Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 31 Mac 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 31 Mar 2014, 09:42 AM

Asia

US Must Show Flexibility For Pacific Trade Breakthrough, Says Japan. Japan said on Friday it would be difficult to achieve a breakthrough in talks with the United States on a Pacific trade deal in time for President Barack Obama's trip to Asia next month unless Washington shows flexibility. The two sides had made "very slow but steady progress" in talks in Washington this week on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan's deputy chief trade negotiator Hiroshi Oe told reporters. Asked if a breakthrough was possible before Obama's visit to Japan and other parts of Asia from April 22, Oe said this would be "difficult." "In order to make a breakthrough, the United States has to show flexibility," he said. The United States wants Japan to open up its rice, beef and pork, dairy and sugar sectors while Japan is keen for a timetable on U.S. promises to drop tariffs of 2.5 % on imports of passenger cars and 25 % on light trucks. (Reuters)

USA

US Spending And Income Rise In February As Tough Winter Ends. U.S. consumer spending rose in February, in the latest sign that the economy was regaining strength after being chilled by bad weather. The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending increased 0.3 % last month after rising by a revised 0.2 % in January. Spending was previously reported to have increased 0.4 % in January. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.3 % in February. Income rose 0.3 % last month after rising by the same margin in January. It continues to be supported by government transfers for health-care payments. (Reuters)

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls In March. U.S. consumer sentiment fell in March as consumers were less hopeful about the prospects for the overall economy, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final March reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 80.0, up a tick from the preliminary 79.9 March reading but down from an 81.6 the month before. It was slightly below the median forecast of 80.5 among economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

Europe

UK Current Account Deficit Near Record High At £22.4bn. The UK's current account deficit was larger than expected in the final quarter of last year, official figures have shown. The deficit in the three months to December was £22.4bn, only marginally lower than the all-time high of £22.8bn recorded in the previous quarter. Economists had expected the UK's deficit to narrow to about £14bn in the final three months of the year. One analyst described the deficit as "worryingly large". The current account deficit for the year was £71.1bn, equal to 4.4% of UK GDP and slightly lower than the highest current account deficit of 4.6% of GDP recorded in 1989, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. (BBC)

UK GDP Growth Estimate For 2013 Revised Down To 1.7%. The UK's economy grew by 1.7% last year, official figures show, less than the previous estimate of 1.8%. It is the second time the estimate for GDP growth in 2013 has been cut, after an initial estimate of 1.9%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the final quarter of 2013, unchanged from its previous estimate. Business investment rose 2.4% in the fourth quarter, the ONS confirmed. (BBC)

Spanish CPI Shock Flags Euro Deflation Risks. The euro and benchmark German bond yields slid to three-week lows on Friday as a surprise fall in Spanish inflation bolstered investors' bets the European Central Bank will ease policy next week to ward off the threat of deflation. The 0.2 % annual decline in Spanish consumer prices this month was larger than expected, the weakest figure since October 2009, and enough to push Spanish 10-year government bond yields to a new eight-year low. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Falls Against Euro But Is Set For Monthly Gain. The dollar fell against the euro Friday but remained on track for a weekly and monthly gain, as investors look ahead to March euro-zone inflation data that could tip the scale for or against looser monetary policy from the European Central Bank. The euro rose to $1.3759 from $1.3744 late Thursday, posting a weekly loss of 0.3%. The dollar jumped to 102.82 yen from ¥102.17 late Thursday, netting a 0.5% weekly gain. The Australian dollar fell to 92.46 U.S. cents from 92.61 U.S. cents, but posted a weekly gain of 1.8%. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against six rivals, rose to 80.170 from 80.123. The British pound gained to $1.6647 from $1.6614 late Thursday, posting a weekly gain of nearly 1%. (Reuters)

Commodities

Oil Prices Edge Higher On Geopolitical Concerns. Brent crude oil rose for a fourth straight session on Friday, notching its first weekly gain since February, on promising U.S. economic data and concern that possible Western sanctions on Russia's energy sector could disrupt global supplies. Brent rose 24 cents to settle at $108.07 a barrel. U.S. crude gained 39 cents a barrel to settle at $101.67, after gaining more than $1 in each of the past two sessions. (Reuters)

Gold Bounces From 6-Week Lows, Marks Second Weekly Loss. Gold turned higher after touching six-week lows under $1,300 an ounce on Friday, but marked its second straight weekly decline as an improving U.S. economic outlook lifted the dollar and bolstered appetite for risk. Spot gold fell to its lowest since Feb. 12 at $1,285.34 an ounce in earlier dealing before rebounding to trade up 0.3 % at $1,294.16 by 2:40 p.m. EDT (1840 GMT). Silver gained 0.5 % to $19.77 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.86 % at $1,403.75 an ounce, while palladium gained 2.5 % to $771.75 an ounce as a miners' strike in South Africa continued for the tenth week. (Reuters)

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