Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 18 Feb 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 18 Feb 2014, 09:50 AM

Asia

Japanese Quarterly GDP Growth Disappoints. Japan’s economic recovery failed to regain momentum as expected in the last three months of 2013, government data showed on Monday, with spending by households and businesses offset by deteriorating terms of trade. Gross domestic product increased by 0.3 % in the October-December quarter, or 1.0 % in annualised terms, according to a preliminary estimate by the Cabinet Office. That matched the pace of growth in the period between July and September but fell well short of forecasts by analysts, who had been looking for growth of around 0.7 %. (Financial Times)

India Budget Seeks 7-Year Low Deficit Amid Sops For Votes. India’s government pledged to reduce the fiscal gap to the lowest in seven years in an interim budget before elections due by May, while boosting defense spending and cutting taxes on cars, mobile phones and television sets. The budget deficit will narrow to 4.1 % of gross domestic product by March 31, 2015 from an estimated 4.6 % in the current fiscal year, which is lower than an earlier target of 4.8 %, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram told lawmakers today in New Delhi. The budget would provide funds for several months until a new parliament is elected. (Bloomberg)

Thai Q4 GDP Slumps, Unrest Clouds Outlook. Thailand's economic growth slowed significantly in the final quarter of 2013, and the state planning agency has cut its forecast for 2014 because the continuing political unrest could prevent the formation of a fully functioning government for months. South-East Asia's second-biggest economy after Indonesia grew a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October-December from the previous three months. That matched a forecast from economists in a Reuters poll but was well down on July-September's 1.3% pace. The economy also grew 0.6% from the final quarter of 2012, compared with the poll forecast of 0.4% and the previous quarter's 2.7%. For full-year 2013, the agency said growth was 2.9%, far below the 6.5% in 2012 when Thailand was rebounding from devastating floods the preceding year. (Reuters)

USA

White House: Stimulus Bill Was Good For Economy. The costly $787 billion spending bill that President Barack Obama signed into law soon after taking office boosted the economy and helped avoid another Great Depression, the White House said in a status report on Monday's fifth anniversary of the law's enactment. Republican leaders in Congress took note of the anniversary, too, but argued that the bill spent too much for too little in return. White House economic adviser Jason Furman said the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act made other targeted investments that will pay dividends for years to come. By itself, the stimulus bill saved or created an average of 1.6 million jobs a year for four years through the end of 2012, Furman said in a White House blog post. (AP)

Europe

German Home Prices Rose Most In Decade On Cheap Finance. German home prices rose by the most in at least 10 years in 2013 as low interest rates made it cheaper to finance purchases and prompted investors to switch from bond markets to real estate. The gains slowed in the fourth quarter. Prices for houses, apartments and residential buildings climbed 4 % in 2013 from a year earlier, according to an index published today by the VDP Association of German Pfandbrief Banks. That’s the biggest gain since at least 2003, when VDP began compiling data. Prices rose 3.4 % in the last three months of the year, the smallest increase in five quarters. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Falters Vs. Yen As Risk Appetite Wanes. The dollar lost ground against the Japanese yen and other major currencies on Monday, as recent weakness in Japan equities hurt investors’ risk appetite and disappointing U.S. data triggered concerns for a slowing economic recovery. Against the yen, the dollar dropped to ¥101.56 from ¥101.81 late Friday, even as the Nikkei Average managed to end with a 0.6% gain Monday. The ICE dollar index , which tracks the U.S. unit against six other currencies, eased to 80.03 from 80.13 late Friday. The British pound advanced to $1.6790 from $1.6748 late Friday, and the euro moved higher to $1.3710 from $1.3698. The Australian dollar rose to 90.52 U.S. cents from 90.36 U.S. cents on Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Rises On Tight Supply; Heating Oil Gains. Brent oil futures rose in late session trading on Friday, boosted by demand for heating oil ahead of more winter cold and snow in the U.S. Northeast as well as supply disruptions in producers Libya and Angola. U.S. crude settled 5 cents lower at $100.30 a barrel, though it ended higher on the week for the fifth week in a row. Brent crude settled 56 cents higher at $109.08 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold At 3-1/2 Month High On Weak Dollar, U.S. Growth Concerns. Gold hit a 3-1/2 month high on Monday as fears over U.S. economic growth following a series of disappointing data sent the dollar to a six-week low and lifted demand for the metal. Spot gold touched its highest since Oct. 31 at $1,329.55 an ounce earlier in the session and was trading up 0.7% at $1,327.91 by 1700 GMT. The metal posted its biggest weekly gain since August last week, climbing 4 %. Silver climbed to its highest since November at $21.96 an ounce, before trading up 1.6 % at $21.80. The metal has gained 12 % this year. Platinum fell 0.2 % to $1,426.50 an ounce, while palladium gained 0.7 % to $739.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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