Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 3 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 03 Mar 2014, 09:48 AM

Asia

Japanese On Spending Spree Ahead Of Sales Tax Rise. Japanese consumers are on a spending spree ahead of a sales tax hike, and companies are increasing production to meet increased demand. The country's retail sales grew 4.4% in January compared to a year ago, marking a sixth straight month of gains. Industrial production rose by 4% in January, marking the second straight monthly jump in factory activity. Most of the spending and production increase is due to a rush in purchases ahead of higher sales tax in April. The government will raise it to 8% from the current 5% to pay for rising welfare costs. (BBC)

China Factory Slowdown Underscores Li’s Growth Challenges. China’s manufacturing slowdown last month adds to challenges for growth in the world’s second-biggest economy as Premier Li Keqiang maps out the government’s strategy to the nation’s legislature this week. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (CPMINDX) for February was at 50.2, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in Beijing on March 1. That compared with January’s 50.5 reading and the 50.1 median analyst estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. A number above 50 signals expansion. (Bloomberg)

India's Economy Grows Slower Than Expected. India's economic growth rate slowed down in the most recent quarter, according to official figures. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.7% in the three months to December, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter. The figure was lower than analysts had been expecting. Asia's third-largest economy has been weighed down by various factors, such as high inflation, a weak currency and a drop in foreign investment. For the same period in 2012, annual GDP growth was 4.5%.This is the fifth quarter in a row that India's annual growth rate has been below the 5% mark. (BBC)

USA

US Consumer Sentiment Rises, Defying Cold Weather And Bad News. U.S. consumer sentiment rose marginally in February even as concerns about the extreme weather persisted, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment for February came in at 81.6, slightly above the 81.2 in both the preliminary February number and the final January reading. It was also slightly above the median forecast of 81.3 among economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

US Economic Growth Rate Revised Down. The US economy grew at a much slower rate from October to December than originally predicted, the US Commerce Department said. US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualised rate of 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2013, down from an initial estimate of 3.2%. The revision is down to weaker than expected consumer spending. Severe winter weather in the US is expected to slow growth further in the current quarter. The Commerce Department initially predicted consumer spending had expanded by 3.3%, but spending is now estimated to have grown at a 2.6% annual rate. (BBC)

Europe

Italy Unemployment Rises To Record High In Challenge For Renzi. Italy’s unemployment rate rose to a record high in January, signaling that companies may fail to hire even after the economy returned to growth in the last quarter of 2013. Unemployment increased to 12.9 % from 12.7 % in December, the Rome-based national statistics office Istat said in a preliminary report today. The January rate is the highest since the data series began in the first quarter of 1977. The median estimate of five economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an unemployment rate of 12.7 % last month. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Euro Jumps To 2014 High, Up 2.3% Vs. Dollar In Feb. The euro jumped to its highest level of 2014 against the dollar on Friday after euro-zone inflation was steady in February, which could reduce some pressure on the European Central Bank to take action at its next meeting. The euro jumped about one cent to $1.3806 from $1.3708 late Thursday. The British pound moved higher to $1.6742 from $1.6686 late Thursday, for a monthly gain of 1.9%. The ICE dollar index , a measure of the greenback’s strength against six other currencies, slipped to 79.753 from 80.291 late Thursday. The dollar fell to ¥101.85 from ¥102.17 late Thursday. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar declined to 89.31 U.S. cents from 89.66 U.S. cents late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Futures Gain More Than 5% For The Month. Oil futures finished higher on Friday, scoring a gain of more than 5% for the month, as climbs in U.S. consumer sentiment and Chicago PMI buoyed prospects for energy demand. Crude oil for April delivery tacked on 19 cents, or 0.2%, to settle at $102.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On the ICE Futures exchange, Brent crude for April delivery added 11 cents, or 0.1% to $109.07 a barrel, with the contract about 3% higher on the month. (Market Watch)

Gold Down For Day, But Posts Biggest Monthly Gain Since July. Gold fell on Friday as U.S. equities climbed, but the yellow metal still posted its biggest monthly gain since July as persistent concerns about a slowdown in the U.S. economy boosted bullion's safe-haven status. Spot gold was down 0.5 % at $1,324.26 an ounce by 2:54 p.m. EST (1954 GMT), about $20 below a four-month high of $1,345.35 struck on Wednesday. Among other precious metals, silver dropped 0.6% to $21.12 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.4 % to $1,441.50 an ounce and palladium gained 0.3 % to$740.75 an ounce. (Reuters)

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