Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 4 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 04 Mar 2014, 09:44 AM

Asia

China's Manufacturing Activity Shrinking Says Fresh Report. China's manufacturing sector contracted in February, according to a new report. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which measures activity in smaller factories, fell to 48.5 in February from 49.5 in January - with Chinese New Year a possible factor. China's official PMI, which was released on Saturday and measures activity in big factories, fell to an eight-month low in February of 50.2 from 50.5 in January. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. (BBC)

Strong Growth For India. Indian manufacturing activity and new orders showed their strongest growth in a year in February, according to a survey that suggested that the worst is over for Indian factories struggling through an economic slowdown. The HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which gauges the business activity of India’s factories but not its utilities, rose to 52.5 in February, its highest in a year, from 51.4 in January. (Reuters)

Indonesia January Trade Balance Tips Into Deficit. Indonesia’s trade balance tipped into deficit in January as a mineral ore ban hit exports, rekindling concerns over its large current account deficit just when it has started to narrow. The country produced a deficit after posting a US$1.52bil surplus the previous month, its largest in two years. A Reuters poll of analysts had projected a surplus of US$400mil for January. Exports in January fell a worse than expected 5.79% from a year earlier, as miners rushed their shipments last year in anticipation of higher export taxes after a mineral export ban came into effect on Jan 12. (Reuters)

USA

US Income, Spending Rise At Brisk Pace In January. Americans boosted spending in January despite the harsh winter weather but activity was much weaker in December than initially reported. The Commerce Department says that spending rose 0.4 % in January following a tiny 0.1 % gain in December which had initially been reported as a stronger 0.4 % increase. Income grew 0.3 % in January following no increase at all in December. The spending gain was better than expected but it came after the sharp downward revision in December. Consumer spending is closely watched because it drives 70 % of economic activity. (AP)

Manufacturing In U.S. Expands More Than Projected. Manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than projected in February, showing the U.S. economy is making headway in emerging from the harsh winter weather that has slowed growth in early 2014. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 53.2 from 51.3 in January, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported today. Readings above 50 signal expansion. Other figures showed consumer spending climbed more than projected in January as home-heating bills jumped and households began enrolling in the Obama administration’s health-care program. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Euro Zone Manufacturing Activity Slows. Euro zone manufacturing activity slowed slightly in February, according to Markit's purchasing managers index (PMI). The reading came in at 53.2. A figure above 50 indicates that manufacturing has expanded. Initial flash figures suggested that the index dipped to 53.0 from 54.0 in January. Despite the dip, there was positive news in the currency bloc's four biggest economies: Germany; France; Spain and Italy all recording a rise. (CNBC)

UK Manufacturing Rises In February As Employment Surges. UK manufacturing grew faster than expected in February, with employment in the sector expanding at its fastest pace in almost three years. The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)ticked up to 56.9 from 56.6 in January, higher than the 56.5 expected by economists. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. It is the eleventh consecutive month that UK manufacturing has expanded. Jobs growth in the sector rose at its fastest rate since May 2011. (BBC)

Russia Raises Main Rate As Ukraine Crisis Threatens Economy. Russia raised its main interest rate the most since 1998 as the currency plunged to a record and investors pulled money from the stock market on concern that President Vladimir Putin will invade Ukraine. The one-week auction rate, the benchmark introduced in September, was increased temporarily to 7 % from 5.5 %, the Bank Rossii said on its website today. The regulator also temporarily raised its other major lending rates by 150 basis points, or 1.5 %age points. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Up Vs. Euro, Ruble; Yen At 1-Month High. The dollar pushed higher against major rivals Monday after a round of better-than-expected U.S. data, but remained at a one-month low against the yen as tensions continued to flare up between Ukraine and Russia. The ICE dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against six rivals, rose to 80.0810 from 79.753 late Friday. The index fell 1.8% in February. The dollar fell to ¥101.39 from ¥101.85 late Friday, trading at its lowest level in one month. The euro fell to $1.3732 from $1.3806 late Friday, coming off its highest level of the year. The dollar climbed about 1.5% to 36.5085 rubles from 35.9517 rubles late Friday, according to FactSet. In other trade, the British pound declined to $1.6660 from $1.6742 late Friday. The Australian dollar was at 89.28 U.S. cents versus Friday’s level of 89.31 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Surges To Five-Month Highs On Ukraine Tension. Crude prices rose more than $2 a barrel on Monday to the highest level since September as tensions over Russian military intervention on the Crimean peninsula rattled oil markets. U.S. crude settled $2.33 higher at $104.92 a barrel, its highest settlement price in 5-1/2 months. Earlier in the session, U.S. oil climbed as high as $105.22 a barrel. Brent crude settled $2.13 higher at $111.20 per barrel, after earlier spiking $3.32 to $112.39 per barrel, its highest intra-session peak since Dec. 30. (Reuters)

Gold Jumps 2 Pct As Ukraine Crisis Fuels Flight From Risk. Gold surged about 2% to a four-month high on Monday as escalating military tension between Ukraine and Russia bolstered demand for assets perceived to be relatively safe as investors sold riskier investments such as equities. Spot gold rose as high as $1,354.80 an ounce, its loftiest since Oct. 30. Among other precious metals, silver followed gold's moves and rose 1.1 % to $21.43 an ounce. Platinum was up 1.2% at $1,458 an ounce and palladium gained 0.9 % at $745.65 an ounce. (Reuters)

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