Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 6 Feb 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 06 Feb 2014, 09:41 AM

Asia

Indonesia’s Growth Beats Estimates As Rebound Seen Faltering. Indonesia’s economic growth unexpectedly quickened last quarter after an export rebound, an acceleration that may be short-lived as higher interest rates weigh on domestic consumption and investment. Gross domestic product rose 5.72 % in the three months ended Dec. 31 from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That beat all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists, where the median was 5.34 %. The economy grew 5.78 % in 2013. (Bloomberg)

Japan Real Wages Fall To Global Recession Low In Abe Risk. Japan’s base wages adjusted for inflation last year matched a 16-year low in 2009 when the world was gripped by recession, posing a risk to consumer spending as the nation girds for a higher consumption tax. Pay excluding bonuses and overtime payments dropped to 98.9 in 2013 on a labor ministry index released today that takes price changes into account, equaling the level four years earlier. The gauge is based at 100 in 2010 in data back to 1990. (Bloomberg)

USA

Companies In U.S. Added Fewer Workers Than Forecast In January. Companies added fewer workers than projected in January as colder-than-normal weather limited progress in the U.S. job market, a private report based on payrolls showed today. The 175,000 increase was the smallest in five months and followed a revised 227,000 rise in December that was weaker than initially reported, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The median projection of 40 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 185,000. (Bloomberg)

Expanding Services Show Limit To Weather Impact In U.S: Economy. Service industries expanded more than forecast in January as the biggest part of the U.S. economy overcame the effects of snow and freezing temperatures to boost hiring by the most in more than three years. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index increased to 54 from 53 in December, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Readings greater than 50 signal expansion. The group’s employment gauge was the strongest since November 2010, even as a separate report showed company payrolls grew less than projected. (Bloomberg)

Europe

U.K. Services Growth Unexpectedly Slows On Wet Weather. U.K. services grew at the slowest pace in seven months in January as new business cooled and wet weather soaked the country. An index based on a survey of purchasing managers declined to 58.3 from 58.8 in December, Markit Economics said in a report today in London. The median of 32 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for an increase to 59. Services in the euro area grew at a slower pace than initially estimated and retail sales slid, separate reports showed, underlining the fragility of the region’s recovery. (Bloomberg)

Eurozone Retail Sales Fall Sharply In December. Retail sales in the eurozone fell sharply over the Christmas period, with their biggest monthly fall in two-and-a-half years. December's sales fell by 1% compared to the same time a year ago, and by 1.6% compared to November. Both figures were much worse than analysts expected. The drop in consumer demand followed a surprise fall in eurozone inflation to 0.7% in January. The figure prompted concerns about deflation in the 17-nation bloc. According to the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat, the largest annual decrease in sales came in Germany, where trade fell by 2.4% in December compared to the same month in 2012. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Falls Against Yen, Euro; ECB In Focus. The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday as investors digested data on U.S. private-sector jobs and service-sector expansion in an effort to get a better sense of U.S. growth in 2014. The dollar fell to ¥101.45 from ¥101.67 late Tuesday, but was off its intraday low. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the currency’s strength, fell to 81.054 from 81.120 late Tuesday. The euro rose to $1.3536 from $1.3517 late Tuesday. The British pound moved down to $1.6309 from $1.6326. The Australian dollar fell to 89.11 U.S. cents from 89.39 U.S.cents in the prior session. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Rises On Spread Trade, Cold Supports U.S. Oil. Brent crude oil futures rose on Wednesday as traders took profit on an over-extended spread trade with U.S. oil, while the American benchmark took some support from record heating oil demand due to continued freezing weather. Brent crude rose 47 cents to $106.25 per barrel after three straight sessions of losses. U.S. crude rose 19 cents to $97.38. (Reuters)

Gold Rises, Off Highs, As Investors Mull Mixed U.S. Data. Gold rose on Wednesday but failed to hold an earlier rally as a mixed bag of U.S. economic indicators left investors uncertain over the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy. Spot gold was up 0.3 % to $1,258.46 an ounce by 3:10 p.m. EST (2010 GMT), having earlier risen as much as 1.5% to $1,273.26 after the U.S. ADP data. Silver, which tends to be more volatile than gold, rose 2.3 % to $19.89 an ounce. Platinum climbed 0.3% to $1,376 an ounce and palladium gained 1.1% to $706.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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