Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 28 Feb 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 28 Feb 2014, 09:45 AM

Asia Pacific

Australia Business Investment Skids, Outlook Darkens. Australian business investment unexpectedly sank by the most in over four years last quarter and spending plans for 2014/15 heralded a deeper slowdown ahead, a blow to the economic outlook that sent the local dollar sharply lower. Thursday's survey from the Australian Bureau of Statistics' showed firms planned to spend A$125 billion in the year to June 2015, less than the A$135 billion many analysts had hoped for. Thursday's report also contained bad news about recent growth with capital expenditure falling 5.2 percent in the last quarter of 2013, well under forecasts of a flat outcome. (Reuters)

Americas

Yellen Says Fed To Keep Taper As It Parses Weather-Weakened Data. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is likely to keep trimming asset purchases, even as policy makers monitor data to determine if recent weakness in the economy is temporary. “Unseasonably cold weather has played some role,” she said in response to a question today from the Senate Banking Committee. “What we need to do, and will be doing in the weeks ahead, is to try to get a firmer handle on exactly how much of that set of soft data can be explained by weather and what portion, if any, is due to softer outlook.” (Bloomberg)

Jobless Claims In U.S. Climbed Last Week To One-Month High. More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the labor market is improving in fits and starts. Jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 348,000 in the week ended Feb. 22, exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey and the highest level in a month, from 334,000 in the prior period, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. A Labor Department spokesman said no states were estimated and there was nothing unusual in the data. (Bloomberg)

Goods Orders Signal U.S. Factories Springing Back. Orders for U.S. durable goods excluding the volatile transportation category unexpectedly climbed in January by the most in eight months, a sign manufacturing is emerging from a slump induced by harsh weather. The 1.1 percent increase was the biggest gain since May and followed a 1.9 percent drop in December that was larger than previously estimated, according to Commerce Department data issued today in Washington. Other reports showed more Americans than expected filed claims for jobless benefits last week, and consumer confidence improved to a two-month high. (Bloomberg)

Brazil's Economy Grows At Twice The Rate Expected. Brazil's economy unexpectedly notched up a growth rate of 0.7% in the last quarter of last year. Finance Minister Guido Mantega told reporters: "It was a surprise even for the government." The economy shrank in the third quarter of 2013. Many economists had expected it to shrink again and fall into recession. Over the whole year it has grown by 2.3%, helped by strong consumer spending and investment. (BBC)

Europe

Ukraine Pledging ‘Wide-Ranging Reforms’ in Loan Request to IMF. Ukraine’s new leadership is pledging “wideranging reforms” in exchange for financial assistance, an International Monetary Fund spokesman said, citing the country’s formal request for aid today. “The situation is urgent and we are seized of that urgency,” Gerry Rice, director of the IMF’s communications department, said in Washington. “We stand ready to help.” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, in a statement earlier today, said the fund will send a “fact-finding” team to Kiev in coming days for preliminary talks with government officials. “This will enable the IMF to make its usual technical, independent assessment of the economic situation in Ukraine and, at the same time, begin to discuss with the authorities the policy reforms that could form the basis of a fund-supported program,” she said. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Ruble Near 5-Year Low Vs. Dollar On Ukraine Tensions. The U.S. dollar gave up gains against the Russian ruble late Thursday but still hovered near its highest level in nearly five years, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate. The dollar fell to 36.024 ruble in late trade from 36.0545 ruble late Wednesday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other currencies, fell to 80.291 from 80.461 late Wednesday. The dollar fell to ¥102.17 from ¥102.44 late Wednesday. The euro shrugged off earlier losses to rise to $1.3708 from Wednesday’s level of $1.3680, while the British pound gained to $1.6686 from $1.6658. The Australian dollar edged up to 89.66 U.S. cents from 89.58 U.S. cents late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Oil Weakens On Ukraine Worries. Brent oil futures fell on Thursday, pressured by civil unrest in Ukraine that curbed overall risk appetite and fueled fears that it would slow growth in Europe and lessen oil demand. Brent crude ended the day 56 cents lower at $108.96 a barrel, after falling below the 100-day moving average of $108.77 in intraday trade for the first time in two weeks. U.S. oil settled 19 cents lower to $102.40 a barrel, after ending 76 cents higher the previous session. (Reuters)

Gold Flat After Yellen Comments. Gold prices ended flat on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said cold winter weather seems to be the culprit for slower U.S. economic activities, suggesting the central bank was poised to press forward in trimming its stimulus. Spot gold edged down 1 cent to $1,330.69 an ounce by 3:44 p.m. EST (2044 GMT), well off a high of $1,345.35 hit earlier in the session. Platinum rose 1.5 percent to $1,447.50 an ounce, while palladium gained 1.4 percent to $739 an ounce. Silver was up 0.3 percent at $21.28 an ounce, recovering from Wednesday's nearly 3 percent drop. (Reuters)

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