Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 6 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 06 Mar 2014, 09:36 AM

Asia Pacific

India Current-Account Gap Narrows To Four-Year Low On Gold Tax. India’s current-account deficit narrowed to a fresh four-year low as gold imports cooled, offering a potential boost for the rupee even as economists said the gap may widen again if the economy improves. The deficit was $4.2 billion in October through December, compared with $5.2 billion for the prior quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement in Mumbai yesterday. The shortfall was equivalent to 0.9 % of gross domestic product. The current account is the broadest measure of trade, tracking goods, services and investment income. (Bloomberg)

China Sets 2014 Growth Target At 7.5%. China has set its gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2014 at 7.5%, the same as for 2013, and will keep consumer inflation at 3.5 %, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday. The government also plans for a 15.3 trillion yuan ($2.5 trillion) budget in 2014, which would produce a deficit of about 2.1% of GDP, unchanged from the actual shortfall in 2013, the finance ministry said. The country's top economic planning agency said in a report to parliament that the government will target 17.5 % annual growth in fixed-asset investment and 14.5 % in retail sales growth in 2014. (CNBC)

Australia Economy Picks Up Speed In Fourth Quarter. Australia's economy grew a solid 0.8 % last quarter as a surge in resource exports and a pick up in consumer spending helped offset a sharp pullback in business investment, an upbeat report that sent the local dollar bounding higher. Gross domestic product (GDP) advanced at a 2.8 % pace compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, up from 2.3 previously, and closer to the usual pace expected for a country that has not suffered a recession in 22 years. Median forecasts had been for GDP growth around 0.7 % in Q4 with a range of 0.6 % to 1.0 % . GDP was seen up 2.6 % on the same quarter last year, with a range of 2.4 to 2.8 %. (Reuters)

USA

Companies In U.S. Added Fewer Jobs Than Forecast In February. Companies added fewer workers than projected in February, a sign that U.S. employers were waiting for a pickup in demand before boosting headcount, a private report based on payrolls showed today. The 139,000 increase in employment followed a revised 127,000 gain in January that was weaker than initially reported, the weakest two months since August-September 2012, according to the ADP Research Institute in Roseland, New Jersey. The median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 155,000 advance. (Bloomberg)

Slackening Services Raise Concern Of U.S. Job Slump. Service industries in the U.S. grew at a slower pace than forecast in February as employment slumped by the most in more than five years, showing frigid temperatures have caused the economy to struggle. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index fell to 51.6, lower than any forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the weakest since February 2010, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. A report from the ADP Research Institute also showed companies added fewer workers than projected last month. (Bloomberg)

Fed Saw Growth Even As Harsh Weather Slowed Hiring, Sales. The Federal Reserve said the economy in most regions grew last month even as harsh winter weather impeded hiring, disrupted supply chains and kept customers away from stores and auto dealerships. Eight of the Fed’s 12 districts “reported improved levels of activity, but in most cases the increases were characterized as modest to moderate,” the Fed said today in its Beige Book business survey. The New York and Philadelphia districts reported declines that were “mostly attributed to the unusually severe weather experienced in those regions.” (Bloomberg)

Europe

Eurozone Business Growth Accelerated In February, PMI Survey Says. Business growth in the eurozone accelerated last month to its fastest pace since June 2011, a survey says. The final Markit Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February was 53.3. This was higher than an earlier, preliminary estimate of 52.7, and above the 50 level that indicates expansion. Markit said the figures indicated the eurozone is set to grow by 0.4-0.5% in the first quarter of 2014, which would be the best growth for three years. (BBC)

UK Service Sector Growth Remains Strong, PMI Survey Says. The UK service sector continued to "expand strongly" in February, a survey has said, with job creation at its fastest pace for four months. The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the sector was 58.2 last month. While this was below January's reading of 58.3, it was well above the 50 level that indicates expansion. The Markit survey also found that confidence in the economic outlook rose to its highest since September 2009. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Pares Euro Gains After Data; ECB In Focus. The dollar gave up most of its earlier gains against the euro by late Wednesday afternoon as investors weighed a round of weak U.S. economic data with an upcoming decision from the European Central Bank and monthly data due out on U.S. jobs. The euro bought $1.3731 late Wednesday afternoon, down from $1.3743 late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index , which pits the dollar against six rivals, fell to 80.106 from 80.145 in the prior session. The dollar was nearly flat at ¥102.28 compared with ¥102.27 late Tuesday, after an intraday high of ¥102.56, according to FactSet. Across the pond, the British pound rose to $1.6722 from $1.6666. The Australian dollar rose to 89.86 U.S. cents from 89.48 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Slides On Weak Demand Outlook, Ukraine Fears Subside. Oil prices slid nearly $2 per barrel on Wednesday as U.S. government data reflected weaker oil demand as Europe and the United States head into spring and refiners move into maintenance season. Brent oil for April delivery settled $1.54 lower at $107.76. The contract hit $112.39 on Monday, its highest since Dec. 30, but it had settled below the key 200-day moving average of $108.41 on Wednesday the first time one month. U.S. crude for April delivery ended the day $1.88 lower at $101.45. (Reuters)

Gold Rises After Weak U.S. Data; Supply Worry Lifts Platinum. Gold edged higher on Wednesday after weak U.S. private-sector job data and lackluster services-sector activities, but gains were slight as Washington and Moscow set up talks to reduce tensions over Ukraine, reducing gold's safe-haven bid. Spot gold was up 0.2 % at $1,337.54 an ounce by 3:48 p.m. EST (2048 GMT), following Tuesday's 1.2 % drop. Platinum was last trading up 1.1 % at $1,471.50 an ounce. Palladium rose 1.2 % to $768.50 an ounce after earlier hit an 11-month high of $779.50. Silver inched down 1 cent to $21.13 an ounce. (Reuters)

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