Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 20 Nov 2013, 10:02 AM

Global

OECD Revises Down Global Economic Growth Forecasts. Global growth for 2013 and 2014 has been downgraded "significantly" after weak prospects in emerging markets, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Global GDP this year is now expected to grow by 2.7%, down from 3.1% forecast in May. But it said global economic growth would speed up by 2015. The OECD also revised down its global growth forecast for 2014, which it now estimates at 3.6%. In May, it had forecast 4%. In a first estimate for 2015, it predicts growth of 3.9%. (BBC)

Asia

South Korea's Household Debt Grows In 2013. The debt burden carried by South Korean households edged up this year as debts grew at a brisker pace than incomes, a survey said on Tuesday, putting pressure on policy-makers aiming to maintain a steady recovery in Asia's fourth-largest economy. Total debt at South Korean households grew by an average 6.8% to 58.18 million won (US$55,000) as of March this year, of which 39.67 million won was in the form of financial debt, the survey by the central bank and two top local authorities found. In comparison, annual disposable income rose by 4.9% in 2012, resulting in the ratio of financial debt to disposable income rising to 108.8% in this year's survey, from 106% in 2012. (Reuters)

Foreign Investment In China Up 5.8% In First 10 Months. China has attracted 5.77% more foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first 10 months of the year, compared to 2012. Government figures show FDI totalled $97bn over the period. In October alone, the country attracted $8.4bn - an increase on a year earlier but down from September's figure. Ministry of Commerce spokesman Shen Danyang said foreign investment policy would remain stable and transparent as China carried out its reform agenda, Reuters reports. (BBC)

USA

Treasury 10-Year Yield Rises From 1-Week Low on Fed Speculation. Treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up from a one-week low, before a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that may help gauge the outlook for monetary stimulus. U.S. debt had rallied since Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, in her confirmation hearing Nov. 14 to be the next Fed chairman, said she’ll ensure stimulus isn’t removed too soon. The central bank will release minutes of its October meeting tomorrow. U.S. 10-year yields rose four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.71 percent as of 5:06 p.m. New York time, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. Yields fell earlier to 2.66 percent, the least since Nov. 8. The price of the 2.75 percent note due in November 2023 fell 11/32, or $3.44 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 3/8. (Bloomberg)

Yellen Reiterates Support For Fed's Bond Buying. Janet Yellen says a "strong majority" of Federal Reserve officials think the Fed's low-interest-rate policies have supported a still-recovering U.S. economy. Responding to questions from members of the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said the U.S. economy would likely be weaker if the central bank had not acted aggressively. "While monetary policy is not a panacea for all of the nation's economic difficulties, our economic situation would almost certainly be far worse had the Federal Reserve not acted aggressively," Yellen said in response to questions from Sen. David Vitter, R-La., a critic of the Fed's bond buying who has said he'll vote against her nomination. Yellen's remarks suggested that the Fed is standing behind its $85 billion a month in bond purchases for now. She said it's monitoring potential risks. (AP)

Obama Says He Does Not Foresee January Repeat Of Debt-Ceiling Crisis. President Barack Obama said on Tuesday he does not foresee a repeat in January of the "crisis" seen in October, when the federal government was shut down for 16 days and a debt default was narrowly averted. "I'd like to believe that the Republicans recognize that was not a good strategy and we're probably better off with a system where that threat is not there on a perpetual basis," Obama told a Wall Street Journal conference. The last minute deal obtained in October requires Congress to reach an agreement on funding the government by January 15 and to raise the debt ceiling by February 7. (Reuters)

Europe

OECD Calls On ECB To Buy Euro Zone Assets. The European Central Bank must consider buying government and corporate bonds to help the euro zone avoid a Japanese-style deflationary spiral, the OECD said on Tuesday. It was a direct call for the ECB to undertake quantitative easing (QE), a policy that currently divides the bank, in the face of what the think-tank said was a risk of deflation. Inflation in the 17-nation euro zone fell to its lowest in nearly four years in October, with the economy struggling to recover strongly after emerging from its longest ever recession. Despite a surprise ECB rate cut this month, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest economic outlook that the bank needs to take bolder measures at a time of massive unemployment and difficult credit. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Inches Lower As Monetary Policy Dominates. The dollar inched lower against some rivals Tuesday as a lack of major U.S. economic data shifted the emphasis to the broader monetary-policy landscape across the globe. The euro edged up to $1.3528 in recent trade from Monday’s $1.3506, while the dollar rose to ¥100.20 from ¥99.90 late Monday. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. unit against six other currencies, declined to 80.709 from 80.774 late Monday. In other trade, the British pound rose to $1.6114 from $1.6098 late Monday. The Australian dollar gained to 94.15 U.S. cents from 93.65 U.S. cents late Monday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Sheds $1 A Barrel On Iran Talks, Libya Exports. Brent futures tumbled by more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday as talks this week between world powers and Iran could lead to an easing of sanctions against the oil-rich country. January Brent crude fell $1.55 to settle at $106.92 a barrel, for a third straight session loss. U.S. crude for December rose 31 cents to settle at $93.34, supported by traders unwinding the spread between Brent and U.S. crude that had widened past $15 during the session, and by the rollover into the January contract. (Reuters)

Gold Ends Nearly Flat, Fed Minutes In Focus. Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday, stabilizing after Monday's sharp losses, as investors looked forward to the minutes of the Fed's October meeting for clues about future monetary policy. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,274.44 an ounce by 3:05 p.m. EST (2005 GMT), after Monday's 1.2 % drop. Silver eased 1 cent at $20.37 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.2 % to $1,411.40 an ounce, benefiting from news that South African power utility Eskom had declared an emergency after the grid came under severe constraint due to the loss of additional generating units. Palladium was up 0.5 % to $718.47 an ounce. (Reuters)

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