Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 16 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 16 Dec 2013, 09:36 AM

Asia

Japan Nudges Up 2014 Fiscal Growth Forecast. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has decided to raise Japan's real GDP growth forecast to 1.3 % for the fiscal year starting March 2014 from the 1.0 % forecast previously, an official with knowledge of the process told Reuters on Saturday. The government's growth forecast underpins its expectation for tax revenue and is part of the annual budget review. The government projects about 50 trillion yen ($484.8 billion) in tax revenue for the coming fiscal year based on the revised growth forecast, the official told Reuters. (Reuters)

Japan, Myanmar Ink Investment Pact. Japan and Myanmar yesterday signed an investment treaty to nurture closer business ties as the once secluded Southeast Asian country opens its fast-growing economy to more foreign commerce. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Myanmar President Thein Sein signed the deal in summit talks following a gathering of leaders from Asean here. The treaty calls for Japanese investors to receive the same protections provided to other foreign investors under international rules and prohibits the imposition of export, technology transfer or other requirements in exchange for such investments. It is also intended to improve transparency, key for a country struggling with endemic corruption. Japan is Myanmar's largest aid donor. To help clear the way for the investment treaty, Tokyo agreed to forgive about US$5.32 billion in debt owed by Myanmar and extended bridge loans to help clear the rest. (AP)

USA

Producer Prices Slip In November, Hinting At Lack Of Inflation. U.S. producer prices fell for a third straight month in November, pointing to a lack of inflation that could give the Federal Reserve pause as it weighs the future of its monthly bond purchases. The Labor Department said on Friday its seasonally adjusted producer price index slipped 0.1 % as gasoline prices maintained their downward trend. Prices received by the nation's farms, factories and refineries had dipped 0.2 % in October. Economists polled by Reuters had expected wholesale prices would be flat in November. (Reuters)

Europe

Ireland PM Enda Kenny Says The Country's 'Credibility' Is Restored. The Irish Republic's prime minister has marked the end of the country's bailout programme with a speech to the nation. In a televised address, Enda Kenny said Ireland's "good name and our credibility" had been restored. He warned that difficult economic decisions remained, with a new medium-term economic plan due to be set out this week. But he promised that never again would "Ireland's stability be threatened by speculation and greed". Ireland is the first eurozone nation to complete the lending deal put in place by a group of international lenders, known as the troika. The country was rescued with a three-year 85bn euro ($117bn) package when borrowing on the financial markets became too expensive and Ireland faced bankruptcy. (BBC)

Post-Bailout Ireland Looks For Tax Cuts. The Irish government hopes to use its new-found economic freedom to cut income taxes on its austerity-fatigued people signalling Dublin plans to shake up its fiscal policy after exiting its three-year bailout this weekend. "Even when things were at their worst in the last three years we reduced some taxes," said Michael Noonan, Ireland's finance minister. "We see tax as an instrument of economic policy and the same approach will be followed when we look at income tax in the next two budgets." Ireland will become the first euro zone country to exit from an international bailout on Sunday, a hugely symbolic moment. (Financial Times)

UK House Building Lifts October Construction Output, ONS Says. Output in the UK construction industry rose by 2.2% in October, fuelled by a big increase in house building, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). New housing rose 5.8% from the previous month, while repairs were also up, but other types of new work declined. The figures mark a sharp improvement from September, when construction output shrank by 0.5%. The latest figure means that output is up 5.3% on the year. The ONS said increased demand for housing could be spurring construction in the housing sector. (BBC)

Currencies

Japan Expands Deals. Japan has expanded currency swap agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines, officials said, as Tokyo looks to bolster regional relations to counter the growing influence of China. The deals – along with the renewal of an expired agreement with Singapore – came as Tokyo hosted a special three-day summit with leaders from Asean to mark the 40th anniversary of ties between the sides. On Friday, Japan said it has nearly doubled its bilateral swap arrangement with Jakarta to US$22.76bil from US$12bil, as concerns rumble about the possible impact of the US Federal Reserve scaling back its massive stimulus programme. Japan also agreed to boost its arrangement with the Philippines to US$12bil from US$6bil, although officials in Tokyo added that the two have yet to decide when the accord is to take effect. Separately, Tokyo and Singapore agreed to renew a combined US$4bil swap deal, which expired two years ago. (AFP)

Aussie Slumps 1.6% Vs. U.S. Dollar For The Week. The Australian dollar slumped 1.6% against the U.S. dollar this week, weighed on by remarks from its top central banker and expectations about U.S. monetary policy. The Australian dollar edged up to 89.61 U.S. cents from 89.27 U.S. cents late Thursday. The ICE dollar index , which compares the U.S. unit to six rivals, inched up to 80.224 from 80.202 late Thursday in North America. The dollar traded at ¥103.22, near Thursday’s ¥103.30. The euro, which hit its own five-year high against the yen earlier in the week, fell to ¥141.70 from ¥142.33 late Thursday. In other trade, the euro edged down to $1.3731 from late Thursday’s $1.3748, while the British pound eased to $1.6294 from $1.6345. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Slips On Fed Tapering Speculation. U.S. crude futures fell on Friday on expectations the Federal Reserve could announce a pullback of its bond-buying program as early as next week. U.S. crude futures for January delivery fell 90 cents to settle at $96.60 a barrel, posting a 1 % loss on the week. At this week's high of $98.75 reached on Wednesday, U.S. futures prices had gained $5 since the beginning of December. Brent January crude on Friday rose 16 cents to settle at $108.83 a barrel, after losing more than $1 on Thursday. Brent posted a weekly loss of 2.5 %. (Reuters)

Gold Rises 1 Pct On Bargain Hunting, Posts Weekly Gain. Gold rose 1 % on Friday, helped by bargain-hunting after a sharp two-day plunge, but analysts said the market remains vulnerable to the downside ahead of the all-important Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. Spot gold climbed 1.1 % to $1,237 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. EST (2022 GMT). U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up $9.70 at $1,234.60, with trading volume about 40 % below its 30-day average, preliminary Reuters data showed. Silver took its cue from gold, rising 1.1 % to $19.67 an ounce. Platinum eased 0.1 % to $1,357.70, and palladium also dropped 0.1 % to $714. (Reuters)

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