Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 19 May 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 19 May 2014, 09:34 AM

Malaysia

The 1Q14 GDP Surpassed Estimates, Gained 6.2% YoY following the previous quarter’s 5.1%. This better-than-expected growth can be attributed to an almost overwhelming rebound in net exports, despite the rather moderate global growth in the 1Q14. Additional public sector spending also helped mitigate moderation from private sector spending, which has had to undergo some penny pinching in light of higher costs. However, private investment remains strong, pivoting overall aggregate demand to 7.4% from 6.7%. Despite the stronger-than-expected annual rise, the quarterly comparison saw a 3.9% QoQ fall in overall growth, a rather significant decline from the 3.0% rise in the 4Q13. However, this is an expected turnabout as the first quarter of the year has historically been the weakest quarter of any given year. For a more accurate indication, the QoQ seasonally adjusted basis GDP posted a 0.8% growth, a more moderate pace compared to 1.9% seen in the last quarter of 2013. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

April Vehicle Sales Rise 12% On New Launches. Total vehicle sales rose 12% in April to 58,732 from 52,489 units a year earlier due to new model launches during the month. The higher figure was a result of last April’s lower sales base, as customers held back their purchases due to the upcoming general elections then,” Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) said in a statement yesterday. Year-to-date April 2014, total vehicle sales rose 4% to 218,642 from 210,223 units before. Total vehicle production in April was up 12.5% to 57,086 from 50,727 a year earlier. (The Star)

Asia

China's Jan-April FDI Up 5% On-Year. China drew US$40.3bil in foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first four months of 2014, up 5% from a year earlier, with the lion's share going to the services industry, the Commerce Ministry said on Friday. In April alone, China attracted US$8.7bil in FDI, up 3.4% from a year ago. But reflecting uncertainty over the global economy, China's non-financial direct outbound investment fell 12.9% to US$25.7bil in the first four months. The services sector attracted US$22.5bil in investment in the four months, up 19.1% year-on-year, while investment inflows into the manufacturing sector dropped 11.4% to US$14.5bil. (Reuters)

China Home-Price Growth Slowdown Spreads As Developers Discount. China’s new-home prices rose in April in the fewest cities in a year and a half as developers offered discounts and the economy slowed, prompting the easing of property curbs in some places. Prices last month climbed in 44 of the 70 cities tracked by the government compared with 56 cities in March. That was the fewest cities with price gains since October 2012 when increases were recorded in only 35 on a monthly basis. (Bloomberg)

USA

US Consumer Sentiment Slips In May, Focus On Wages. A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell in May as a gloomy view on income growth clouded an otherwise positive economic outlook, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 81.8, down from 84.1 the month before. It was also below the expectation of 84.5 among economists polled by Reuters. "The main concern behind the small May loss involved dispiriting trends in wages," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement, as the median gain in household income for the next year was seen below inflation expectations. However, Curtin said, "consumers judged the current state of the economy at the most favorable levels in ten years. (Reuters)

Housing Starts, Building Permits Vault Higher, Offer Hope For Housing. U.S. housing starts jumped in April and building permits hit their highest level in nearly six years, offering hope that the troubled housing market could be stabilizing. The Commerce Department said on Friday groundbreaking increased 13.2 % to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.07 million units, the highest level since November 2013. Starts rose by a revised 2.0 % in March. They had previously been reported to have gained 2.8 %. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts rising to a 980,000-unit rate last month. (Reuters)

Europe

European Union Car Sales Rise 4.6% In April. Sales of new cars in the European Union (EU) rose 4.6% in April compared with the same month a year earlier figures have shown. The European Automobile Manufacturer's Association (ACEA) said demand for new cars within the EU rose for the eighth month in a row. Discounts, government incentives and sales of cars marketed as "nearly new" propped up the figures, analysts said. Car sales were strongest in Spain, which saw a 28.7% year-on-year rise. That helped offset a 3.6% fall in new car sales in Germany. Sales also rose 1.9% in Italy, 5.8% in France and 8.2% in Britain. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Down Vs. Pound Amid Low-Rate Pledges. The dollar fell against the British pound Friday as investors struggled to get a sense of when major central banks could begin to raise interest rates. The pound rose to $1.6822 from $1.6791 late Thursday, but posted a weekly loss of about 0.2% against the dollar. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, was at 80.042 versus 80.032 late Thursday. The dollar index is heavily weighted toward the euro, which fell to $1.3701 from $1.3712 in the prior session. The euro has shed 0.4% this week. The dollar was at 101.53 Japanese yen versus ¥101.57 late Thursday, posting a weekly loss of 0.3%. The Australian dollar was stuck near priorday ranges, trading at 93.66 U.S. cents versus 93.57 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Crude Rises 1.8 Pct On Week, Libya Supply Squeezed. Brent crude oil rose on Friday to end nearly 2 % higher on the week, boosted by concerns over output in Libya, where recently opened fields were closed again and clashes erupted in the east. Brent crude settled 66 cents higher at $109.75 a barrel, ending the week 1.8 % higher. U.S. crude settled 52 cents higher, or 0.51 %, at $102.02 a barrel, or 2 % higher than last week. (Reuters)

Gold Drops On Bright U.S. Data; Platinum Posts Weekly Gain. Gold fell on Friday as encouraging U.S. housing data weighed on its appeal as a hedge against economic weakness, while platinum notched its biggest weekly gain in a month and a half as strikes in South Africa continued. Spot gold fell 0.3 % to $1,292.06 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. EDT (1922 GMT). Platinum was down 0.2 % at $1,459.99 an ounce, while palladium climbed 0.4 % to $812.50 an ounce but held near its 2-1/2-year peak of $827.50 set earlier in the week. Spot silver fell 0.9 % to $19.29 an ounce. (Reuters)

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