Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 21 Feb 2014

kiasutrader
Publish date: Fri, 21 Feb 2014, 09:28 AM

Asia

Japan Monthly Trade Gap More Than Doubles To New Record. Japan's monthly trade deficit has more than doubled to a new record after a weakened currency drove up the cost of fuel imports while exports slowed. Japan's trade gap rose by 71% to 2.79tn yen ($27.3bn) in January from a deficit of 1.3tn yen in December. This comes after imports rose by 25%, outweighing a 9.5% rise in exports. Japan has posted large trade deficits for 19 straight months, raising concerns the government's stimulus policy may be having a counter effect. (BBC)

China Manufacturing Index Hits Seven-Month Low. A key index of Chinese manufacturing contracted further in February to hit its lowest level in seven months, HSBC said Thursday, in a sign of diminishing strength in the world's second-largest economy. The British banking giant's preliminary reading for its purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China, which tracks manufacturing activity in factories and workshops, fell to 48.3 this month. That marked a further tumble from the final reading of 49.5 in January, when the figure showed contraction for the first time in six months. The index is a closely-watched gauge of the health of the Asian economic powerhouse. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while anything below signals contraction. (AFP)

PBOC Drains Cash As Overnight Rate Slides To Lowest In 10 Months. China’s central bank drained cash from the financial system for the second time this week as the rate banks charge one another for overnight loans sank to the lowest level in 10 months. The People’s Bank of China said it sold 60 billion yuan ($9.9 billion) of 14-day repurchase contracts at 3.8%, after auctioning 48 billion yuan of the agreements at the same rate on Feb. 18. Repos were conducted this week for the first time since June after data indicated aggregate financing, the broadest measure of credit, was a record 2.58 trillion yuan in January. (Bloomberg)

Singapore Revises Growth For Fourth Quarter Upwards. Singapore's economy grew at a much faster pace than earlier thought in the final quarter of 2013, revised figures showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the quarter grew 5.5% from the year ago period, better than the 4.4% advanced estimate released in January and beating a Reuters forecast for a 5.3% expansion. Quarter on quarter, the economy grew an annualized 6.1%, compared with the advanced estimate of a 2.7% contraction, and against a Reuters poll expecting a 0.8% rise. (CNBC)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Fell Last Week As Firings Abated. Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign employers are holding the line on firings even as cold weather slowed industries from manufacturing to housing. Jobless claims declined by 3,000 to 336,000 in the week ended Feb. 15, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a decrease to 335,000. No states were estimated and there was nothing unusual in the data, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released. (Bloomberg)

Little Inflation Allows Fed to Focus on Growth. The cost of living in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in January, giving the Federal Reserve scope to maintain stimulus to allow the world’s largest economy to strengthen further. The consumerprice index increased 0.1% after a 0.2% gain in December, according to Labor Department data today in Washington. Clothing stores and auto dealers were among retailers cutting prices last month in a bid to lure shoppers grappling with the snowstorms that blanketed much of the U.S. (Bloomberg)

Leading Indicators Index In U.S. Increased 0.3% In January. The index of U.S. leading indicators climbed in January, an indication the economy will bounce back after winter storms damped economic growth at the beginning of 2014. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.3% after no change in the prior month, the New York-based group said today. The advance matched the median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.(Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Business Growth Slowed In February, PMI Study Suggests. Business growth in the eurozone eased this month but the bloc's economy continued to expand at a "robust pace", a closely watched survey suggests. The latest Markit eurozone composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) dipped to 52.7 from 52.9 in January. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. Within the bloc, Germany and France continued to see contrasting fortunes. German companies saw strong growth, but activity among French firms declined for the fourth month in a row. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Inches Up As Investors Shrug Off Mixed Data. The U.S. dollar gained against many of its rivals Thursday, despite mixed data that raised questions about economic growth, as investors took on more risk and ditched safer assets. After the data, the ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six other currencies, was at 80.280, up from 80.191 late Wednesday. The U.S. dollar swung slightly higher Thursday. It last traded at ¥102.33, from ¥102.32 late Wednesday. The dollar index was also supported by a modestly weaker euro, which fell to $1.3721 from $1.3733 late Wednesday after disappointing euro-zone PMI data. The British pound moved a little lower to $1.6656, compared to $1.6681 late Wednesday. The Australian dollar fell to as low as 89.35 U.S. cents from 90.04 U.S. cents late Wednesday, though it last traded up at 90.18 cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Crude Falls On Stockpiles Data, China. U.S. crude oil inched lower on Thursday after U.S. heating oil stockpiles fell less than expected and Chinese economic data disappointed. Brent settled 17 cents lower at $110.30 a barrel (1749 GMT) after settling at its highest price of 2014 on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil for March delivery, which expired Thursday, settled 39 cents lower at $102.92. U.S. crude for April delivery, which will become the front month contract on Friday, settled 9 cents lower at $102.75. (Reuters)

Gold Rises Nearly 1 Pct On Weak Manufacturing Data. Gold rose on Thursday due to disappointing U.S. and Chinese manufacturing data, but overall improvement in global economic conditions and continued stimulus tapering by the Federal Reserve could dent safe haven demand, traders said. Spot gold was up 0.9% at $1,323.31 an ounce by 3:23 p.m. EST (2023 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver rose 1.5% to $21.85 an ounce. Platinum eased 0.2% to $1,410.60 an ounce, while palladium was up 0.3% at $732.60 an ounce. (Reuters)

 

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