Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 28 Jan 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 28 Jan 2014, 09:52 AM

Asia

Japan Reports Record Annual Trade Deficit. Japan has reported a record annual trade deficit after the weak yen pushed up the cost of energy imports. Its deficit rose to 11.5 trillion yen ($112bn) in 2013 - a 65% jump from a year ago. Japan has seen its energy imports rise in recent years after it shut all of its nuclear reactors in the aftermath of the tsunami and earthquake in 2011. But it is having to pay more for those imports after a series of aggressive policy moves weakened the yen sharply. This is the third year in a row that Japan - traditionally known for the strength of its exports - has reported an annual trade deficit. (BBC)

North America

Drop In U.S. New-Home Sales Caps The Best Year Since 2008. Sales of new U.S. homes dropped more than forecast in December as cold weather helped put a chill on an industry at the end of its best year since 2008. Purchases decreased 7% to a 414,000 annualized pace, lower than any estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. For all of 2013, demand jumped 16.4 % to 428,000. (Bloomberg)

Canada Consumer Confidence Drops As Dollar Weakens. Canadian consumer confidence dropped for the second straight reading as optimism about the economy waned during a week where the nation’s currency depreciated to the lowest in more than four years. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index fell to 57.6 from 58.7 the previous week. Consumers grew more pessimistic about their personal finances, the national economy and job security, survey data show. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated last week that a pickup in exports and business investment has taken longer than expected to appear. Poloz also said the risk of inflation remaining below the midpoint of the central bank’s 1 % to 3 % target band has increased. Canada’s inflation rate rose 1.2 % in December from a year earlier, slower than the 1.3 % that economists had forecast, Statistics Canada reported Jan. 24. (Bloomberg)

Europe

French Unemployment At Record High. French unemployment has hit a record high with more than 3.3 million people now registered as out of work. In December, 10,200 more people were listed as jobless, breaking President Francois Hollande's promise joblessness would fall by the year end. The French unemployment rate is now 11.1%. It went up by 5.7% in 2013, and rose 0.3% in December. The French Labour Ministry said the rate of unemployment appeared to be slowing, with 177,800 people joining the jobless register in 2013 compared to 283,800 in 2012. (BBC)

German Business Confidence Rises As Growth Pickup Seen. German business confidence rose to the highest level in more than two years and beat economists’ forecasts in a signal that the expansion in Europe’s largest economy may be accelerating. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, climbed to 110.6 in January from 109.5 in December. Economists predicted an increase to 110, according to the median of 45 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. It was the third consecutive increase and the strongest reading since July 2011. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Turkey's Central Bank Calls Emergency Meeting Over Lira Plunge. The Turkish central bank has called an emergency meeting of its monetary policy committee for Tuesday, following a sharp fall in the lira against the euro and US dollar. The bank said it would "discuss recent developments and take the necessary policy measures for price stability" at the meeting. It will set out its plans in a statement at 22:00 GMT on Tuesday. The move comes amid market pressure for the bank to raise interest rates. After the announcement, the lira firmed to 2.3420 against the dollar, compared with a record low of 2.39 earlier in the day. But it fell 0.5% against the euro to 3.17740. (BBC)

Dollar Recovers From Nearly 2-Month Low Vs. Yen. The U.S. dollar recovered from a nearly two-month low against the Japanese yen Monday, as the greenback remained vulnerable to major rivals amid heightened worries about risk in emerging markets. The dollar rose to ¥102.58 from ¥102.24 late Friday, which had marked the lowest level since Dec. 5. The euro was little changed at $1.3674 versus $1.3676 late Friday. The British pound rose to $1.6580 from $1.6502. The dollar bought 7.9919 Argentine pesos versus 8.0130 pesos on Friday, according to FactSet. The greenback on Monday eased to 2.2831 Turkish lira from 2.3376 lira on Friday, when the dollar recorded its 10th consecutive win against the currency. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rose to 87.38 U.S. cents from Friday’s 87.03 U.S. cents. The ICE dollar index inched up to 80.498 from 80.457 late Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Loses $1 As Emerging Markets Struggle, U.S. Fed Weighs. Brent crude oil futures shed more than $1 a barrel on Monday, and U.S. crude fell almost as much, as investors kept dumping risky assets on worries about weaker growth in emerging markets. Brent crude shed $1.19 to settle at $106.69 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 92 cents to settle at $95.72. (Reuters)

Gold Falls 1 Pct On Fed Worries; Equities Steady. Gold fell around 1% on Monday, retreating from a two-month high earlier in the session, as a steadier U.S. equities market and jitters ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting this week triggered profit taking. Spot gold was down 1.2 % at $1,253.69 an ounce by 3:35 p.m. EST (2035 GMT), having hit a two month high of $1,278.01. Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.4% to $19.58 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.3 % to $1,405.25 an ounce, while palladium dropped 1.9 % to $718.10 an ounce. (Reuters)

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