Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 24 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Tue, 24 Dec 2013, 09:54 AM

Asia

China’s 2012 Local Govt Debt Seen At US$3tril. China's total local government debt may have reached 19.9 trillion yuan (US$3.28tril) by the end of 2012, almost double that of two years previously, a media report said on Monday, citing a private study by a government think tank. Local government debt in China has surged in recent years as credit flowed into the building of public infrastructure. Poor government disclosure on debt levels, however, has aggravated concerns about the true size of the debt. China's National Audit Office said in July it would conduct an audit of all government debt at the request of the cabinet, but the results have not yet been published. Official figures showed local government debt stood at 10.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2010. (Reuters)

Vietnam GDP Rises 5.42% In 2013; Estimate 5.3% Gain. Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated as exports climbed, even as banks struggled to meet the government’s lending target. Stocks rose. Gross domestic product rose 6.04 % in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, quickening from a 5.54 % gain in the three months through September, according to data released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi today. For the full year, the economy grew 5.42 %, faster than a 5.25 % pace in 2012, and the median estimate of 5.3 % in a Bloomberg survey. (Bloomberg)

USA

Consumer Sentiment In U.S. Increases To A Five-Month High. Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose to a five-month high in December, indicating Americans will keep spending early next year. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment climbed to 82.5 from 75.1 in November. Economists in a Bloomberg survey called for 83, according to the median projection. The preliminary December reading was 82.5. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Spending Gains Lift Fourth-Quarter Growth. Consumer spending rose in November by the most in five months as discounts lured early holiday shoppers, giving the U.S. economy a boost at the end of 2013. Purchases increased 0.5 % after a 0.4 % gain in October that was larger than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. Other data showed consumer sentiment climbed in December to a five-month high. (Bloomberg)

Middle East

Saudi Arabia Slows Planned Spending Growth In Record 2014 Budget. Saudi Arabia slowed the pace of planned spending increases in its 2014 budget, even as the world’s biggest oil exporter tries to diversify the economy away from oil and provide jobs for its citizens. Targeted spending will increase 4.3 % to 855 billion riyals ($228 billion) next year, compared with a rise of almost 20 % in the 2013 budget, the Finance Ministry said in a statement on its website today. The government expects revenue of 855 billion riyals next year, it said. The kingdom posted revenue of 1.13 trillion riyals this year as the price of Brent crude held above $100 a barrel for a third year. Expenditure came in at 925 billion riyals, exceeding the 820 billion-riyal budget target announced a year ago, ministry data show. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Tilts Lower As Markets Enter Holiday Lull. The dollar tipped lower Monday in holiday-thinned trade, with some investors looking ahead a day to a report on durable goods. The euro bought $1.3693, slightly stronger than late Friday’s $1.3671, while the British pound inched up to $1.6350 from $1.6328. The ICE dollar index, tracking the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, eased to 80.419 from 80.556 late Friday in North America. The dollar traded at ¥104.06, essentially unchanged from ¥104.05 on Friday, while the Australian dollar edged up to 89.37 U.S. cents from 89.18 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Lower On Profit-Taking, Refinery Outages; Libya Caps Losses. Crude oil futures slipped on Monday in light volume as traders booked profits after three days of gains ahead of the Christmas holiday, though refinery strikes in France and internal strife in producers Libya and South Sudan checked losses. Brent crude ended 21 cents lower at $111.56 per barrel, after touching a two-week high of $111.93. U.S. crude oil futures for February delivery fell 41 cents to $98.91 a barrel, off a two-month high of $99.40 reached in the previous session. (Reuters)

Gold Slips In Thin Pre-Holiday Trade, More Downside Seen. Gold edged lower on Monday as players limited their exposure prior to year-end holidays in a market heading for its biggest annual loss in three decades and facing further downside forecasts for 2014. y 1:55 p.m. EST, the spot price of gold was down 0.4 % to $1,198.57 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down 0.5 % at $1,198.10. In other precious metals, silver was flat at $19.38 an ounce. Spot platinum edged down 0.3 % to $1,323.50 an ounce, while spot palladium fell 0.6 % to $691.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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