Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 4 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Wed, 04 Dec 2013, 10:14 AM

Malaysia

Moody's Justifies Positive A3 Rating For M'sia Based On Fiscal Consolidation And Reforms. The positive outlook for Malaysia’s A3 rating is based on the improved prospects for fiscal consolidation and reforms, as well as the country’s resilient growth, benign inflation rate and current account surplus, said Moody’s Investors Service. Moody’s said that while the execution of reforms would be politically and administratively challenging, it would result in narrower fiscal deficits that would stabilise the country’s debt dynamics. Moody’s noted that Malaysia’s sovereign rating was supported by the Government’s favourable debt structure, the depth of onshore capital markets and the high level of domestic savings. These factors mitigated the effects of wider fiscal deficits and a higher stock of debt as compared to its A-rated peers. Bernama quoated Moody’s vice-president of Sovereign Risk Group, Christian de Guzman as saying the new electricity tariff structure announced on Monday showed that the Government was on track to implement fiscal reforms. “The hike would have a one-off impact on inflation but it will run off,” he told a press conference yesterday. (The Star)

 

Asia Pacific

Singapore Nov PMI Eases On Slower Production, New Orders. The pace of growth in Singapore's manufacturing activity eased in November on weaker production and new orders, an industry survey showed on Tuesday, amid some signs of slowdown in the city-state's factory sector. The Singapore Institute of Purchasing & Materials Management's Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.8 from October's 51.2. A reading above 50 indicates that manufacturing sector activity is generally expanding, while levels below that point to a contraction. (Reuters)

Japan Salaries Extend Slide As Inflation Begins To Take Root. Japan’s salaries extended the longest tumble since 2010, increasing pressure on household finances as inflation begins to take root. Regular wages excluding overtime and bonuses fell 0.4 % in October from a year earlier, a 17th straight monthly decline, according to labor ministry data released today. Total cash earnings rose 0.1 %. (Bloomberg)

Australia Leaves Rates Steady, Warns On Aussie Dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday left its key interest rate steady at a record low of 2.5 %, as expected, and said the Australian dollar remains "uncomfortably high." In a statement following its final monetary policy meeting of the year, the RBA said the economy needs a weaker currency and that its sees below-trend growth continuing in the near term. (CNBC)

 

Americas

US Auto Sales Rise In Nov Boosted By Discounts. Major automakers reported their best U.S. sales month in six and a half years in November as aggressive discounting and the continued popularity of big pickup trucks helped trounceWall Street forecasts. The industry's annual U.S. sales pace reached 16.41 million vehicles last month, the best monthly showing since February 2007, according to industry research firm Autodata. This handily beat expectations for a rate of 15.75 million. (Reuters)

Brazil's Economy Shrinks 0.5% In The Third Quarter. Brazil's economy fell into contraction in the third quarter, with output shrinking by more than analysts had forecast, according to official state figures. The Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica (IBGE) said that Brazil's economy shrank by 0.5% in the quarter, compared to the previous one. Analysts had expected Brazil's economy to shrink by just 0.2%. However, compared with the same quarter last year, the economy grew 2.2%. (BBC)

 

Europe

UK Construction Growth Fastest Since August 2007. UK construction picked up speed in November with output rising at the fastest pace in more than six years. The Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the sector rose to 62.6 last month, up from 59.4 in October. The higher the reading above 50, the stronger the growth in activity. Tim Moore, senior economist with Markit, said: "Construction activity continues to spring back to life during the final months of 2013." However, he said the pick-up was being built on a low base, after years of shrinkage or tepid growth resulting from the credit crisis that was sparked in 2007. (BBC)

Euro Zone Factory Prices Slump To Nearly 4-Yr Low In October. Euro zone producer prices fell more than expected in October, data showed on Tuesday, with the annual inflation rate at a nearly 4-year low in a fresh sign of a sharp fall in inflationary pressures. Prices at factory gates in the 17 countries using the euro declined 0.5 % in October against September, the EU's statistics office said on Monday, the first monthly decline in five months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a decrease of 0.2 %. Changes in producer prices, unless absorbed by retailers, eventually translate into changes in the consumer price index, which the European Central Bank wants to keep below, but close to 2 %. Consumer inflation was 0.9 % year-on-year in November. (Reuters)

 

Currencies

Dollar Falls Broadly, Retreats Below ¥103. The dollar retreated below ¥103 as part of a broad decline Tuesday, as investors looked toward data later this week that could shed light on when the Federal Reserve could begin to reduce its unprecedented monetary stimulus. The dollar fell to ¥102.31 from ¥103.08 late Monday, when it firmly jumped above ¥103 for the first time since May 22. The euro gained to $1.3593 from $1.3537 late Monday, and the British pound rose to $1.6391 from $1.6351. The Australian dollar rose to 91.40 U.S. cents from 91.01 U.S. cents late Monday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the currency’s strength against six rivals, dropped to 80.605 from 80.918 late Monday. (Market Watch)

 

Commodities

Brent Steady Above $111 On Stronger Demand Outlook For Oil. Brent crude held steady above $111 a barrel on Tuesday on an improving demand outlook after recent strong global economic data and on worries of lower supplies. Brent crude for January delivery was unchanged at $111.45 a barrel at 0314 GMT, after settling $1.76 higher in the previous session. U.S. crude was up 25 cents at $94.07 a barrel, after settling up $1.10 on Monday. (Reuters)

Gold Rises After Sliding Early To Five-Month Low. Gold rose slightly on Tuesday, off an earlier five-month low on a crude oil rally and weaker dollar, and as the previous session's sharp decline triggered bargain hunting. Spot gold was up 0.2 % at $1,221.64 an ounce by 3:27 p.m. EST (2027 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver was down 0.3% at $19.07 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.1 % to $1,352.25 an ounce, and palladium climbed 0.4 % to $711.97 an ounce. (Reuters)

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