Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 23 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 23 Dec 2013, 09:44 AM

Malaysia

World Bank Praises M'sian Banking Sector. The World Bank has given a vote of confidence to Malaysia’s banking sector, saying it is poised for further growth next year, with strong prospects and profitability. Jose de Luna Martinez, the bank’s senior financial economist, financial and private sector development vice-president, said the World Bank considered Malaysia a success story in terms of financial inclusion and quality of banking regulations and supervision. He said Malaysia was on the path to becoming a high-income nation by 2020 and that the financial system would play a key role in achieving this aspiration. (Bernama)

Asia

Japan Unveils Record 2014 Budget Draft As Debt Burden Mounts. Japan unveiled a record budget for the next fiscal year, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe boosts spending on social security, defense and public works while trying to contain the growth of the world’s biggest debt burden. Government ministers and the ruling coalition adopted the 95.88 trillion yen ($921 billion) budget proposal for the fiscal year starting April 1 at a meeting yesterday in Tokyo, Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters. Japan will issue 41.25 trillion yen of new revenue bonds, Aso said, less than the 42.9 trillion yen earmarked in this year’s initial budget. (Bloomberg)

Japan Forecasts GDP Growth Of 1.4% For 2014. The Japanese government forecast on Saturday that the country's real gross domestic product will grow by 1.4 % for the fiscal year starting March 2014, slowing from an expected 2.6 % growth for the current year as a planned sales tax increase is seen dampening consumption. The forecast is part of the annual budget review. The government projects about 50 trillion yen ($480.33 billion) in tax revenue for the coming fiscal year based on the growth forecast. (Reuters)

China To Build Six Million Public Homes. China aims to start building at least six million units of public housing next year, state media said on Saturday, reinforcing a government effort to supply more low-cost homes to counter record property prices. But next year’s target is lower than the 2013 objective, even though China built more public homes this year than it had planned, Xinhua said, citing the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ministry. (Reuters)

USA

Third-Quarter Growth In U.S. Revised Higher On Services. The economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest rate in almost two years as Americans stepped up spending on services such as health care and companies invested more in software. Gross domestic product climbed at a revised 4.1 % annualized rate, the strongest since the final three months of 2011 and up from a previous estimate of 3.6 %, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. The gain exceeded the most optimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg)

Economic Growth In U.S. To Quicken Next Year, Lagarde Says. The International Monetary Fund is raising its outlook for the U.S. economy, as a budget deal in Washington and the Federal Reserve’s plan to taper its bond buying ease doubts about the future, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said. Lagarde’s optimism follows a report this month that showed the labor market is improving while investors pushed stocks to record highs. In October, the IMF said the U.S. economy would expand 2.6 % next year, compared with 1.6 % in 2013. While she didn’t specify any new figures in the interview, the Washington-based fund typically issues revised forecasts in January. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Euro Zone Consumer Confidence Improves In Dec. Consumer morale in the euro zone improved more than expected in December, data from the European Commission showed on Friday, signalling that the nascent economic recovery may be starting to positively affect household sentiment. Confidence in the 17 countries using the euro improved to -13.6 points from a dip to -15.4 in November, returning to a series of gains that began in late 2012 when the bloc first began to show signs of life after twin banking and public debt crises nearly broke it apart. Economists polled by Reuters expected consumer confidence to improve to -15.0 points in December. (Reuters)

UK Economy Growing Faster Than Forecast, The ONS Says. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said gross domestic product was up 0.8% in the July-to-September period compared with the previous quarter, confirming its previous estimate. But it revised its growth figures for earlier quarters. This means the estimated annual growth rate has now risen from 1.5% to 1.9%, a revision that has surprised economists. A Treasury spokesman said: "Today's data show that the recovery has been stronger than previously thought and that the government's long-term economic plan is working. "But risks remain and the job is not done, so the government will go on taking the difficult decisions needed to deliver a responsible recovery for all." Despite the strengthening economy, underlying public sector net debt rose to a new monthly record of 76.6% of gross domestic product. (BBC)

Irish GDP Growth Helped By Construction, Figures Show. A stronger construction sector drove growth in the Republic of Ireland's economy in the July-to-September quarter, official figures show. Gross domestic product expanded 1.5% quarter-on-quarter. However, Ireland's trade-dependent economy continued to feel the impact of the downturn in Europe, with exports down by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. According to a breakdown of sectors, the data from the Central Statistics Office showed that industry - which includes building and construction - expanded by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter. (BBC)

German Yields Rise To Two-Month High As Fed Slows Bond Purchases. Germany’s 10-year bond yields climbed to a two-month high after the Federal Reserve said this week it would reduce the pace of its asset purchases, damping demand for government debt. Germany’s 10-year yield rose four basis points, or 0.04 %age point, in the week to 1.87 % as of 5 p.m. London time yesterday, after climbing to 1.91 %, the highest since Oct. 17. The 2 % bund due in August 2023 dropped 0.375, or 3.75 euros per 1,000-euro ($1,368) face amount, to 101.13. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Takes A Breather From Fed-Fueled Gains. The dollar fell against most rivals Friday, taking a breather from its upward march visible since the Federal Reserve said two days ago that it would slow its bond-buying stimulus. The ICE dollar index — which tracks the currency against six others — edged down to 80.556 from 80.632 late Thursday, but netted a weekly gain of 0.45%. The dollar edged down to ¥104.05 from late Thursday’s ¥104.19, but gained 0.8% on the week. Meanwhile, the euro edged up to $1.3671 from $1.3657, and the Australian dollar increased to 89.18 U.S. cents from Thursday’s 88.57 U.S. cents. The British pound fell to $1.6328 from $1.6372. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Rises, Gasoline Higher On Refinery Outages. Oil prices rose and gasoline futures hit a three-month high on Friday, fueled by spread trading and supply concerns. Brent crude gained $1.48 to settle at $111.77 a barrel. U.S. oil settled up 28 cents at $99.32 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Up, But On Track For Biggest Annual Loss In 32 Years. Gold rebounded from an early dip to a six-month low on short covering on Friday, but is still on track for its largest annual loss in 32 years, as the Federal Reserve's plan to scale back its monetary stimulus and expectations of narrower U.S. government deficits have weighed on bullion. Spot gold hit its lowest since June on Friday at $1,185.10 an ounce, closing in on a 3-1/2-year low reached on June 28. Among other precious metals, silver gained 0.8 % to $19.39 an ounce. Platinum was up 1.1 % to $1,329.75 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.2 % to $695 an ounce. (Reuters)

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