Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 21 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 21 Nov 2013, 09:39 AM

Malaysia

Moody’s Raises Outlook On Malaysia To Positive From Stable. Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Malaysia's government bond and issuer ratings at A3. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. The international ratings agency said on Wednesday the change in the outlook was driven by improved prospects for fiscal consolidation and reform; and continued macroeconomic stability in the face of external headwinds. Moody's said it had also affirmed Malaysia's long-term foreign currency (FC) bond ceiling at A1 and its long-term FC bank deposit ceiling at A3. The short-term FC bond and bank deposit ceilings were affirmed at P-1. Moody's also affirmed the local currency (LC) country risk ceiling at A1. (The Star)

US To Remain As Top Investor In Malaysia. THE United States expects to retain its spot as Malaysia's top foreign investor next year. US ambassador to Malaysia Joseph Y. Yun said based on feedback from American companies operating in Malaysia, the trend of expanding via reinvestments is expected to continue. "US exporters are quite positive about expanding and we expect American investments in Malaysia to remain at the top spot in 2014," he told a press conference, here, yesterday, after meeting US investors operating in Penang and the northern states. He said apart from the electrical and electronics sector, which had seen many US investments, there is now interest in the health sector. (Business Times)

Asia

Japan In Biggest Annual Exports Rise For Three Years. Japan's exports have seen their biggest annual rise for three years. Exports rose 18.6% to 6.1 trillion yen ($61bn) in the year to October, largely thanks to more car shipments, its ministry of finance said. This was above analysts' forecasts of about 16.5%. A weak yen and an improving global economy has seen oversees demand pick up, but despite this and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's looser monetary policies, Japan's economy remains fragile. (BBC)

USA

Consumer Prices In U.S. Decline For First Time In Six Months. The cost of living in the U.S. declined in October for the first time in six months, showing inflation remains below the Federal Reserve’s goal. The consumer-price index dropped 0.1 %, reflecting cheaper energy, clothing and new cars, after a 0.2 % gain the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for no change. Excluding volatile food and fuel, the socalled core measure rose 0.1 %. (Bloomberg)

US Retail Sales Jump In October As Prices Tumble To 4-Year Low. A gauge of U.S. consumer spending rose more than expected in October as households bought a range of goods, suggesting upside momentum in the economy early in the fourth quarter. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline and building materials increased 0.5 % last month after advancing 0.3 % in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected so-called core sales, which correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product, to rise 0.3 %. (Reuters)

Fed Taper Likely In ‘Coming Months’ On Better Data. Federal Reserve officials said they might reduce their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases “in coming months” as the economy improves, minutes of their last meeting show. Policy makers “generally expected that the data would prove consistent with the Committee’s outlook for ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and would thus warrant trimming the pace of purchases in coming months,” according to the record of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Oct. 29-30 gathering, released today in Washington. (Bloomberg)

Debt Limit Rise May Not Be Needed Until June, CBO Says. The U.S. may be able to delay a debt-limit increase until as late as June 2014, theCongressional Budget Office said today. Under an agreement reached last month, Congress suspended the debt limit through Feb. 7, 2014. After that, the Treasury Department will be able to use so-called extraordinary measures to stave off default, such as suspending investments of a retirement fund. (Bloomberg)

Europe

EU Budget Gets The Nod. The European Union’s (EU) contested 2014-2020 budget cleared a final hurdle when it was approved by the European Parliament after months of bitter debate between EU institutions over planned spending cuts. The first-ever trimmed long-term budget was approved by a large majority of 682 MEPs (members of the European Parliament), including the conservatives and the socialists. The Greens and the radical left voted against. Known as the Multi-annual Financial Framework (MFF), the EU budget provides for 908 billion euros in payments against 960 billion euros in funding commitments, 3.7% and 3.5% less respectively than in the previous 2007-2013 budget. (AFP)

Bank Of England Says UK In Sustained Recovery. The UK is in a sustained recovery and does not face major inflation risks, Bank of England policymakers have said. Minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee's November meeting showed the nine members all voted to leave interest rates at 0.5%. The committee also signalled that it was in no rush to raise interest rates and might not do so immediately even after unemployment had fallen to 7%. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Up Vs. Euro On Potential For Diverging Policies. The U.S. dollar rose against the euro Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes suggested more willingness among officials to slow its bond buys, at the same time that the European Central Bank is mulling a potential deposit-rate cut into negative territory if more economic stimulus is needed. The euro fell to $1.3440 from $1.3528 late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six rivals, rose to 81.001 from 80.709 late Tuesday in North America. The British pound edged down to $1.6105 from $1.6114. The dollar traded at ¥100.02, down from ¥100.20 late Tuesday. The Australian dollar eased to 93.35 U.S. cents from 94.15 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Up $1 On Iran, Fed Weighs On U.S. Oil. Brent oil rose by more than $1 a barrel on Wednesday after a U.S. official said it would be "very hard" to get a nuclear agreement with Iran this week. Brent crude for January ended $1.14 a barrel higher at $108.06, after reaching a session high of $108.38. The December U.S. oil contract expired 1 cent lower at $93.33, after trading as high as $93.93. (Reuters)

Gold Slumps To Four-Month Low After Fed Minutes. Gold fell 2.5 % to a four-month low on Wednesday after minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting showed U.S. central bankers could start scaling back monetary stimulus at one of their next few meetings. Spot gold was down 2.4 % at $1,244.31 an ounce by 3:36 p.m. EST (2036 GMT), having dropped to a four-month low of $1,240.69. Silver was down 2.4 % at $19.83 an ounce, having touched a three-month low of $19.76. Platinum fell 1.6 % to $1,389 an ounce, having hit a one-month low at $1,388, while palladium dropped 1.4 % to $708.25 an ounce. (Reuters)

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