Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 Apr 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 29 Apr 2014, 02:49 PM

Asia

China, Japan Key Threats To Asia's Economic Outlook: IMF. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in China due to financial sector vulnerabilities coupled with the failure of Abenomics to sustainably turnaround Japan's economy are two main risks to Asia's economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. Nevertheless, the IMF expects growth in Asia to remain steady at 5.4 % this year, up from an earlier 5.3 % forecast, before improving slightly to 5.5 % next year. Last year, the region grew 5.2 %. Asia also faces risks originating from outside the region it warned, noting a sudden or sharper-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions remains a threat. (CNBC)

Japan Retail Sales Surge On Tax Hike. Retail sales in Japan grew at the fastest pace in 17 years in March as consumers rushed to make purchases ahead of the sales tax hike in April. Sales jumped 11% during the month, from a year ago - the most since March 1997. Japan raised its sales tax, also known as consumption tax, to 8% from 5% from 1 April, the first hike in 17 years. The hike comes as Japan has been looking to rein in public debt, while facing rising social welfare costs linked to an ageing population. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its gross domestic product (GDP), is the highest in the industrialised world. (BBC)

North America

Pending Sales Of U.S. Existing Homes Rise Most Since 2011. Contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes climbed in March by the most in almost three years, showing residential real estate was starting to stabilize entering the spring selling season. The pending home sales index rose 3.4 %, the most since May 2011 and the first gain in nine months, after a 0.5 % drop in February that was smaller than initially reported, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 1 % increase. The gauge is 7.4 % below a year earlier. (Bloomberg)

Debt Paydown Projected By U.S. To Be Biggest In Seven Years. The U.S. Treasury Department announced the biggest quarterly paydown of government debt in seven years, as a stronger labor market helps boost tax revenue. The drop in net marketable debt will be $78 billion in the April-June period, $38 billion more than the paydown projected three months ago, with an end-of-June cash balance of $130 billion, the Treasury said today in Washington. The improvement will be short lived -- net borrowing of $169 billion is projected next quarter, with $130 billion in cash Sept. 30. (Bloomberg)

Canadian Consumer Confidence Reaches Almost 4-Year High. Canadian consumer confidence was the highest in almost four years last week as sentiment about the job market improved and the real-estate outlook remained strong. The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index climbed to 60.1 in the week ended April 25, the highest since 60.2 in June 2010. The prior week’s figure of 60.0 was the highest since March 2011. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Gets Boost Vs. Yen From Housing Data, Yields. The dollar rose against the Japanese yen on Monday after U.S. housing data suggested the pace of existing-home sales may pick up, relieving some pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates near zero. The dollar rose to ¥102.46 from ¥102.14 late Friday, in line with an increase in U.S. Treasury yields on Monday. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six rivals, fell to 79.695 from 79.763 late Friday. The euro rose to $1.3851 from $1.3836 late Friday. The British pound was little changed at $1.6809 versus $1.6804 late Friday. The Australian dollar inched down to 92.59 U.S. cents from 92.69 U.S. cents late Friday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Crude Tumbles As Libya Exports Rise; WTI Gap Narrows. Brent crude oil prices fell almost $1.50 a barrel on Monday as Libya prepared to resume exports from an eastern port, while the spread versus U.S. futures abruptly narrowed after widening for two weeks. June Brent fell $1.46 to settle at $108.12 per barrel, while U.S. crude reversed earlier losses to settle up 24 cents at $100.84. The falling Brent and rising U.S. crude narrowed the gap between the two benchmarks to $7.28 a barrel at settlement, after the gap widened to more than $9 from nearly $3 over the previous two weeks. Monday's move of nearly $2 in the Brent-WTI spread was the biggest one-day gain this year. (Reuters)

Gold Slides Below $1,300 After Strong U.S. Housing Data. Signs of a strengthening U.S. housing market helped push gold prices below $1,300 an ounce on Monday, despite heightened geopolitical tensions over the situation in Ukraine. Spot gold was down 0.5 % at $1,295.79 an ounce by 3:41 p.m. EDT (1941 GMT). Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.4 % to $19.53 an ounce. Platinum inched down 45 cents to $1,414.75 an ounce, while palladium was down 0.8% to $799.72 an ounce. (Reuters)

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