Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 9 Jan 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 09 Jan 2014, 09:44 AM

Malaysia

Exports Grew 6.7% YoY In November, on continued demand from China, Singapore, Japan and the EU for E&E and commodities. However, it is a slower growth in comparison to the previous month’s 9.6% expansion and also below market expectation for a 10.3% increase. This is largely because of seasonal factors as well as lower receipts from palm oil and crude petroleum exports. Imports on the other hand increased by 6.4% in November, following a 13.9% gain previously. On better exports growth in comparison to imports, trade surplus widened to RM9.7b from RM8.2b whilst total trade increased by 6.6% (October: 11.6%). (Please refer to Economic Veiwpoint for further comments)

USA

Companies In U.S. Added 238,000 Jobs In December, ADP Says. Companies added more workers than projected in December as U.S. employers grew more optimistic about the prospects for demand, a private report based on payrolls showed today. The 238,000 increase in employment was the biggest since November 2012 and followed a revised 229,000 gain in November that was stronger than initially estimated, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The December tally exceeded the most optimistic forecast in a Bloomberg survey in which the median projection called for a 200,000 advance. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Credit In U.S. Increases On Non-Revolving Debt. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. increased in November, reflecting a gain in non-revolving debt such as student and auto loans. The $12.3 billion advance followed a revised $17.9 billion rise the previous month, the Federal Reserve said today in Washington. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a $14.3 billion gain. (Bloomberg)

Improving US Jobs Growth Led To Federal Reserve Taper. Federal Reserve members mostly agreed about a reduction in the central bank's stimulus efforts in December, meeting minutes released Wednesday reveal. The central bank announced a $10bn a month reduction in its bond buying programme at the end of its December meeting. They decided to decrease stimulus efforts in "measured steps" to avoid surprising markets. Better than expected jobs growth was one reason cited for the pullback. Some members, however, worried that financial markets might misinterpret the move. (BBC)

Europe

Eurozone Unemployment Steady But Retail Sales Rebound. The eurozone's unemployment rate remained stable at 12.1% in November, but retail sales in the area rebounded strongly, latest figures show. Some 19.2 million people were out of work in the 17 countries using the euro, according to the EU statistics office, Eurostat. But retail trade in the currency area went up by 1.4% month-on-month, the biggest rise since November 2001, led by booming sales of non-food products. That came after a 0.4% fall in October. (BBC)

German Factory Orders Rose More Than Expected In November. German factory orders rose more than economists forecast in November, adding to signs that a recovery in Europe’s largest economy is gathering pace. Orders, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, gained 2.1 % from October, when they fell by the same amount, the Economy Ministry in Berlin said today. Economists forecast a gain of 1.5 %, according to the median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report showed retail sales in the euro area also beat expectations. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Rises On FOMC Minutes, Private-Sector Jobs Data. The U.S. dollar rose Wednesday, with investors examining minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting and private-sector jobs data that support a recovery in the labor market. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six rivals, rose to 81.069 in recent trade, from 80.864 late Tuesday. The dollar rose to ¥104.86 from ¥104.56 late Tuesday. The euro fell to $1.3575 from late Tuesday’s $1.3613, while the British pound advanced to $1.6450 from $1.6396. The Australian dollar edged down to 89.02 U.S. cents from 89.25 U.S. cents late Tuesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Loses $1 On Cushing Build, Libya Supports. U.S. oil fell by more than $1 on Wednesday, settling at its lowest point in six weeks, after government data showed a large build in crude stockpiles at the U.S. benchmark delivery point. Brent crude settled down 20 cents at $107.15. U.S crude ended $1.34 lower at $92.33 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Falls 1 Pct On Upbeat U.S. Private-Sector Job Data. Gold prices fell about 1 % for a second day on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. private-sector jobs data boosted the dollar and sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue trimming its monetary stimulus. Spot gold was down 0.9 % at $1,220.94 an ounce by 12:33 p.m. EST (1733 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver underperformed, falling 2.3 % to $19.40 an ounce. Platinum edged down 0.3 % at $1,406.60 an ounce, while palladium was down 0.3 % at $736.60 an ounce. (Reuters)

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