Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Fri, 13 Dec 2013, 09:34 AM

Malaysia

Zeti: M'sia On Track For 4.5%-5% GDP Growth This Year. Malaysia is on track to achieving a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between 4.5%- 5% this year and 5%-5.5% in 2014 on improved external factors, said Bank Negara Malaysia Governor, Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz. "Based on all the indicators we have seen, this will be achieved."Going forward in 2014, if the trend of the external factors continues to improve, as it has during the second half of this year, we expect the growth to (further) improve," she told reporters Zeti said domestic demand, which continued to register positive growth, had been growing in the region of 7%-8%. (Bernama)

Asia

India CPI Tops 11% As Industrial Output Slows In Rajan Test. India’s consumer-price inflation exceeded 11 percent, adding pressure on central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan to raise interest rates again next week even as industrial output slid more than expected. Consumer prices rose a more-than-estimated 11.24 percent in November from a year earlier, official data today showed. Most economists in a Bloomberg News survey predict Rajan will hold the benchmark interest rate at 7.75 percent in a policy decision due Dec. 18, after increasing it 50 basis points since becoming head of the Reserve Bank of India in September. (Bloomberg)

USA

Retail Sales In U.S. Increase By Most In Five Months. Americans flocked to stores and auto dealerships in November as retail sales climbed the most in five months, a sign consumer spending is emerging from a third-quarter lull. The 0.7 percent gain followed a 0.6 percent advance in October that was larger than first reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. November sales excluding receipts at gas stations climbed the most since September 2012, reflecting broad-based strength from Internet retailers to furniture outlets to electronics and appliances establishments. (Bloomberg)

Jobless Claims In U.S. Surge In Week After Thanksgiving. Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped last week from an almost three-month low, reflecting volatility that typically occurs around the year-end holidays. Jobless claims surged by 68,000 to a two-month high of 368,000 in the period ended Dec. 7, exceeding the highest forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. The 300,000 applications filed in the prior week, which included Thanksgiving, were the fewest since Sept. 7. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK: Earnings Rise Slower Than Inflation For Fifth Year Running. Average earnings in the UK have risen by less than the rate of inflation for the fifth year running, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). In the year ending April 2013, the ONS said pre-tax pay reached £27,000 a year, an increase of 2.1% over 2012. However, inflation over the same period, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), was 2.4%. The figures show that workers continue to see a squeeze in their pay. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Rises As Retail Sales Improve. The dollar rose Thursday after U.S. retail sales gained momentum in November, adding to speculation about when the Federal Reserve could begin to slow its monthly bond purchases. The dollar jumped to ¥103.30 from ¥102.40 late Wednesday. The ICE dollar index — a weighted measure of the dollar’s rate against six other currencies — rose to 80.202 from 79.877 late Wednesday in North America. The Australian dollar dropped to 89.27 U.S. cents from 90.57 U.S. cents late Wednesday. In other trade, the euro declined to $1.3748 from late Wednesday’s $1.3786, while the British pound eased to $1.6345 from $1.6379. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Falls On Libya Supply, Fed; Spread Narrows. Brent oil futures tumbled by more than $1 on Thursday as traders anticipated an increase in Libyan oil supply and expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve would soon start to unwind its stimulus program, which has supported commodity prices. Brent crude oil pared about 50 cents of losses after the news, but ultimately settled $1.03 lower at $108.67 a barrel, after hitting a session low of $108.51. Brent prices dropped further in post-settlement trading to $108.46 per barrel. U.S. crude futures for January delivery rose 6 cents to settle at $97.50 a barrel. Brent's premium to U.S. oil narrowed by more than $1 to settle at $11.17. (Reuters)

Gold Tumbles 2 Percent As US Retail Sales Data Boosts Dollar. Gold prices fell 2 percent on Thursday as upbeat U.S. retail sales data boosted the dollar and stoked expectations that the Federal Reserve could reduce its bond-buying stimulus soon. Spot gold fell 2 percent to $1,226.86 an ounce by 2:13 p.m. EST. Among other precious metals, silver dropped 3.9 percent to $19.48 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.4 percent to $1,360.74 and palladium was down 2.7 percent to $715.25. (Reuters)

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