Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 13 Mar 2014, 09:32 AM

Asia Pacific

 Japanese Consumer Pessimism Hits New High Under Abe. While Japan Inc. may be whistling a happy tune on the back of robust profit growth and a weaker yen thanks to the pro-business agenda of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a key survey released Wednesday shows that consumers aren’t in a similar Abenomics-induced state of rapture. The Cabinet Office’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index contracted for the third straight month in February to 38.2. That’s the worst reading since Mr. Abe entered office in January 2013 and the lowest since September 2011. Respondents were even more pessimistic than during Mr. Abe’s year-long term as prime minister between September 2006 and September 2007. The survey of 8,400 households asks consumers about their feelings toward the six months ahead and how willing they are to spend. A reading below 50 indicate pessimists outnumber optimists. (WSJ)

 S. Korea Job Data Points To Recovery. South Korea’s finance minister said February job market data showed typical signs observed during an economy’s recovery, indicating the government was confident of the recovery despite weak exports. ”Employment grew as did the (job market) participation rate,” Minister Hyun Ohseok said yesterday on the sidelines of a news conference on other subjects. South Korea’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped to a near 3-year high of 3.9% in February but the rise was a result of a spike in the number of job seekers, government data showed. (Reuters)

 Thailand Reduces Key Rate As Political Unrest Hurts Economy. Thailand cut its key interest rate for the first time this year to bolster the economy as prolonged political unrest curbed local demand and hurt tourism. The Bank of Thailand cut its one-day bond repurchase rate by a quarter of a %age point to 2 %, with monetary policy committee members voting four-to-three in favor, it said in Bangkok today. Sixteen of 26 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision, with the remainder expecting the rate to be held. (Bloomberg)

 Indian CPI Eases, Factory Output Unexpectedly Rises Before Vote. Indian consumer-price inflation eased for a third straight month in February while factory output unexpectedly rose in January, as interest-rate increases cooled Asia’s fastest price rises before elections next month. The consumer-price index rose 8.1 % from a year earlier, compared with 8.79 % in January, the Statistics Ministry in New Delhi said yesterday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 45 analysts had been for an 8.3 % increase. Industrial output expanded 0.1 % in January, a separate report showed. (Bloomberg)

 N.Z. Raises Rate To Become First Developed Nation To Tighten. New Zealand’s central bank raised its key interest rate, the first developed nation to exit record-low borrowing costs this year, and said it plans to remove stimulus faster than earlier forecast to contain prices. “It is necessary to raise interest rates toward a level at which they are no longer adding to demand,” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Graeme Wheeler said in a statement in Wellington after increasing the official cash rate by a quarter %age point to 2.75 %, as forecast by all 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The Kiwi gained after Wheeler said further increases are likely in coming months and the OCR may rise by a total of 125 basis points this year. (Bloomberg)

 Australia Consumer Confidence Falls To 10-Month Low In March. A measure of Australian consumer sentiment slipped for a fourth month in March with households worried about the economic outlook and their jobs. The survey of 1,200 people by the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank showed the index of consumer sentiment fell a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in March from February, when it had fallen by 3.0%. The index reading of 99.5 was the lowest since May last year, and it was down 10.0% over the past 12 months. The fall below 100 means pessimists now exceed optimists. (Reuters)

USA

 US Mortgage Applications Slip In Latest Week. Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell in the latest week as interest rates edged higher, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 2.1 % to 373.3 in the week ended March 7. The interest rate on fixed 30-year mortgages averaged 4.52 % last week, up 5 basis points from the previous week. (Reuters)

Europe

 Non-Euro States Help EU's Slow Industrial Recovery. The slow recovery of Europe's industrial sector has been boosted by a better performance in countries outside the euro bloc. Industrial output in the 18-nation eurozone fell 0.2% in January compared with December. But in the full 28-country European Union (EU28), output was up 0.1%, reversing December's falls. Compared with a year ago, industrial production grew 2.1% in the euro area and 2.4% in the EU28. (BBC)

Currencies

 Aussie Recovers With Copper; Euro Above $1.39. The Australian dollar recovered against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, buoyed by a slight move higher in copper futures, which have become a proxy for investor concerns in China. The Aussie swung higher against the greenback, rising to 89.87 U.S. cents from Tuesday’s level of 89.78 U.S. cents. The New Zealand dollar jumped to 85.20 U.S. cents from 84.52 U.S. cents in the wake of the decision. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six rivals, fell to 79.614 from 79.790 late Tuesday. Meanwhile, the euro rose to $1.3904 from $1.3860 late Tuesday. The dollar dropped to ¥102.76 from ¥102.95 late Tuesday. The British pound was little changed at $1.6619 versus $1.6616. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 Brent Slips Towards $108 As Demand Worries Offset Ukraine Tensions. Brent futures fell towards $108 a barrel on Wednesday as demand growth concerns at the world's two biggest oil consumers overshadowed fears of supply disruption with geopolitical tensions over Ukraine worsening. Brent crude lost 19 cents to $108.36 a barrel by 0301 GMT, after ending 47 cents higher. U.S. oil declined 47 cents to $99.56, after settling down $1.09 at $100.03, its lowest since February 11. (Reuters)

 Gold Up 1.3 Pct To Highest Since Sept On China, Ukraine. Gold surged 1.3% on Wednesday, hitting a near six-month high as fears of more corporate defaults in China and the geopolitical tug-of-war between Russia, Ukraine and the West boosted bullion's appeal as an insurance against riskier assets. Spot gold gained 1.3 % to $1,367.04 an ounce by 1:59 p.m. EDT (1759 GMT), having reached $1,370.60, the loftiest since Sept. 20. In other precious metals, silver gained 2.1% to $21.25 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.8 % at $1,469 an ounce, while palladium rose 0.8 % to $771.10 an ounce. (Reuters) 

 

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