Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 11 Nov 2013, 09:42 AM

Asia

- China Trade Data Adds To Recovery Hopes. China's exports and imports rose in October, the latest in a series of figures indicating a recovery. Exports, a key driver of its growth, rose 5.6% from a year earlier, while imports jumped 7.6%. This follows data released this month which showed that manufacturing activity in China grew at its fastest pace in 18 months in October. The numbers come ahead of key meetings of China's Communist Party, with economic reforms set to be discussed. (BBC)

- China October Factory Output Stronger Than Expected. China's industrial output rose 10.3 % in October from a year earlier, beating market expectations, while retail sales were up 13.3 %, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday. Fixed-asset investment, an important driver of economic activity, climbed 20.1 % in the first 10 months from the same period last year, the bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast industrial output to rise 10 % and retail sales to rise 13.4 %. Fixed-asset investment for the January-October period was seen up 20.1 %. (Reuters)

- Chinese Inflation Up, But Not As Much As Expected. China's annual consumer inflation climbed to an eight-month high of 3.2 % in October, driven by food prices, data showed on Saturday, adding to market worries about policy tightening as the world's secondlargest economy stabilizes. Inflation, which quickened slightly from 3.1 % in September, was lower than a median forecast of 3.3 % in a Reuters poll and was below the official target of 3.5 % for 2013. (Reuters)

North America

- US Job Creation Stronger In October. The US economy added a better-than-expected 204,000 jobs in October, according to the latest figures from the Labor Department. There had been fears that the 16-day shutdown of government services last month could have hit jobs growth. The monthly non-farm payroll figure is taken as a key indicator of the health of the world's biggest economy. However, the latest figures also showed that the unemployment rate edged up to 7.3% from 7.2% in September. (BBC)

- Obama Urges Infrastructure Spending To Spur U.S. Economy. President Barack Obama sought to put aside turmoil with the rollout of the federal health insurance marketplace by focusing on the billions of dollars in public investments he says the U.S. needs to boost the economy. Speaking yesterday at the Port of New Orleans, Obama urged Congress to get past partisan battles and pass a budget that increases spending on science, research and education, and upgrades roads, bridges and ports. Lawmakers are negotiating a budget deal before the current spending authorization runs out Jan. 15. (Bloomberg)

- Canada Unemployment Rate Holds At 6.9% In October. Canada’s unemployment rate remained at the lowest since 2008 in October as government workers led the third straight month of job gains. Employment rose by 13,200 and the jobless rate held at 6.9%, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected unemployment would increase to 7% and employers would add 11,000 positions, according to median forecasts. (Bloomberg)

Europe

- France's Credit Rating Cut By S&P To AA. Standard and Poor's (S&P) has cut France's credit rating to AA from AA+. The moves comes almost two years after the country lost its top-rated AAA status. S&P said it downgraded France because high unemployment in the country was making it hard for the government to make important reforms which would boost growth, The French government responded by saying that its debt rating was one of the safest in the eurozone. S&P said it expected government debt to hit 86% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015 and unemployment to remain above 10% until 2016. (BBC)

- UK Goods Trade Deficit Widens In September. The gap between imports and exports of goods was at its widest for almost a year in September, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The ONS said the goods trade deficit widened to £9.816bn, compared with £9.557bn in August. Including services, in which the UK traditionally has a surplus, the overall trade deficit also widened slightly to £3.268bn. Separate ONS data brought disappointing news from the construction sector. The ONS said the UK's construction sector grew by 1.7% in the third quarter of 2013, but this was slower than the initial estimate of 2.5%. (BBC)

Currencies

- Dollar Jumps On October U.S. Job Gains. The U.S. dollar jumped Friday after the U.S. created twice as many jobs in October as Wall Street had expected, sparking yet another round of discussion about when the Federal Reserve could slow its bond buys. The ICE dollar index, which compares the U.S. currency with six top rivals, jumped to 81.255 from 80.841 late Thursday in North America. The index, which is heavily skewed to the performance of the euro, was at 80.914 just before the report hit. The euro fell to $1.3361 from $1.3417 late Thursday, for a weekly loss of 0.9% against the greenback. The Australian dollar took a hit early Friday in Asia after a statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicated another rate cut was possible. The British pound fell to $1.5995 from $1.6076, while the dollar jumped to ¥99.00 from ¥97.96 late Thursday. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

- Gold Falls 1.7 Pct As U.S. Payrolls Rekindle Taper Fears. Gold dropped 1.7 % on Friday, notching its biggest one-day fall in more than a month, as surprisingly strong U.S. jobs data raised the prospect that the Federal Reserve may soon decide to temper its bondbuying stimulus. Spot gold was down 1.7 % at $1,285.06 an ounce by 3:20 p.m. EST (2020 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver was down 1% at $21.43 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.6 % to $1,439.49 an ounce, while palladium dropped 0.4 % to $755.47 an ounce.(Reuters)

- Oil Gains But Flat On Week As Iran Talks Progress. Oil for December delivery tacked on 40 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $94.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices, which lost 60 cents in the previous session, closed last Friday at $94.61. On the ICE Futures exchange, December Brent crude added $1.66, or 1.6%, to $105.12 a barrel after dropping 1.7% on Thursday. Prices were still down 0.8% for the week. (Market Watch)

Source: Kenanga

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