Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 Nov 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 22 Nov 2013, 10:02 AM

Malaysia

Govt Optimistic On 5.5% GDP Growth Next Year. The government is optimistic over Malaysia notching a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 5.5% next year, driven by strong economic fundamentals and the many projects to further strengthen the economy. Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Ahmad Maslan said the Malaysian economy is on track to achieve the full-year growth target of between 4.5% and 5% for 2013. He said this at a media briefing here today on the one-day seminar on national economic empowerment, on Nov 24. (The Star)

September Unemployment Rate Unchanged At 3.1%. The unemployment rate in the country remained unchanged at 3.1% in September, down from 3.2% in September 2012, the Statistics Department said. The increase in unemployed persons by 1.4% to 443,200 people and employed persons by 1% to 13.8 million people compared to July, resulted in an unchanged employment rate. The increase in the employed population was driven by the services and manufacturing sector, it added. (Bernama)

Malaysia Records Rm46bil Tourism Revenue For Jan-Sept. Malaysia's revenue from tourism rose 9.6% in the first nine months of this year with RM46.4bil collected, compared to RM42.4bil for the same period of 2012. Tourism and Culture Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Nazri Abdul Aziz said 18.8 million tourists arrived in the country between January and September against the 18.2 million in the corresponding period of last year. Speaking at the launch of the first Asia-Pacific Tourism, Hospitality and Technology (Apthat) Conference here today, he added that for the whole of last year, Malaysia recorded 25.03 million tourist arrivals, generating revenue of RM60.6bil. (Bernama)

Asia

BOJ's Kuroda, Upbeat On Global Outlook, Says Japan Recovery On Track. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the U.S. and euro zone economies are gaining strength, seeking to dispel concerns among other policymakers that Japan's export engine and broader recovery were vulnerable to weakness overseas. He was also optimistic about the prospects of the central bank meeting its inflation target, suggesting that any additional monetary stimulus would be some time away given the expected recovery in exports and firm household spending. His comments came after the BOJ, as widely expected, maintained the massive monetary stimulus put in place in April, under which it aims to achieve 2 % inflation in roughly two years by doubling base money through asset purchases. The central bank also retained its assessment the economy was recovering moderately. (Reuters)

Singapore Raises 2013 GDP Growth Forecast On Manufacturing. Singapore raised its growth forecast for 2013 after the economy unexpectedly expanded last quarter, supporting the central bank’s decision to forgo stimulus for the Southeast Asian nation. The economy will grow 3.5 % to 4 % in 2013 and expand as much as 4 % next year, the trade ministry said in a statement today. It had previously forecast growth of as much as 3.5 % in 2013. Gross domestic product expanded an annualized 1.3 % last quarter from the previous three months, compared with a 1 % decline estimated earlier. (Bloomberg)

China Manufacturing Gauge Declines In Growth Headwind. A Chinese manufacturing gauge declined for the first time in four months, adding headwinds to a recovery in the world’s second-largest economy as leaders start to implement the broadest policy reforms since the 1990s. The preliminary 50.4 reading for the November Purchasing Managers’ Index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics compared with a 50.8 median estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The final number for October was 50.9, and levels above 50 indicate expansion. (Bloomberg)

USA

US Claims Slide Sharply, Raising Hopes For Labor Market. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more thanexpected last week, suggesting some strengthening of labor market conditions. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 5,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had expected first time applications to fall to 335,000 last week. (Reuters)

Wholesale Prices In U.S. Fell In October For A Second Month. Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell in October for a second month, reflecting cheaper energy costs. The 0.2 % drop in the producer-price index followed a 0.1 % decline the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The decrease matched the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists. The so-called core measure, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2 % as the cost of cars jumped by the most in four years. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Business Activity Slows As Recovery Falters. Eurozone business activity slowed in November, a closely watched survey suggests, casting doubt on the strength of the region's economic recovery. The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), compiled by Markit Economics, fell to 51.5 from 51.9 in October. This is the second successive month the rate of growth has slowed, leading Markit to conclude that "momentum is being lost again". A score above 50 indicates growth. The composite index measures business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors combined. Taken separately, the manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, from 51.3 in October, while the services PMI fell sharply to 50.9, from 51.9. (BBC)

French Private Sector Contracts As Germany’s Grows. Business activity in the eurozone’s two largest economies is diverging sharply, with France’s private sector contracting after two months of growth while in Germany it accelerated to a 10-month high, according to a survey. Markit’s composite purchasing managers' index flash reading for France fell to 48.5, a five-month low, from 50.5 in both September and October. In Germany, the corresponding figure jumped to 54.3 from 53.2, while for the 17-nation single-currency bloc it dropped to 51.5 from 51.9. (Financial Times)

UK Public Finances Improve In October As Economy Grows. The UK's public finances improved in October, as a recovering economy and housing market boosted tax revenues. Borrowing, excluding the cost of interventions such as bank bailouts, fell to £8.08bn in October, down from £8.24bn in the same month last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The fall came despite the £2bn of shares sold in the flotation of Royal Mail not being included in the figures. Total net public debt rose to £1.207tn. This takes net public debt to 75.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), the highest %age for the month of October on record. (BBC)

Greece Sees Higher Budget Surplus, Still At Odds With Lenders. Greece more than doubled its forecast for a budget surplus before interest payments this year, hinting at light at the end of the tunnel for its battered economy and boosting its chances of securing more leeway on its debts to the EU and IMF. In a revised budget plan for 2014, Athens confirmed it would emerge from a six-year recession with growth of 0.6 % next year. The economy has shrunk by nearly a quarter since 2008 as it grappled with a deep financial crisis. Athens also predicted a primary budget surplus of 812 million euros this year thanks to higher than expected tax revenues, compared to a previous forecast of 344 million euros. Greece has been accused in the past of falsifying some budget data to secure entry to the euro zone a decade ago, but any such doubts over the current numbers have faded with the tight oversight imposed under its international bailout. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Above ¥101 As Focus Stays On Central Banks. The U.S. dollar rose above 101 Japanese yen Thursday, as investors continued to focus on monetary policy instead of economic data. The dollar rose to ¥101.11 on Thursday morning from ¥100.02 late Wednesday. The British pound rose to $1.6161 from $1.6105 late Wednesday and the euro gained to $1.3462 from $1.3440. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, traded at 81.070, up from 81.001 late Wednesday in North America. The Australian dollar dropped to 92.21 U.S. cents from 93.35 U.S. cents late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Jumps $2, U.S. Gasoline Squeeze Aids Rally. Brent crude oil jumped $2 to end at its highest in more than a month on Thursday, fuelled by a sharp run-up in gasoline and gas oil prices on news of dwindling stocks and refinery glitches in the United States and Europe. Brent crude rose $2.02 to settle at $110.08. The contract breached the 100-day moving average of $109.36 for the first time in three weeks. Brent had touched a 4-month low of $102.98 per barrel on Nov. 8. U.S. oil settled $1.59 per barrel higher at $95.44, after reaching a high of $95.63. The contract had touched a five-month low of $92.43 on Tuesday. (Reuters)

Gold Rebounds As Bargain Hunting Offsets Fed Taper Concern. Gold prices rose on Thursday, rebounding from a four-month low set earlier in the session on renewed fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon be able to start scaling back its monetary stimulus. Spot gold fell to its lowest level since July 9 at $1,236.29 an ounce. Silver rose 0.7 % at $19.92 an ounce, having touched its lowest since mid-August on Wednesday. Platinum inched up 50 cents to $1,389.74 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.5 % to $712.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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