Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 14 Apr 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 14 Apr 2014, 09:48 AM

Global

Reforms To IMF Hit Deadlock. Reforms to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have hit a deadlock despite a declaration from global financial chiefs that they would move forward without the United States if it fails to ratify the changes by year-end, a G-20 official said. he inability to proceed with giving emerging markets a more powerful voice at the IMF and shoring up the lender’s resources appeared the most contentious issue for officials from the Group of 20 leading economies and the representatives for all IMF member nations who met over the weekend. In a final communique, G-20 finance ministers and central bankers said they were “deeply disappointed” with the US delay. (Reuters)

Malaysia

Zeti Signals Confidence Malaysia Inflation To Remain Contained. Malaysia’s central bank Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said the country’s accelerating inflation doesn’t make her nervous, and signaled confidence price increases will remain contained and moderate in 2016. “We don’t see these second-round effects emerging” from faster price increases, Zeti, 66, said in an interview in Washington on April 12. “We know the source of the inflation. It is not induced from strong demand, because this is a period when demand is quite modest.” (Bloomberg)

Asia

Thai Finance Minister Sees Further Cuts To Growth Outlook. Thai growth forecasts will probably have to be cut further in the face of ongoing political instability, Thai Finance Minister Kittirat Na Ranong said on Saturday. Months of anti-government protests have taken their toll on consumer confidence, consumption and tourism in Southeast Asia's second largest economy. he Thai central bank has cut its growth forecast for 2014 to 2.7 % and the finance ministry has pencilled in 2.6 %. Kittirat said both might have to be revised down. It's possible that if the political situation should drag on and on, the forecast would drop further," he said in an interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring 2014 meetings in Washington. (Reuters)

China’s Inflation Stays Below Target As Producer Prices Drop. Consumer inflation in China remained below the government’s target in March while factory-gate deflation deepened, giving Premier Li Keqiang more scope to roll out measures to support growth. The consumer price index rose 2.4 % from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, matching the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The producer price index fell 2.3 %, after a 2 % drop in February, extending the decline to 25 months. (Bloomberg)

USA

US Consumer Sentiment Hits 9-Month High In April. U.S. consumer sentiment rose in April to its highest in nine months as both current conditions and expectations brightened, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary April reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 82.6, the highest since July, compared with the final reading of 80.0 in March. It was also above the median forecast of 81.0 among economists polled by Reuters. (Reuters)

US Producer Prices Soar By Fastest Rate In 9 Months In March. U.S. producer prices recorded their largest increase in nine months in March as the cost of food and services rose, pointing to some pockets of inflation at the factory gate. The Labor Department said on Friday its seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand increased 0.5 % last month after slipping 0.1 % in February. That was the largest increase since June last year. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast prices received by the nation's farms, factories and refineries edging up 0.1 % last month. Food prices jumped 1.1%, the largest increase since May, after rising 0.6 % in February. (Reuters)

Europe

ECB Hints At Further Stimulus To Combat Low Inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) has said it will provide "further stimulus" to the eurozone economy if inflation in the bloc continues to remain low. Mario Draghi, the bank's president, said a stronger euro would act as a trigger to looser monetary policy. The rise of the single currency's exchange rate is one of the main reasons eurozone inflation is at a dangerously low 0.5%. One of Mr Draghi's stimulus options would be quantitative easing (QE). That is something the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been suggesting as concerns grow about deflation in the eurozone. (BBC)

UK Construction Output Shrinks 2.8% In February. Output in the construction industry fell sharply in February as extreme weather halted work on building sites, official figures have shown. Output fell by 2.8% - £270m - compared with a month earlier, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. But in the three months to the end of February, construction output grew 0.3% compared with the previous quarter. Despite signs of improvement, the construction industry remains 13.2% below its pre recession peak. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Falls More Than 1% Vs. Euro, Yen On Week. The dollar posted weekly losses of more than 1% against the euro and yen as investors readjusted their views on the future path of interest rates after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed officials hadn’t changed their outlook on monetary policy. The dollar rose to ¥101.69 from ¥101.49 late Thursday, but posted a weekly loss of 1.5%. The euro was steady at $1.3886, for a weekly gain of 1.3%. The ICE dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against six rivals, was at 79.492 versus 79.411 late Thursday. The British pound fell to $1.6736 from $1.6784. The pound was weighed on by a 2.8% decline in construction output in February from January. The Australian dollar fell to 93.95 U.S. cents from 94.13 U.S. late in the prior session. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Futures Tally A Nearly 3% Climb For The Week. Oil futures finished higher on Friday as a rise in U.S. consumer sentiment to a nine-month high buoyed the outlook for energy demand, and after the International Energy Agency reported much lower OPEC production in March and warned of the prospects for further output declines. Crude oil for May delivery tacked on 34 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $103.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tapping a high at $104.44. For the week, prices scored a 2.6% gain, based on the most-active contracts. On the ICE Futures exchange, May Brent shed 13 cents, or 0.1%, to end at $107.33 a barrel, with the contract still closing roughly 0.6% higher on the week. (Market Watch)

Gold Up On Week; Palladium At Highest Since 2011. Gold futures closed with a modest loss on Friday, on the back of a stronger U.S. dollar and upbeat economic data, but prices still scored a gain on the week as investors remained wary of sharp losses on Wall Street. Gold for June delivery fell by $1.50, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,319 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, pulling back after a climb of 1.1% in the previous session. Prices saw a gain of around 1.2% for the week. May silver settled at $19.95 an ounce, a loss of 14.5 cents, or 0.7%, to end about flat for the week. June palladium gained $14.50, or 1.8%, to $806.80 an ounce, for a climb of roughly 2% from a week ago. Sister metal platinum saw its July contract rise $2.50, or 0.2%, to $1,462.60 an ounce, ending about 0.8% higher for the week. (Market Watch)

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