Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Jan 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 13 Jan 2014, 09:48 AM

Malaysia

Fitch Places M'sia On Negative Outlook, But Says M'sia Making Progress. Positive pressure on Emerging Asian sovereign ratings has ebbed as the region's vulnerabilities have moved increasingly into focus, Fitch Ratings said in a report published Thursday. Seven of nine Emerging Asian sovereigns are on a Stable Outlook. Two -Malaysia (A-) and Mongolia (B+) - are on Negative Outlook. Malaysia faces the risk of a "twin" current account and fiscal deficit without action to address weaknesses in the public finances - although Fitch acknowledges some progress has been made on this front since the Outlook was assigned in July 2013. Fitch expects economies in Emerging Asia to grow 6.5% in 2014 – still the strongest of any global region, but the slowest pace since the regional crisis year of 1998. If regional giants China and India are excluded, the agency projects growth in Emerging Asia to be 5.1%. (Reuters)

Asia

China 'Overtakes' US As World’s Largest Goods Trader. China has claimed that it is "very likely" that it overtook the US as the world's top trading nation, a title the US has held for decades. According to the latest data, China's total trade grew at an annual rate of 7.6% to $4.16tn last year. The US is yet to release it full-year figures, but its trade for the first 11 months of 2013 totalled $3.5tn. China became the world's biggest goods exporter in 2009. Its imports have also risen amid an expansion in its economy. However, there have been concerns in recent months over the accuracy of China's export data. (BBC)

North America

US Job Growth Fell Sharply In December. The US economy created only 74,000 jobs in December, with many Americans giving up looking for work, latest figures show. The number of jobs created was the lowest for three years and was well under half the number expected by analysts. The US unemployment rate fell to a five-year low of 6.7%. However, that was mostly due to a drop in the number of Americans looking for work as they became discouraged. The US had bad weather in December, which may have stalled hiring plans. The labour force participation rate - a closely watched measure - fell noticeably. The share of Americans who are either working or looking is now 62.8%, close to 35-year lows. (BBC)

Canada Jobless Rate Rises From 5-Yr Low Moving Above U.S. Canada’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from a five-year low last month on a drop in full-time work, taking it above the U.S. jobless measure for the first time since 2008. Unemployment rose to 7.2 percent from 6.9 percent while a net 45,900 workers lost their jobs in December, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 14,100 job increase and an unchanged unemployment rate according to the median forecasts. U.S. joblessness fell to 6.7 percent from 7 percent. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK Industrial Output And Construction Data Miss Forecasts. New economic data has cast doubt over the strength of the UK's economic recovery, prompting warnings against an early rise in interest rates. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that manufacturing activity and broader industrial output were both flat in November, from October. Separate figures showed construction activity fell 4%, the sharpest monthly decline since June 2012. The ONS also revised down the growth figures for manufacturing and wider production for October. On an annual basis, all three sectors showed growth, with manufacturing up 2.8% in November from a year earlier, the strongest performance since May 2011. Construction output, a stronger performer for much of 2013, was up 2.2% on the year. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Ends Week With A Loss After U.S. Jobs Data. The U.S. dollar gave up gains on Friday, pushing it to a weekly loss against major rivals, after the American economy in December saw the smallest monthly job gain in three years. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six other currencies, fell to 80.646 from 80.978 late Thursday. The euro jumped to $1.3667 from Thursday’s $1.3596, ending the week with a 0.6% gain against the greenback. The British pound was little changed at $1.6481 from late Thursday’s $1.6479. The dollar dropped to ¥104.08 from ¥104.79. The Australian dollar rose to 89.95 U.S. cents from 88.90 U.S. cents late Thursday, for a weekly gain of 0.6% against the greenback. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Rises $1 As Shorts Cover On U.K. Oilfield Glitch. Oil settled higher on Friday, reversing two days of losses, as traders bought contracts to cover short positions ahead of the weekend and reports of production problems at a major U.K. oilfield stoked supply concerns. Brent crude oil futures settled 86 cents higher at $107.25, ending the week with a slight gain. U.S. oil settled $1.06 per barrel higher at $92.72, after rising to a session high of $93.38. (Reuters)

Gold Rises 1.5 Pct After Weak Payrolls, Posts Weekly Gain. Gold rose 1.5 percent on Friday, cementing a third consecutive weekly gain, after disappointing U.S. jobs data stirred speculation the Federal Reserve will take a gradual approach to tapering its bond-buying stimulus this year. Spot gold was up 1.5 percent at $1,245.58 by 2:29 p.m. EST (1929 GMT). Silver, meanwhile, rose 2.9 percent to $20.11 an ounce. Platinum was up 1.1 percent at $1,428.10 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.8 percent to $739.10 an ounce. (Reuters)

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