Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 14 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 14 Nov 2013, 09:47 AM

Asia

 Indonesia Plans US$35b Projects. Indonesia yesterday announced plans for US$35 billion in new infrastructure projects from next year in a bid to tackle one of the biggest deterrents to investment in Southeast Asia's biggest economy. Of the 56 planned projects, 32 are meant to be partnerships between the private and public sector, which Indonesia calls "PPP" ventures. "We want the PPP scheme to dominate the development projects," said chief economic minister Hatta Rajasa, adding that there would have to be incentives to attract private investors. Indonesia has attracted record applications for foreign investment in recent years, but the level has started to slow in the face of a weaker global economy and severe infrastructure bottlenecks. (Reuters)

 China Banks' Bad Loans Up Most In 8 Years. Bad loans held by Chinese banks rose by the largest amount in eight years in the third quarter, adding to concerns about excessive debt as the world's second largest economy slows. Bad bank loans outstanding rose by 24.1 billion yuan to 563 billion yuan at the end of September, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. That marked the largest quarterly rise in the volume of bad loans since the fourth quarter of 2005. Due to swift overall loan growth in the third quarter, however, Chinese banks' non-performing loan (NPL) ratio ticked up only slightly. The system-wide NPL ratio reached 0.97 % from 0.96 % from the end of June, the commission said. Analysts believe the official NPL ratio understates the true extent of bad loans on balance sheets. (Reuters)

USA

 Budget Deficit In U.S. Narrows On Record Revenue For October. The U.S. budget deficit last month narrowed more than economists forecast as rising employment contributed to the strongest October revenue on record. Spending exceeded receipts by $91.6 billion last month, compared with a $120 billion shortfall in October 2012, the U.S. Treasury Department said today in Washington. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 16 economists was for a $102 billion deficit last month. Monthly revenue jumped about 8% from a year earlier while outlays dropped 4.5 %, the report showed. (Bloomberg)

 Mortgage Applications Dip In Latest Week. Applications for U.S. home loans slipped in the latest week, although a drop in the previous week was revised to a smaller fall than previously reported, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 1.8 % in the week ended Nov. 8. The index fell a revised 2.8 % in the previous week. That drop had previously been reported at 7 %. (Reuters)

 Yellen Says Economy Performing ‘Far Short’ Of Potential. Janet Yellen, nominated to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the economy and labor market are performing “far short of their potential” and must improve before the Fed can begin reducing monetary stimulus. “A strong recovery will ultimately enable the Fed to reduce its monetary accommodation and reliance on unconventional policy tools such as asset purchases,” Yellen, the Fed’s vice chairman, said in testimony prepared for her nomination hearing tomorrow before the Senate Banking Committee. “I believe that supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy.” (Bloomberg)

Europe

 Germany Under Review Over Economic Role In EU. A review by the European Commission is looking into whether Germany's international trade surplus is hampering Europe's economic recovery. Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said it wanted to see if Germany "could do more" to help rebalance the European economy. The Commission is also scrutinising 15 other European countries for not meeting EU economic targets. France, Italy and Hungary were also told to take "decisive policy action". (BBC)

 UK Jobless Rate Falls To Three-Year Low As Economy Grows. The number of unemployed people in the UK fell by 48,000 to 2.47 million between July and September, the Office for National Statistics has said. The unemployment rate fell to 7.6%, the lowest rate in more than three years. The Bank of England has said it will not consider raising interest rates from their record low of 0.5% until the unemployment rate falls to 7%. (BBC)

Currencies

 Dollar Falls As Investors Look Ahead To Yellen Hearing. The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen, the nominee to lead the Federal Reserve at a time when it is likely to pull back from its unprecedented stimulus. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against six other currencies, fell to 80.938 from 81.144 on Tuesday. The pound jumped to $1.6027 in recent trade from $1.5902 on Tuesday. The euro tumbled to an intraday low of $1.3388 in the wake of the report. The shared currency has since recovered, rising to $1.3458 from $1.3435 late Tuesday. In other action, the Australian dollar rose to 93.26 U.S. cents from 93.01 U.S. cents on Tuesday, and dollar fell to ¥99.43 from ¥99.67. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 US Oil Output Beats Imports For First Time In 25 Years. US domestic crude oil production has exceeded oil imports for the first time since 1995, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The EIA said petroleum imports were at their lowest since 1991, partially due to surging domestic oil production from hydraulic fracturing, or fracking. In October, US crude oil output averaged at 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd). The EIA says it expects output to exceed 8.8 million bpd by 2014. (BBC)

 Brent Edges Above $106; Fed Stimulus, Oil Stocks In Focus. Brent crude climbed above $106 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering some lost ground after oil was hit by speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve may soon start to reduce its monetary stimulus and expectations of a build-up in U.S. crude stocks. Brent for December delivery was 25 cents higher at $106.06 per barrel at 0208 GMT, after settling 59 cents lower on Tuesday. U.S. crude was up 15 cents at $93.19 per barrel. The contract fell more than $2 a barrel on Tuesday, hitting a four-and-a-half-month low. (Reuters)

 Gold Ends Up On Dollar Fall, Breaks Four-Day Drop. Gold prices eked out a small gain on Wednesday to snap a four-day losing streak, boosted by a drop in the dollar and bargain hunting with prices near a one-month low. Spot gold gained 0.2 % to $1,269.84 an ounce by 2:22 p.m. Silver dropped 1 % at $20.49 an ounce after dropping 3 % in the previous session to a four-week low. Platinum was down 0.3 % at $1,425.90 an ounce and palladium fell 1 % to $729.75 an ounce. (Reuters) 

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