Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 12 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Thu, 12 Dec 2013, 09:41 AM

Malaysia

Production in October expanded by 1.7% YoY, following an increase of 1.0% previously. This is primarily due to stronger expansion from the manufacturing sector, specifically electrical and electronics (E&E). Compared to the previous month, production rose by 5.4% MoM. The 3-month moving average (3mma), which helps smoothen out seasonal factors saw overall production gaining 1.8% YoY, a moderation from 3.7% posted in month preceding. Industrial production yearto-date posted a 2.4% expansion compared to 4.2% in the same period in 2012.

Asia

China New Loans Exceed Estimates. China’s new yuan loans and broadest measure of credit exceeded estimates last month in data at odds with indications that the government wants to curb borrowing. New local-currency loans were 624.6 billion yuan ($103 billion), the People’s Bank of China said yesterday in Beijing, compared with the 580 billion yuan median estimate of 41 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Aggregate financing was 1.23 trillion yuan, topping all economists’ estimates, while M2 money supply increased 14.2 % from a year earlier. (Bloomberg)

India's Nov Trade Deficit Narrows On Falling Gold, Oil Imports. India's trade deficit narrowed in November as exports rose, while imports hit the lowest level in more than two-and-a-half years after gold shipments from overseas fell sharply, according to the trade ministry on Wednesday. Last month's deficit stood at $9.22 billion, the trade ministry said, compared with $10.56 billion in October - a traditional gold buying season. The deficit had previously narrowed to a two-and-a-halfyear low in September. Merchandise exports rose by 5.86 % year-on-year in November to $24.6 billion. Imports fell by 16.37 % year-on-year to $33.83 billion. Gold and silver imports slumped 80.49 % to $1.05 billion in November compared to a year earlier. (Reuters)

USA

US Congress Cross-Party Budget Deal Reached. A cross-party Congressional budget committee convened after an October government shutdown has reached an agreement on the federal budget. The proposed deal funds the government for two years and reduces the federal deficit by up to $23bn. It also avoids another government shutdown on 15 January when government funding is scheduled to run out. The new deal "cuts spending in a smarter way," Republican Congressman Paul Ryan said on Tuesday. (BBC)

New Estimate Says Budget Deal Raises Deficit $41b. Congress' budget office estimates that the just-announced budget deal would increase the deficit over the next two years by $41.4 billion. The analysis also says the deal would save taxpayers $23 billion, when calculated over the coming decade. But there's a cost when it comes to deficits. The budget office says the bipartisan agreement would increase the deficit by $23.2 billion in 2014 and by $18.2 billion the year after that. The deal permits $63 billion in relief from automatic spending cuts over the coming two years and substitutes $85 billion in longer-term savings and fee proposals over the coming decade. (AP)

US Runs $135.2 Billion Budget Deficit In November. The U.S. government ran a much smaller deficit through the first two months of the budget year than the same period last year, signaling further improvement in the nation's finances. The November deficit - the gap between what the government takes in and what it spends - totaled $135.2 billion, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. That's 21.4 % lower than November 2012. And through the first two months of the budget year the deficit totaled $226.8 billion, or 22.7 % lower than the same period a year ago. The budget year begins on Oct. 1. (AP)

S&P Downgrades US Growth Forecast. Standard & Poor's (S&P) credit ratings agency has lowered its U.S. growth forecast warning of "significant downside risks" from federal spending cuts. "We've lowered our forecast for U.S. GDP growth in light of the additional sequester spending cuts in 2014 as well as the potential for another political standoff in Washington after the October government shutdown," S&P said on Monday, ahead of the bipartisan budget deal struck in Washington. "We now expect the world's biggest economy to expand 2.6 % next year, down from our forecast of 3.1 % at last quarter's Credit Conditions Committee meeting," it added. (CNBC)

Europe

Ukraine Seeks $27.5 Billion In Aid From EU, Pm Says. Ukraine wants 20 billion euros ($27.54 billion) in aid from the European Union in return for signing an agreement on trade and cooperation, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said on Wednesday. In remarks made at a cabinet meeting, while thousands protested in the capital Kiev at Ukraine's decision to scrap plans to sign the agreement, Azarov urged the EU to understand the position of the country's industry. He said the 28-country bloc should join in mutually profitable projects in Ukraine, a former Soviet state of 46 million people reliant on Soviet-era steel and chemical production. Instead of signing agreements last month that would marked a symbolic move away from former Soviet master Moscow, Ukraine decided to rebuild economic ties with Russia, prompting protests by demonstrators who want President Viktor Yanukovich to quit. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Treads Water In Anticipation Of Fed. The U.S. dollar was little changed on Wednesday as market participants looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival units, was at 79.877 versus late Tuesday’s 79.976. The euro rose to $1.3786 from $1.3760 late Tuesday. The British pound fell to $1.6379 from $1.6441. In other trade, the dollar fell to ¥102.40 from ¥102.80 in late trade Tuesday. The Australian dollar fell to 90.57 U.S. cents from 91.51 U.S. cents, with a key measure of consumer confidence falling sharply to its lower point since July. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Crude Rises, U.S. Crude Falls As Spread Widens. Brent oil rose on supply concerns as traders remained skeptical that Libyan oil exports would resume while U.S. crude fell after government data showed large builds in refined oil products, suggesting sluggish oil demand. Brent crude oil rose 32 cents to settle at $109.70 a barrel, after notching a session low of $108.62. U.S. crude futures for January delivery fell $1.07 to $97.44. (Reuters)

Gold Falls After 3-Day Rise; Eyes On Next Fed Move. Gold prices fell on Wednesday after a three-day rally driven by investors short-covering, as a tentative U.S. budget deal supported expectations for an earlier reduction in U.S. monetary stimulus. Spot gold was 0.6 % lower at $1,252.50 an ounce by 3:59 PM EST (2059 GMT), having hit its highest in three weeks on Tuesday. Other precious metals were mostly lower in line with gold. Silver was down 0.4 % on the day at $20.27 an ounce, while platinum was down 0.2 % at $1,381.75 and palladium edged up 0.1 % to $736.25. (Reuters)

Source: Kenanga

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