Malaysia

Exports For The Month Of December Expanded By 14.4%, far above the previous month’s 6.7% and beating consensus estimate of 10.0% but closer to our 12.3%. For the whole of 2013, exports grew by 2.4%, largely on strong demand from Asia and continued recovery in the US as well as recovery in parts of the EU as deliveries for E&E and mining commodities increased. Imports also ended the year on a strong note, rising by 14.8% following a 6.4% gain previously. This also beats market estimates of 9.2% and our own 7.7%. For the whole year, imports gained 7.0%. On better imports growth in comparison to exports, December’s trade surplus narrowed slightly to RM9.5b from RM9.7b, whilst total trade increased by 14.6% YoY. Trade balance for the whole of 2013 narrowed to RM70.6b from RM96.0b whilst total trade grew 4.6%. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

Asia

China Surplus Hits US$188.6bil. China posted a US$188.6bil current account surplus in 2013 and a US$242.7bil surplus in its capital and financial account, preliminary data from the country’s foreign exchange regulator showed. In the fourth quarter of 2013, China had a US$49.8bil surplus on the current account and a US$81bil surplus on its capital and financial account, said the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. China’s current account surplus last year was equivalent to 2% of its gross domestic product, calculations showed. (Reuters)

India Predicts Climb From Decade-Low GDP Growth Amid Risks. India forecast a faster acceleration in economic growth than analysts had estimated, a prediction facing risks from interest-rate increases to quell inflation and expenditure curbs by the government. Gross domestic product will rise 4.9 % in the 12 months through March 31, compared with the decade-low 4.5 % in the previous fiscal year, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi yesterday. The median of 24 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey had been 4.7 %. The projection may be revised upward later and the final growth rate is unlikely to be less than 5 %, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said in a statement e-mailed today. (Bloomberg)

USA

U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast; Jobless Rate Falls. Payrolls rose less than projected in January and the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in more than five years, clouding the outlook for the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve. The 113,000 gain in hiring fell short of the 180,000 advance that was the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed a 75,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department data showed today in Washington. Unemployment declined to 6.6 %, the least since October 2008, from 6.7 % in December. (Bloomberg)

Europe

German 2013 Surplus Record. Germany’s trade surplus soared to a new record high in 2013, although export momentum tailed off at the end of the year, official data showed. Europe’s biggest economy notched up a trade surplus of 198.9 billion euros (US$270bil) in 2013, the highest since foreign trade data have been compiled. Total exports slipped by 0.2% over the year as a whole, while overall imports fell by 1.2%. In 2012, the surplus had stood at 189.8 billion euros. (AFP)

UK Trade Deficit Narrows But Manufacturing Weakens. The UK's trade deficit narrowed in December to its smallest since July 2012, but manufacturing growth was weaker than expected, Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show. An increase in oil, chemical and aircraft exports helped the trade deficit in goods to fall by more than £2bn to £7.72bn, the ONS said. Fewer imports of aircraft and ships also boosted the figures, it said. Manufacturing output rose by 0.3% in December, less than the 0.6% predicted. The wider measure of industrial output rose by 0.4% in the month. (BBC)

ECB's Bond-Buying Plan Referred To Europe's Top Court. An emergency measure that was credited with stabilising the euro has been referred to Europe's top court. On Friday, Germany's constitutional court said that the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond-buying scheme could be "incompatible" with EU law. The European Court of Justice will now decide the legality of the so-called debt "backstop", introduced in 2012. Although the ECB has not used the emergency power, its existence calmed turmoil in European financial markets. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Slips After Rocky Reaction To Downbeat U.S. Jobs Data. The dollar drifted lower after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report on Friday that muddies the waters but is seen as unlikely to dissuade the Federal Reserve from diverting from its path of steadily removing monetary stimulus from the U.S. economy. The euro finished near the top of its range for the day, up 0.331 % to $1.36350, after having dropped back from its session high $1.36490 on the EBS trading platform. The euro traded up 0.50 % to 139.45 yen. The dollar also advanced against the yen, after regaining ground from the initial sell-off after the jobs data. The greenback rose 0.19 % to 102.28 yen. Sterling extended its gains against the greenback as the trading session wore on, climbing 0.56 % to $1.6412 , its best level of the week. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Hits One Month Highs On U.S. Cold, Tight Supply. Oil rose by more than $2 to one-month highs on Friday, fuelled by a sharp rally in gasoline and heating oil as supplies tightened and refiners started to shut down plants for maintenance. Brent crude oil futures settled $2.38 higher at $109.57, the highest point since Jan. 2. U.S. crude settled up $2.04 to $99.88 a barrel, its highest point since Dec. 27. (Reuters)

Gold Rises As Weak U.S. Job Data Rekindles Fed Stimulus Hope. Gold rose on Friday after data showed U.S. job creation slowed sharply over the past two months, fueling speculation that slowing economic momentum will force the Federal Reserve to keep its current stimulus. Spot gold rose as much as 1.2 % to $1,271.70 an ounce, near its two-month high, after the job data. Silver, tracking gold, was up nearly 5 % this week - its biggest weekly gain since mid-August. It was last up 0.5 % on the day at $20 an ounce. Platinum was trading up 0.5 % at $1,378.50 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.1 % to $708.42 an ounce. (Reuters)