.46 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.1 % to $1,454.50 an ounce, while palladium eased 0.1 % to $742.72. Spot palladium was unchanged at $742.47 an ounce. (Reuters) 

 

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