Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 17 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 17 Mar 2014, 09:42 AM

China

China Widens Yuan Trading Band To 2% From 1%. China's central bank loosened its grip on the yuan on Saturday by doubling the daily trading range for the currency, adding teeth to a promise it would allow market forces to play a greater role in the economy and its markets. Analysts said the move was a sign of confidence that the central bank had successfully fought off a plague of currency speculators, and at the same time signaled that regulators believe the economy is stable enough to handle more promised reforms going forward. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said the exchange rate will be allowed to rise or fall 2 % from a daily midpoint rate it sets each morning. The change is effective from Monday. (Reuters)

USA

Consumer Sentiment In U.S. Unexpectedly Falls On Outlook. Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in March to a four-month low, indicating household spending may be slow to pick up from a weather-related setback earlier this year. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment fell to 79.9 this month from 81.6 in February. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for the measure to increase to 82. (Bloomberg)

Wholesale Prices In U.S. Unexpectedly Drop On Services. Producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped in February, held back by the biggest decrease in the cost of services in almost a year. The 0.1 % decrease in the producerprice index followed a 0.2 % rise the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. None of the 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a decrease. Over the past 12 months, wholesale prices rose 0.9 %, the smallest year-to-year gain since May. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Yen Up Ahead Of Crimea Vote; Euro Rises Vs. Dollar. The yen gained Friday as tensions rose ahead of Sunday’s referendum in Crimea, discouraging investors from currencies they perceived to be riskier. The dollar fell to ¥101.40 from ¥102.62 late Thursday, for a weekly loss of 1.8%. The euro rose to $1.3910 from late Thursday’s level of $1.3859. For the week, the euro has gained nearly 0.3% against the dollar. Meanwhile, the British pound rose to $1.6648 from $1.6624 late Thursday, but posted a weekly loss of 0.4% against the dollar. The ICE dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six rivals, fell to 79.406 from 79.612 on Thursday, for a weekly loss of 0.4%. The Australian dollar moved up to 90.32 U.S. cents from 90.23 U.S. cents, extending gains after Australia posted monthly jobs growth that outstripped expectations. (Market Watch)

Commodities

IEA Raises 2014 Oil Demand Forecast On Improving Economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2014 as the world economic backdrop improves, but warned that the crisis in Ukraine could still drag down consumption. The latest estimate of 92.7 million barrels per day is an increase of 95,000 barrels a day above last month's forecast, with emerging markets expected to provide most of the gain, the IEA said. It is also the fourth straight month that the agency is raising its demand outlook. "Growth momentum is expected to benefit from a more robust global economic backdrop," said the IEA in its monthly oil market report. "The pace of growth will likely build through the year, as underlying macro-economic conditions improve, but the standoff in Ukraine has increased downside risk to the forecast," it added. (Reuters)

Brent Rises By More Than $1 Ahead Of Crimea Referendum. Brent crude oil rose by more than $1 on Friday as traders worried about the war of words between Moscow and the West might escalate sharply this weekend if Crimea holds its referendum on joining Russia. The Brent crude oil contract for April delivery, which expired Friday, settled $1.18 higher at $108.57. The May contract, which will become the front month contract on Monday, settled $1.29 higher at $108.21. U.S. crude settled 69 cents higher at $98.89 a barrel, but closed for the week at its lowest point since the end of January. (Reuters)

Gold Hits 6-Month High On Ukraine Worries; Up For Week. Gold rose to a six-month high on Friday as investors turned to bullion as a safe-haven from East-West tensions before a vote planned for Sunday on whether Ukraine's Crimea region should join Russia. Spot gold rose as much as 1.4 % to its highest level since Sept. 9 at $1,387.90 an ounce early in the session before it later pared gains. Among other precious metals, silver followed gold's moves, with a 1 % increase to $21.35 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.6 % at $1,463 an ounce, while palladium fell 0.5 % to $769.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

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