Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 1 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 01 Nov 2013, 09:43 AM

Global

6 Major Central Banks Make Currency Swap Permanent. Six major central banks said yesterday they would make their web of currency swap arrangements permanent as a "prudent liquidity backstop" in case of future global financial strains. Bank of Japan, United States Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England and the central banks of Canada and Switzerland will convert their "temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements" into standing arrangements that "will remain in place until further notice". "The existing temporary swap arrangements have helped to ease strains in financial markets and mitigate their effects on economic conditions," a coordinated statement from the central banks said. "The standing arrangements will continue to serve as a prudent liquidity backstop." (Reuters)

Asia

Minimal Rise In Japan Sept Wages, Tough Battle To End Inflation. Japanese wage earners' total cash earnings rose just 0.1% yearon-year in September, government data showed on Thursday, in a sign there has been very slow progress in achieving big increases in wages needed to end 15 years of deflation. This year's summer time bonus payments, an important measure of whether companies are willing to pay workers more money, rose an annual 0.3%. That followed a 1.4% annual decline in last year's summer bonuses. (Reuters)

BOJ Sticks To Easing As Some Board Members Cautious On Outlook. The Bank of Japan maintained its unprecedented easing and forecast inflation will reach its target, even as some board members cautioned that the price outlook was too optimistic. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s board stuck with a pledge to expand the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($711 billion) a year, in a decision in Tokyo today. Japan will see average inflation of 1.9 % in the 2015 fiscal year, according to the board’s median forecast, which strips out the effect of sales-tax increases -- the same forecast as in July, a separate statement showed. (Bloomberg)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Drop As California Clears Backlog. Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week as a backlog in California’s reporting cleared. Jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 340,000 in the week ended Oct. 26 from 350,000 the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 338,000. California said no claims last week represented applications from prior weeks, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released to the press. (Bloomberg)

US Criticises Germany And China Policies. The US has criticised Germany's economic policies, saying that its export-led growth model is hurting the eurozone and the wider global economy. In its bi-annual report, the US Treasury said that domestic demand growth in Germany had been "anaemic". It also reiterated its view that the Chinese yuan continued to remain "significantly undervalued". "Germany's anaemic pace of domestic demand growth and dependence on exports have hampered rebalancing at a time when many other euro-area countries have been under severe pressure to curb demand and compress imports in order to promote adjustment," the Treasury said. "The net result has been a deflationary bias for the euro area as well as for the world economy." (BBC)

Europe

Euro Zone Unemployment Stuck At Record High. Unemployment in the euro zone was 12.2 % in September, stubbornly stuck at a record high, signalling that the region's faltering economic recovery is yet to be felt in the job market. The figure is unchanged from the previous month, according to revised data from European statistics agency, Eurostat. The number of people unemployed in the region increased by 60,000 in September to a total of 19.4 million. By contrast, in September 2012 the jobless rate was 11.6 % and 12.1 % in July 2013 -- highlighting fears that the region's employment picture is deteriorating and could thwart a nascent economic recovery. (CNBC)

Eurozone Inflation Nears Four-Year Low. Eurozone inflation in October fell to 0.7%, its lowest since February 2010, thanks to a fall in energy costs. Official figures also showed the currency bloc's unemployment at another record high in September. The figures increase pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates further. Core inflation, which does not include energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, also fell from an annual rate of 1.4% to 1.1%. (BBC)

U.K. Mortgage Approvals Rise To Highest In 5 1/2 Years. U.K. mortgage approvals rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years in September, adding to signs of a strengthening property market that’s being stoked by government incentives. Lenders granted 66,735 mortgages, the most since February 2008, compared with a revised 63,396 the previous month, the Bank of England said in a report in London today. Home-loan rates fell to a record low, and gross mortgage lending was 15.6 billion pounds ($25 billion), the highest since October 2008. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Jumps Vs. Euro On Low Euro-Zone Inflation. The U.S. dollar jumped against the euro on Thursday as euro-zone inflation in October dropped below 1% to its lowest level in nearly four years. The euro plunged nearly 1% to $1.3587 from $1.3713 late Wednesday. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against the euro and five other currencies, rose to 80.221 from 79.849, leaving the index essentially flat on the month. The British pound rose to $1.6038 from $1.6011 on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was little changed in recent trade at 94.56 U.S. cents versus 94.52 U.S. cents late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Oil Falls, Spread Narrows On Profit-Taking. Brent crude futures dropped more than $1 on Thursday, reversing the previous session's gains, as traders booked profits and turned their focus to the end of the U.S. refinery maintenance season, which is expected to boost demand for U.S. crude. Brent crude for December delivery fell $1.02 to settle at $108.84 a barrel. U.S. crude pared earlier losses to settle down 39 cents a barrel at $96.38. It posted a 5.8 % drop for the month, its biggest such drop in a year. (Reuters)

Gold Drops 1.4 Pct On Month-End Profit Taking, Dollar Rise. Gold and other precious metals fell on Thursday as commodity funds sold to square books at the end of October, and as investors kept selling after the Federal Reserve's latest policy outlook offered few surprises. Spot gold was down 1.4 % at $1,323.69 an ounce by 4:07 p.m. EDT (2007 GMT). Silver underperformed gold and was the biggest decliner in the 19-commodity Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB index. It fell 3.3 % at $21.90 an ounce, its biggest oneday loss in more than a month. Spot platinum was down 1.5 % at $1,447.24 an ounce, while spot palladium fell 1 % to $735.22 an ounce. (Reuters)

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