Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 30 Dec 2013

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Publish date: Mon, 30 Dec 2013, 09:44 AM

Malaysia

2-Way Us-Malaysia Trade Continues To Rise. The economic recovery following the devastating recession that visited the United States and curbed foreign imports may be gaining steam, but many pundits here believe that the pace is much slower than had been expected in the soon-to-end 2013. The impact of the slow economic recovery is also visible on two way US-Malaysian trade figures. According to data from the US Department of Commerce for January-October 2013, total bilateral trade between the US and Malaysia increased by 3.9% to US$33.68bil, compared with US$32.41bil in the corresponding period a year earlier. Total US imports from Malaysia continued to grow at 4.6%, reaching US$22.74bil (2012: US$21.73bil), while total US exports to Malaysia increased by 2.6% to US$9.8bil (2012: US$9.6bil) during the first 10 months of this year. The United States recorded a trade deficit of US$11.79bil (2012: US$11.05bil). (Bernama)

Asia

Japan Wages Pressured By Fastest Inflation Since 2008. Japan’s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008 last month, bringing the rate closer to policy makers’ target while threatening to erode household spending power unless employers boost wages. Prices excluding fresh food rose 1.2 % from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today in Tokyo, more than a median forecast of 1.1 % in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. A separate report showed industrial output rose 0.1 % from October, less than forecast, in a risk for projections of an acceleration in economic growth this quarter. (Bloomberg)

Japan's Top Business Lobby Agrees To Raise Base Pay Next Year. Japan's most influential business lobby has agreed to raise workers' base pay for the first time in six years as the economy gains momentum and corporate earnings improve, the Asahi newspaper reported on Sunday. Many economists say an increase in base pay is essential to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pledge to end 15 years of mild deflation and to help the Bank of Japan meet its 2 % inflation target. The Keidanren business lobby will encourage its member companies to raise base pay next year in annual spring wage negotiations, the Asahi reported, citing a draft of the business lobby's negotiations strategy. (Reuters)

USA

One Million US Jobless To Lose Financial Aid. More than a million Americans will lose their unemployment benefits after an emergency federal programme expired on Saturday. Lawmakers failed to agree on an extension of the scheme before the US Congress began its winter recess. Former President George W Bush introduced the assistance plan in 2008 at the start of the recession. Under the programme, jobless people received an average monthly stipend of $1,166 for up to 73 weeks. The White House says the benefits have kept millions of families out of poverty, but many Republicans argue that the scheme's annual $25bn price tag is too expensive. The stalemate comes two months after a budget fight in the US Congress led to the partial shutdown of the government. (BBC)

U.S. 10-Year Notes In Longest Losing Streak In Six Months On Fed. Treasury 10-year notes fell for a sixth straight week, the longest stretch since June, as signs of a quickening economic recovery boosted speculation the Federal Reserve will keep cutting debt purchases. Yields on the benchmark note jumped to the highest in more than two years as investors weighed the Fed’s decision last week to reduce $85 billion in monthly bond-buying in January while reinforcing its commitment to low interest rates. The 10-year yield climbed 11 basis points, or 0.11 %age point, to 3 % this week in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices, its first time at that level since September. The yield, the benchmark on everything from mortgages to corporate bonds, reached 3.02 %, the highest since July 26, 2011. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Draghi Sees No ‘Immediate’ Need For More Rate Cuts, Spiegel Says. European Central Bank President Mario

Draghi sees no need for further cuts to the institution’s benchmark rate amid “encouraging signs” that the euro crisis may be resolved,Der Spiegel reported, citing an interview. “At the moment we see no immediate need to act” on the main refinancing rate, the magazine cited Draghi as saying. “The crisis isn’t over, but there are many encouraging signs.” The ECB last month slashed its key rate by a quarter point to a record low of 0.25 % as the Frankfurt-based central bank warned that the euro area may face a “prolonged period” of low inflation. In the interview published today, Draghi said that there are no signs of deflation, adding that “we don’t have a situation as in Japan.” (Bloomberg)

France's 75% Tax Rate Gains Approval By Top Court. France's highest court has approved a 75% tax on high earners that is one of President Francois Hollande's signature policies. The initial proposal to tax individual incomes was ruled unconstitutional by the Constitutional Council almost exactly one year ago. But the government modified it to make employers liable for the 75% tax on salaries exceeding 1m euros. The levy will last two years, affecting income earned this year and in 2014. (BBC)

Currencies

Euro Pares Gains Vs. U.S. Dollar. The euro pared gains against the U.S. dollar on Friday after rallying earlier in the session to its highest level against the greenback since October 2011. The euro traded at $1.3742 on Friday afternoon. The ICE dollar index — which tracks the greenback against six rivals — pared intraday losses to trade at 80.369, compared to 80.488 late Thursday in North America. The British pound pared gains to trade at $1.6469 after rising as high as $1.6577 earlier in the session, according to FactSet. It traded at $1.6419 on Thursday. The dollar gained slightly against the Japanese yen, recapturing the 105-yen level. The greenback recently bought 105.15 yen compared to late Thursday’s ¥104.74. The Australian erased gains to trade at 88.70 U.S. cents from 88.89 U.S. cents late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Settles At 2-Month High On Inventory Decline. U.S. crude oil futures closed on Friday with their biggest gain in more than two months driven by the fourth straight weekly decline in oil inventories while Brent crude drew support from civil unrest in Africa that has cut off supplies. Brent oil ended the day 20 cents higher at $112.18 per barrel, the highest settlement since Dec. 3. U.S. crude added 77 cents to settle at $100.32, the highest settlement price since Oct. 18. U.S. oil futures broke above the $100-mark for the first time since Oct. 21. (Reuters)

Gold Edges Up, Set For Biggest Annual Loss In 30 Years. Gold edged up on Friday, supported by some physical buying, but remained on track for its biggest annual loss in three decades as rallies in equities and prospects of global economic recovery dented its appeal. Gold was up 0.19 % to $1,213.45 at 4:40 p.m. (2140 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled up 0.1 % at $1,214.00 an ounce. After rising the most since mid-October in the previous session, spot platinum hit a two-week high of $1,377 an ounce. Spot palladium rose to $714 an ounce, its highest since Dec. 17, and closed up 1.5 % to $707.75 an ounce, its biggest daily gain since Dec. 4. In other precious metals, silver was up 1.6 % to $20.03 an ounce, having posted its biggest daily gain for two weeks, on Thursday. (Reuters)

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