Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 31 Oct 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 31 Oct 2013, 09:38 AM

Asia

Thai H2 GDP To Grow 3.3%: Finance Ministry. Thailand's economy is expected to grow 3.3% in the second half from the same period a year earlier, a finance ministry official said on Wednesday, after growth of 4.1% in the first half. The slowdown is due to weakness in exports and domestic consumption, Kulaya Tantitemit, senior expert on macroeconomic policy at the ministry's Fiscal Policy Office, told reporters. Last month, the ministry cut its 2013 economic growth forecast to 3.7% from 4.5%, but Kulaya said growth might be lower than that now, given poor exports in September. Thailand's economy, South-East Asia's second largest, grew 2.8% in the second quarter from a year before but it shrank 0.3% from the January-March period, when it contracted 1.7%. (Reuters)

Japan Factory Output Rises On Stronger Demand At Home. Japan's factories boosted output in September, data showed Wednesday, reversing a slide in the previous month owing to stronger domestic demand and highlighting that the world's thirdlargest economy is gathering steam. Industrial production rose 1.5 % month-on-month, compared with a revised fall of 0.9 % in August as demand among Japanese consumers for electronics and cars rose ahead of a sales tax hike next year. Over the three months to September, the nation's plants expanded production by 1.8 %. (AFP)

USA

Fed Keeps $85 Billion QE Pace Looking For Stronger Growth. The Federal Reserve decided to press on with $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy will continue to improve. “The recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat in recent months,” the Federal Open Market Committee (FDTR) said today at the end of a two-day meeting in Washington. “Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth.” Ben S. Bernanke is pushing unprecedented accommodation into the final months of his Fed chairmanship as he seeks to shield the four-year economic expansion from the impact of this month’s partial U.S. government shutdown. The 16-day closing resulted in the furloughs of as many as 800,000 federal workers and delayed release of data the Fed says it needs to evaluate the economy. (Bloomberg)

Companies In U.S. Added Fewer Workers Than Forecast. Companies added fewer workers than projected in October, indicating the U.S. job market lost momentum amid budget strife in Washington, a private report based on payrolls showed today. The 130,000 increase in employment was the smallest in six months and followed a revised 145,000 gain in September that was weaker than initially estimated, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 150,000 jobs. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Prices In U.S. Rise As Forecast On Gain In Fuel. The cost of living in the U.S. rose as projected in September as fuel charges climbed, capping the smallest year-to-year gain in five months. The consumer price index increased 0.2 %, matching the median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, after rising 0.1 % the prior month, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. Stripping out volatile food and fuel, the so-called core measure climbed 0.1 % for a second month, less than projected. (Bloomberg)

Budget Deficit In U.S. Narrows To 5-Year Low On Record Revenue. The U.S. posted its smallest budget deficit in five years as employment gains helped propel revenue to a record. Spending exceeded receipts by $680.3 billion in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, the narrowest gap since 2008, compared with a $1.09 trillion shortfall in fiscal 2012, the Treasury Department said today in Washington. In September, the U.S. recorded a $75.1 billion surplus, little changed from the surplus in the same month a year earlier. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Spain Ends Two-Year Recession With 0.1% Growth. Spain has seen its first quarterly economic growth since 2011, according to data from the country's National Statistics agency INE. The country's GDP grew 0.1% in the July-to-September period, after contracting for the previous nine quarters. Its growth confirmed last week's estimates from the Bank of Spain. The statistics mean Spain is officially out of recession. (BBC)

ECB Says Banks Set To Ease Loan Standards This Quarter. Euro-area financial institutions signaled they may make it easier for companies to get loans for the first time in more than six years, which may help the region’s recovery gather momentum. The European Central Bank said in a quarterly survey that banks expect to relax standards on corporate lending this quarter. That’s the first such response since the fourth quarter of 2009 and, if it occurs, would mark the first easing of conditions since the second quarter of 2007. Lenders also plan to ease access to consumer loans and mortgages, and predicted a rise in loan demand across all categories. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Swings Higher After Fed Statement. The U.S. dollar swung higher against some rivals on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held monetary policy steady, in line with expectations. The euro swung to a slight loss after the Fed statement, buying $1.3713 compared with $1.3743 on Tuesday. The euro had traded at $1.3756 just before the Fed. The British pound similarly showed a muted decline after the statement, fetching $1.6011 from $1.6035 on Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rivals, reversed direction to rise to 79.849 from 79.644 late Tuesday in North America. The dollar fetched ¥98.66 Japanese Yen, up from ¥98.19 late Tuesday, while the Australian dollar inched down to 94.52 U.S. cents from 94.77 U.S. cents. The Australian dollar dropped on Tuesday after its central bank governor said the currency’s value was too high. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Slides For 2nd Straight Day; Spread Widens. U.S. oil futures extended their move lower for a second consecutive day on Wednesday after government data showed large inventory builds, further widening the domestic oil's discount to international benchmark Brent. Brent crude for December delivery settled 85 cents higher at $109.86, after touching a one-week high of $110.16. U.S. crude settled at a more than one-week low, down$1.43 per barrel to $96.77, having hit an intraday low of $96.59. (Reuters)

Gold Drops As Fed Statement Offers Few Surprises. Gold fell in choppy trade on Wednesday, sharply erasing early gains as investors took profits after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep its stimulus program intact and offered few surprises. Spot gold was down 0.1 % at $1,342.64 an ounce at 4:03 p.m. EDT (2003 GMT), having earlier risen as much as 1.2 % to a session high of $1,359.60. Silver outperformed gold, ending up 0.5 % at$22.63 an ounce, having hit a one-month high of $23.06 earlier on Wednesday. Platinum rose 0.6 % to $1,468.24 an ounce, while palladium edged up 25 cents to $744.25 an ounce. (Reuters)

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