Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 19 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 19 Mar 2014, 09:32 AM

Malaysia

 Vehicle Sales Up 1.13% On-Year To 50,718 Units In Feb. The sale of passenger and commercial vehicles in February increased by 1.13% to 50,718 units from 45,046 units in the same month in 2013. The Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said of the 50,718 units sold in February, 45,704 were passenger vehicles and the remaining 5,014 commercial units. MAA said the sales volume in February was also higher than January 2014 by 0.9%. "The higher number recorded was due to better performance by Proton and Perodua," the MAA said in a statement. On the outlook for March, the MAA said the sales volume is expected to be better than the February level, due to the longer working month, rush of deliveries by companies whose financial year ends in March 31, 2014, and introduction of new models. (Bernama)

Asia

 Jan-Feb Foreign Direct Investment In China Rises 10.4%. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China increased 10.4% year-on-year in the first two months of 2014, the government said Tuesday, while the country's outbound investment slumped. FDI, which excludes investment in financial sectors, totalled US$19.31bil cumulatively in January and February, the commerce ministry said in a statement. Foreign investors "remained confident in investment in China", ministry spokesman Shen Danyang told reporters, but acknowledged that "international investment remained low and there were various development problems within the country". Separately, Chinese overseas investment in the two months fell 37.2% year-on-year to US$11.54bil, the ministry said, with investment to Hong Kong and the European Union leading the decline. (Reuters)

Americas

 Inflation In U.S. Shows Little Pickup As Fed Meets. The cost of living in the U.S. was little changed in February, showing inflation remains well below the Federal Reserve’s goal as policy makers meet to decide on the path of interest rates. The consumer-price index increased 0.1 %, matching the advance in January and pushing the gain over the past 12 months down to 1.1 %, the smallest since October, according to figures from the Labor Department issued today in Washington. Another report showed homebuilding was stabilizing after harsh winter weather curbed the construction industry. (Bloomberg)

 Housing Starts In U.S. Little Changed From Stronger January. Housing starts in the U.S. were little changed in February after declining less than previously estimated a month earlier, indicating the home-building industry is stabilizing after bad winter weather curbed construction. The 0.2 % decrease to 907,000 homes at an annualized rate last month followed a revised 909,000 pace in January, figures from the Commerce Department in Washington showed today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 910,000 rate after a previously reported 880,000 in January. (Bloomberg)

 Moody's Cuts Argentina Rating, Citing Reserves Fall. Moody's lowered its credit rating for Argentina by one step Monday, citing a sharp fall in the country's reserves and inconsistent economic policies. Moody's cut the rating to Caa1 from B3, putting it in the mid-range of "speculative" or junk bonds. The agency also cut its outlook for Argentina to negative from stable – a warning that the country could face another downgrade. Moody's said a sharp fall in the government's foreign exchange reserves, to US$27.5bill from US$52.7bil in 2011, increases the risk that Buenos Aires "may not meet its foreign-currency debt service obligations." (AFP)

Europe

 German ZEW Investor Confidence Falls To Lowest Since August. German investor confidence fell to the lowest since August as political uncertainty in Ukraine threatens to weigh on a recovery in Europe’s largest economy that may be nearing its peak. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 46.6 from 55.7 in February. That’s the third monthly decline. Economists forecast a decline to 52, according to the median of 41 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gauge reached a seven-year high of 62 in December. (Bloomberg)

 UK Manufacturers Optimistic For 2014, Says EEF. UK manufacturers are enjoying a strong start to the year and are confident about the outlook, according to their industry body, the EEF. Its survey of 322 companies, conducted during January and February, showed stronger output and orders than in the final quarter of last year. Measures of recruitment and investment intentions were at the highest level recorded by the survey. Export orders were up strongly from the previous quarter. (BBC)

 European Car Sales Continue Turnaround With Monthly Surge. Car sales in Europe continued to show strong growth in February, posting a 7.6 % increase from the same period in 2013, according to an industry body. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturer's Association (ACEA) on Tuesday morning showed a sixth consecutive monthly rise for new passenger car registrations in the 28 members of the European Union. This was a monthly increase of 8.0%. (CNBC)

 Russia Sounds Alarm On Economy As West Starts With Sanctions. Russia’s economy is showing signs of a crisis, the government in Moscow said as the U.S. and the European Union announced sanctions over its plan to annex the Crimea region from Ukraine. “The situation in the economy bears clear signs of a crisis,” Deputy Economy Minister Sergei Belyakov said in Moscow yesterday. The cabinet needs to refrain from raising the fiscal burden on companies, which would be the “wrong approach,” he said. “Taking money from companies and asking them afterward to modernize production is illogical and strange.” (Bloomberg)

Currencies

 China To Allow Direct Yuan, New Zealand Dollar Trades. China has allowed direct domestic trading of the yuan against the New Zealand dollar to encourage such trading as it internationalizes the Chinese currency. The move, announced on Tuesday by the central bank during a visit by New Zealand Prime Minister John Key to Beijing, comes after China doubled the yuan's trading band over the weekend in a milestone step that gives investors more freedom to set the value of the tightly controlled currency. China is New Zealand's largest export destination and a major buyer of dairy products produced in the South Pacific nation. The move was seen as promoting trade between the two countries, which rose 25.2% to NZ$18.2 billion ($15.71 billion) in 2013, and increase capital flows. (Reuters)

 Aussie Gains On Rates Guidance; Fed Up Next. The U.S. dollar fell against the Australian unit Tuesday after its central bank suggested rates would remain steady for some time, while investors looked ahead to guidance on U.S. interest rates Wednesday at the close of the two-day Federal Reserve meeting. The Australian dollar rose to 91.28 U.S. cents from 90.89 U.S. cents. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the currency’s strength, edged up to 79.389 from 79.363. The dollar edged down to 36.2492 rubles from 36.2865 rubles late Monday. The euro was at $1.3932 versus late Monday’s $1.3927. The greenback fell against the Japanese yen, buying ¥101.41 versus ¥101.71 late Monday. The British pound was little changed at $1.6589 from $1.6593. (Market Watch)

Commodities

 U.S. Oil Climbs More Than $1/Bbl On Strong Equities, Ukraine. U.S. crude oil futures rose by more than $1 per barrel to its highest price in a week on Tuesday, following strong gains in equities outweighed forecasts for another build in domestic supplies, while Brent was bolstered by concerns over violence in Crimea. U.S. crude settled $1.62 higher at $99.70 per barrel. Prices had mostly fallen in recent weeks since touching a five-month high of $105.22 on March 3 when worries of war in Ukraine peaked, and settled 81 cents lower on Monday. Brent crude oil settled 55 cents higher at $106.79 per barrel, after hitting a six-week low on Monday. (Reuters)

 Gold Drops On Equities Gain As Ukraine Worries Lessen. Gold fell on Tuesday as investors chose riskier assets such as equities after Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest comments eased tensions in Ukraine. Spot gold was down 0.6% an ounce at $1,358.79 by 2:41 PM EST (1941 GMT). Spot gold was down 0.6 % an ounce at $1,358.79 by 2:41 PM EST (1941 GMT). In other precious metals, silver fell 1.6 % to $20.80 an ounce. Platinum was down 0.3 % at $1,455.25 an ounce and palladium dropped 0.6 % to $764.80 an ounce. (Reuters)

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