Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 11 Feb 2014

kiasutrader
Publish date: Tue, 11 Feb 2014, 09:41 AM

Malaysia

Industrial Production In December Gained 4.8% YoY, following a revised 3.8% (from 4.4%) increase previously, largely as a result of continued expansion from the manufacturing sector. On a monthly comparison, production increased by 0.4% MoM but for a more accurate gauge, the 3-month moving average (3mma), which helps smoothen out seasonal factors, saw production gaining 3.4% YoY (November: 2.1%). For the whole of 2013, production posted an expansion of 2.7%, compared to 4.4% in the previous year. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

Construction Sector Q4 Growth At 11.3% On-Year. The value of construction work done in the fourth quarter 2013 recorded an increase of 8.1% quarter-on-quarter to RM24.7bil, with the year-on-year %age at 11.3%. This means the sector has continued to register a positive growth after the negative growth in the second quarter of 2011. The highest percentage share in construction during the quarter was by the civil engineering sub-sector, which recorded 36.5%. This was followed by non-residential buildings (30.8%), residential buildings (27.6%) and special trades (5.1%). The private sector continued to dominate as project owner with a share of 69.3% in the fourth quarter 2013. Nevertheless, the share of public sector has increased to 30.7% from 29.7% compared to the previous quarter. (The Star)

Asia

Japan Posts Smallest Surplus In 2013. Japan posted its smallest current account surplus on record last year, throwing the spotlight back on its ability to service its huge debt and exposing a danger point in an economy starting to find its feet after years of underperformance. The ministry of finance data yesterday also showed the current account balance for December slid to the largest deficit on record as exporters have failed to reap the benefits of a weak currency. For 2013, Japan’s current account recorded a 3.3 trillion yen surplus. This was the smallest surplus since 1985. Government debt rose to a record 1,017 trillion yen last year. (Reuters)

North America

Canada Consumer Sentiment Falls To 8-Month Low On Outlook. Consumer sentiment in Canada fell to the lowest since May on speculation the nation’s economic outlook is worsening. The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index declined to 56.0 in the week ending Feb. 7 from a previous reading of 56.6, the fourth straight drop. Deteriorating optimism was seen in every province except Quebec and across all age groups except the youngest, 18 to 29, and those older than 60. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK: Business Optimism Highest For 22 Years, Says BDO Survey. Business optimism in the UK is at its highest level in 22 years, a survey by business consultants BDO has found. The monthly report incorporates results of surveys from the CBI, the Bank of England's Agents and data from business information providers, Markit. BDO said its optimism index, which predicts performance two quarters ahead, pointed to further improvements in the next six months. It is the latest in a string of reports pointing to a strengthening recovery. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Down Vs. Yen As Investors Turn To Yellen. The dollar weakened slightly against the yen as investors looked ahead to testimony from the Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen for clues on the central bank’s next move. The edged down to ¥102.21 from ¥102.27 late Friday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the U.S. unit’s strength against six other currencies, declined to 80.630 from 80.726 late Friday. The British pound fell to $1.6408 from $1.6418 late Friday. The euro rose to $1.3645 from $1.3637 late Friday. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar moved lower to 89.46 U.S. cents from 89.62 U.S. cents. The U.S. dollar rose to 1.1055 Canadian dollars from 1.1043 Canadian dollars late Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Oil Down $1, Heating Oil, Increased Supply Weighs. Brent oil fell by nearly $1 per barrel on Monday, pressured by sinking heating oil prices as the market looked toward the end of a long and frigid winter and as supplies increased from Libya and the North Sea. March Brent crude settled 94 cents lower at $108.63, after reaching a high of $109.75, its loftiest since Jan. 2. The March contract expires at the end of trading on Thursday. Brent oil for April settled 89 cents lower at $107.96. U.S. crude ended 18 cents higher at $100.06, maintaining above $100 for the first time this year. (Reuters)

Gold Rises Ahead Of Testimony From Fed Chief Yellen. Gold rose on Monday as worries about weak U.S. labor market data had some investors betting that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may signal a pause in the central bank's efforts to wind down its bond-buying stimulus. Spot gold rose 0.6 % to $1,274.24 an ounce by 2:56 p.m. EST (1956 GMT), extending last week's 1.9 % rise, its largest weekly increase since the week of Jan. 3. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.3% to $20.04 an ounce. Platinum edged up 0.1 % at $1,380.50 an ounce, while palladium rose 1 % to $714.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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