Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 26 March 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 26 Mar 2014, 09:48 AM

Malaysia

M’sia Economy To Remain Robust: World Bank. Despite the potential impact from fiscal consolidation, Malaysia's economic growth prospects will remain robust this year, supported by improvements in exports, said an economist. World Bank Senior Country Economist for Malaysia, Dr Frederico Gil Sander, said the country could rely on the export and domestic sectors when needed. "Malaysia is a stable country in term of growth rate. I think it is not going to be different from what we had before," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Global Malaysia Series talk here today. Gil Sander said this when asked to comment on Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) this year. Last year, World Bank forecast Malaysia's GDP growth to moderate from 5.6% in 2012 to 4.5% in 2013. The government is committed to reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP in 2015 and achieving a balanced budget in 2020. Sander said Malaysia needed a comprehensive approach to transform the education system to produce human capital and connect with innovative and high-technology companies. (Bernama)

USA

Consumer Confidence In U.S. Rises To A Six-Year High. Consumer confidence unexpectedly climbed in March to the highest level in six years, propelled by improved optimism about the economy’s prospects, signaling growth will strengthen after a weather-related slowdown. The Conference Board’s sentiment index rose to 82.3, the highest since January 2008 and exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists, from 78.3 in February, the New York-based private research group said today. Other figures showed the housing market was having trouble gaining traction, in part because of harsh winter weather earlier this year. (Bloomberg)

Sales Of New U.S. Homes Fell In February To Five-Month Low. Purchases of new homes in the U.S. fell in February to the lowest level in five months, a sign the industry may take time to pick up after inclement weather damped demand earlier in the year. Sales declined 3.3 percent to a 440,000 annualized pace, following a 455,000 rate in the prior month that was the strongest in a year, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 445,000. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK Inflation Sinks To 4-Year Low, House Prices Surge. U.K. inflation sunk to its lowest level in more than 4 years in February, dipping further below the Bank of England's 2 percent target, as fuel prices fell. Consumer prices rose 1.7 percent year-on-year, in line with expectations and down from 1.9 percent in January, easing the price pressure on household incomes, the U.K's Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. The ONS also said house prices in the U.K. surged 6.8 percent in the year to January 2014, up from 5.5 percent in December last year. In London, where the property prices continually hit record highs, the cost of housing soared by 13.2 percent year-on-year. (CNBC)

German Businesses Unsettled By Crimea Tensions. German business sentiment dipped slightly in March, failing to meet analysts' expectations, according to the latest data from Germany's Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The Ifo business climate is a widely observed early indicator for economic development in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy. The March data, released on Tuesday morning, showed a fall to 110.7, failing to meet analysts' predictions in a Reuters poll for a reading of 111.0. In February, the Ifo index had come in at 111.3. (CNBC)

Currencies

Dollar Gives Up Gains After Mixed U.S. Data. The U.S. dollar cut its rise after a round of mixed U.S. data on Tuesday, but held narrowly higher against key rivals. The U.S. dollar bought ¥102.29 yen, versus ¥102.24 late Monday. The ICE dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major rivals, inched up to 79.939, up from 79.923 late Monday, but was down from 80.14 prior to the data. The euro last changed hands at $1.3827, down slightly from $1.3838 in North American trade late Monday. The British pound rose to $1.6532 versus $1.6499. The Australian dollar advanced to 91.66 U.S. cents, up from 91.31 cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Rises On Russia Risk, Nigeria, Libya Supply Concerns. Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday on renewed geopolitical risk over Russia and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Libya, while U.S. crude was pressured lower by forecasts for a stock build. Brent crude rose just 18 cents to settle at $106.99. U.S. crude fell 41 cents to settle at $99.19 per barrel. (Reuters)

Bargain Hunting, Technicals Lift Gold From 5-Week Lows. Gold edged up on Tuesday as a combination of bargain hunting, technical buying and lingering geopolitical tensions helped bullion to rebound from its previous session's two percent drop. Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,311.26 an ounce by 1:57 p.m. EDT (1757 GMT), having earlier hit $1,305.59. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.1 percent to $19.91 an ounce and platinum fell 0.5 percent to $1,415.50 an ounce. Palladium also slipped 0.7 percent to $786 an ounce, having touched its highest since August 2011 at $799.50 in the previous session on worries of supply disruptions from top producers Russia and South Africa. (Reuters)

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