Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 28 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 28 Mar 2014, 09:50 AM

Asia

Japan Feb Core CPI Rises 1.3 Pct. Japan's core consumer prices rose 1.3 % in February from a year earlier, posting a ninth straight month of gains, government data showed, a sign the economy is making steady progress to overcome 15 years of mild deflation. The year-on-year gain in the core consumer price index, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, matched economists' median estimate for a 1.3 % gain. It also followed a 1.3 % gain in January and December, which marked the quickest rise since 1.9 % in October 2008. The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices and is similar to the core index used in the United States, rose 0.8 % in the year to February. It matched a high last hit in April 1998. (Reuters)

Philippines Raises Reserve Ratio As Rate Increase Seen Nearing. The Philippine central bank ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves to curb liquidity, a move that analysts say could signal increases in the benchmark interest rate in the coming months. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised the reserve requirement to 19 % from 18 % for universal and commercial banks effective April 4, it said in a statement in Manila today. It kept the rate it pays lenders for overnight deposits at a record-low 3.5 %, as forecast by 13 of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, with three expecting an increase of a quarter of a percentage point. (Bloomberg)

USA

US Economy Expanded In Fourth Quarter; Jobless Claims Tumble. U.S. economic growth was a bit faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, displaying underlying strength that could bolster views that the slowdown in activity early in the year would be temporary. The economic picture was also brightened by other data on Thursday showing new applications for unemployment benefits falling last week to their lowest level in nearly four months. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.6 % annual rate, the Commerce Department said, up from the 2.4 % pace it reported last month. In a separate report, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 311,000, the lowest level since November. Economists had expected first-time applications for jobless benefits to rise to 325,000 in the week ended March 22. (Reuters)

Pending Sales Of Existing Homes In U.S. Decline For Eighth Month. Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly fell in February for an eighth straight month, a sign of further weakness in the industry. The index of pending home sales decreased 0.8 % after a 0.2 % drop the prior month that was previously reported as a gain, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 % rise. (Bloomberg)

Europe

U.K. February Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast On Food. U.K. retail sales rose more than three times as much as economists forecast in February as Internet sales and spending on food surged, signaling the recovery maintained its momentum in the first quarter. Sales including auto fuel increased 1.7 % from January, when they declined a revised 2 %, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. That compared with a forecast for an increase of 0.5 %, according to the median of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. (Bloomberg)

Ukraine Wins IMF Lifeline As Russia Faces Growth Slump. Ukraine won a $27-billion international financial lifeline on Thursday, rushed through in the wake of Russia's annexation of Crimea, while Moscow's economy minister acknowledged that his country's growth would slow dramatically as funds flee abroad. The International Monetary Fund announced a $14-18 billion standby credit for Kiev in return for tough economic reforms that will unlock further aid from the European Union, the United States and other lenders over two years, effectively pulling Kiev closer to Europe. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Gains; Euro Weaker On ECB Easing Talk. The dollar gained against the euro and other rivals Thursday as investors bet the Federal Reserve will start hiking rates before Europe’s central bank, which has signaled it could loosen monetary policy soon. The euro changed hands at $1.3744, down 0.3% on the day. The U.S. dollar rose versus the Japanese yen, fetching ¥102.17 versus around ¥101.90 in North American trade late Wednesday. The ICE dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, rose 0.1% to 80.123. The Australian dollar gained 0.5% versus the U.S. currency to 92.61 U.S. cents. The British pound rose 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.6614. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Rises On Russia Risk, Nigeria, Libya Supply Concerns. Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday on renewed geopolitical risk over Russia and supply disruptions in Nigeria and Libya, while U.S. crude was pressured lower by forecasts for a stock build. Brent crude rose just 18 cents to settle at $106.99. U.S. crude fell 41 cents to settle at $99.19 per barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Down About 1 % On Strong U.S. Growth Outlook. Gold dropped about 1 % on Thursday, breaking below $1,300 an ounce for the first time since mid-February, as encouraging U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter diminished the metal's appeal as a hedge. Spot gold was down 0.9 % at $1,291.56 an ounce by 3:06 p.m. EDT (1906 GMT), having earlier hit $1,288.80, which was a six-week low. Among other precious metals, silver edged down 0.2 % to $19.65 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.4 % to $1,396 an ounce, while palladium was down 2.7 % at $754.75 an ounce as investors took profit after a recent rally on supply worries in South Africa. (Reuters)

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