Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 5 May 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 05 May 2014, 09:44 AM

Asia

Japan Household Spending Jumps, Jobs Market Improves. Household spending in Japan rose 7.2 % in March from a year earlier as consumers stepped up spending ahead of an April 1 rise in the country's consumption tax, data on Friday showed. The rise compared with forecasts for a 1 % increase by economists polled by Reuters. Data released at the same time showed Japan's adjusted jobless rate at 3.6 % in March, unchanged from February, while the availability of jobs hit their highest level in nearly seven years. (CNBC)

China's Services Growth Accelerates In April. Growth in China's services sector accelerated slightly in April as new orders held steady, an official survey showed, an encouraging sign of strength in an economy that otherwise faces a cloudy outlook. The purchasing manufacturing index (PMI) for the services industry edged up to 54.8 last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, up marginally from 54.5 in March. A reading above 50 in PMI surveys indicates growth on a monthly basis, while a number below that threshold points to a contraction in activity. (Reuters)

China Slowdown Weighs On Indonesia’s Export Outlook, Basri Says. China’s economic slowdown is weighing on the outlook for Indonesia’s exports even as the Southeast Asian nation’s trade balance improves, Finance Minister Chatib Basri said. “What we need to watch carefully is the slowdown in China,” Basri said May 2 in an interview with Bloomberg News. The slower pace of growth in Asia’s largest economy is the biggest concern for Indonesia’s exports this year, he said. The economy probably grew 5.7 % to 5.8 % in the first quarter, Basri said, adding that he didn’t “expect GDP will go beyond 6%” this year. (Bloomberg)

USA

US Economy Records Bumper Jobs Growth In April. The US economy created 288,000 jobs in April, the strongest monthly job creation since January 2012. The largest jobs gain came in professional and business services, which added 75,000 jobs during the month. The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, according to the latest figures from the US Labor Department. However, economists caution that figure was flattered by a sharp decline in the size of the labour force. Nevertheless it is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2008. (BBC)

Workforce Participation At 36-Year Low As Jobs Climb. Even the strongest job growth in two years isn’t enough to entice more people into the labor force, one of the biggest conundrums of the U.S. economic expansion. The share of the working-age population either employed or seeking a job declined in April for the first time this year, helping drive the unemployment rate down to 6.3 %, the lowest since September 2008, Labor Department figures showed yesterday. (Bloomberg)

Factory Orders Rise 1.1% In March, Versus Up 1.5% Estimate. New orders for U.S. factory goods rose for a second straight month in March, suggesting strength in manufacturing and the broader economy at the end of the first quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday new orders for manufactured goods increased 1.1 %. February's orders were revised to show a 1.5 % rise instead of the previously reported 1.6 % gain. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new orders received by factories advancing 1.4 % in March. (Reuters)

Europe

Portugal Needs No More Loans, Says PM Passos Coelho. Portugal's prime minister has said the country will exit its three-year 78bn euros bailout on 17 May without needing a standby line of credit. The loan had been granted in May 2011 by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Since then Portugal has stuck to the tough measures required by the bailout. "The government had decided to exit the assistance programme without turning to any kind of precautionary programme," Passos Coelho told national television. The decision was the "best for the interests of Portugal" after the country "regained its credibility," he added. (BBC)

Eurozone Unemployment Numbers Fall In March. Eurozone unemployment numbers have fallen slightly to 19.81 million, according to EU figures for March. Unemployment for the area is down from 19.84 million in February. The unemployment rate has remained at a steady 11.8% since December 2013, but numbers of unemployed in the area have gradually fallen since January. Austria had the lowest rate of unemployment, at 4.9%, while the country with the highest unemployment rate for March was Spain, at 25.3% unemployment. However, the most recently available figures for Greece put unemployment at 26.7% for January. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Sheds Yen Gain As Ukraine Outweighs Jobs Data. The dollar gave up its gain against the yen Friday as the conflict in eastern Ukraine overshadowed U.S. employment data providing strong evidence that a labor-market recovery is underway. The dollar gave up earlier gains to trade at ¥102.22, down from ¥102.30 late Thursday. The ICE dollar index, a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other currencies, moved down to 79.510 from 79.524 late Thursday. The pound fell to $1.6871 from $1.6890 late Thursday. The euro was at $1.3872 versus $1.3866. The Australian dollar inched down to 92.67 U.S. cents from 92.73 U.S. cents late Thursday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Logs First Gain In 3 Sessions, But Falls On Week. Oil futures settled higher on Friday as an unexpectedly strong jump in April nonfarm payrolls helped boost the prospects for energy demand, and reports of Russia’s call for an emergency United Nations Security Council meeting renewed concerns over global crude supplies. Crude oil for June delivery tacked on 34 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $99.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after briefly topping $100 in the immediate wake of the jobs report and then again as reports of Russia’s request for the U.N. meeting to discuss Ukraine emerged. For the week, however, prices fell 0.8%, weighed down in large part due to hefty U.S. crude stockpiles. June Brent crude, the European benchmark, rose 83 cents, or 0.8%, to $108.59 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange, down about 0.9% for the week. (Market Watch)

Gold Up 1.4 Pct On Ukraine, US Jobs Data Has Mixed Impact. Gold rose more than 1 % on Friday, its biggest daily gain in two months, as rising geopolitical tensions and heavy short-covering helped bullion reverse an initial sharp selloff after mixed U.S. job data. Spot gold was up 1.4 % at $1,300.90 an ounce by 2:23 p.m. EDT (1823 GMT), after rising to $1,304.90. Silver outperformed gold, rising 2.6 % to $19.49 an ounce. Platinum rose 1.1 % to $1,433.75, while palladium eased 0.1 % to $808.97. (Reuters)

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