Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 24 Feb 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 24 Feb 2014, 09:47 AM

Global

G20 Meeting Targets An Additional 2% Economic Growth. Financial leaders from the 20 biggest economies have set a goal of generating $2 trillion in extra output over the next five years. During that period they aim to boost the gross domestic product of G20 countries by 2% above the levels currently expected. It is hoped the move will create tens of million of new jobs. The goal was announced at the Group of 20 weekend meeting in Sydney. The main G20 meeting is in Brisbane in November. (BBC)

Asia

China To Aim For 7-8% Economic Growth. China is aiming for economic growth of between 7% and 8%, a level that is good for both the country and the world, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan told a G20 meeting in Sydney this weekend. Zhou, in remarks published online on Sunday by the central bank, did not give a time frame for that level, but said the country was working on financial reforms and would keep growth stable. The government has released no forecast for this year. Growth in 2013 stood at 7.7 %. He said China was vigilant about financial risks and was keeping a close eye on its "shadow banks", a sector that he said was growing quickly though its overall size is not big. (Reuters)

Vietnam Says Bad Debt At 9%, Below Moody's Estimate. Bad debt in Vietnam is expected to account for about 9 % of total loans, after careful calculations, below the 15 % ratio estimated by Moody's Investors Service, the central bank said in a statement. Vietnam has one of Asia's highest ratios of non-performing loans, which has squeezed the economy and led to a tightening of credit needed to boost flagging consumer spending and keep businesses afloat. Banks in Vietnam managed to cut bad debt to 3.63 % of loans at the end of 2013, from 4.73 % last October, the State Bank of Vietnam said in the statement issued late on Friday after a Moody's report on Feb. 18. The central bank revised down the 3.79 % bad debt ratio estimated by the central bank last month. (Reuters)

Europe

Draghi Says ECB Ready To Act If Inflation Outlook Deteriorates. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policy makers are ready to add to stimulus if the outlook for prices deteriorates, though there are currently no signs of deflation in the euro area. “We don’t have any evidence of people postponing their expenditure plans with a view to buying the same thing at lower prices, in other words we don’t see what is defined to be deflation,” Draghi said after a Group of 20 meeting in Sydney today. “We are aware of the risks. The Governing Council is willing and ready to take any action in case these risks were to gain strength.” He also spoke at length about signs of economic recovery in the euro zone, saying there are initial indications that confidence is returning and domestic demand is picking up. (Bloomberg)

Moody's Upgrades Spain's Rating One Notch With Positive Outlook. Moody's Investors Service raised Spain's sovereign debt rating and outlook on Friday, citing progress in economic rebalancing, structural reforms and improved market access after around five years of a deep economic downturn. The ratings agency increased the sovereign one notch to Baa2 with a positive outlook. The move comes as Spain emerges from one of its deepest recessions in decades, struggles with record high unemployment - with one of four of the workforce out of a job - and fights to narrow one of the euro zone's widest public sector deficits. (Reuters)

UK Retail Sales Fall In January But Outlook Remains Positive. Retail sales in the UK fell in January after the pre-Christmas surge in spending, figures have shown, but sales remained stronger than a year earlier. Sales volumes fell by 1.5% last month, but this followed a strong increase in December when sales jumped by 2.5%. However, sales in January remained 4.3% higher than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics figures showed. Analysts said this showed the underlying picture remained positive for the sector. (BBC)

Ukraine Credit Rating Cut By S&P As Violence Continues. One of the world's leading credit rating agencies has downgraded Ukraine in light of political uncertainty and violent clashes in the capital Kiev. Standard & Poor's said the downgrade reflected "our view that the political situation has deteriorated substantially". It downgraded the economy by one notch, from CCC+ to CCC. Ukrainians are protesting about the government's plans to forge closer ties with Russia rather than with Europe. (BBC)

Currencies

S. Korea, Australia Sign US$4.5bil Currency Swap Deal. South Korea and Australia have signed a currency swap deal worth US$4.5bil, Seoul’s central bank said, in a move to boost trades and help curb currency swings. The deal – signed by the countries’ central bank governors – allows the two nations to purchase and repurchase each other’s currency of up to five trillion won, the Central Bank of Korea said in a statement. The three-year deal, which is renewable upon agreement, will allow greater flexibility for businesses to use local currencies for trade that have been commonly settled in US dollars, the statement said. (AFP)

Dollar Posts Weekly Gains Against Loonie, Yen. The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen and Canadian dollar Friday as investors considered another piece of U.S. housing data that missed expectations. The greenback rose to 1.1131 Canadian dollars from 1.1117 Canadian dollars late Thursday, for a weekly gain of 1.5%. The U.S. dollar rose to ¥102.62 from ¥102.33 late Thursday, netting a weekly increase of 0.7%. The British pound fell to $1.6629 from $1.6656 late Thursday. The euro rose to $1.3737 from $1.3721, while the Australian dollar pulled back to 89.68 U.S. cents from 90.18 cents in the prior session. (Market Watch)

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