Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 20 May 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 20 May 2014, 10:04 AM

Asia

Ongoing Political Conflict Slows Down Thai Economy. Thailand's economy shrank in the first quarter of the year as the political struggle affected businesses at home and deterred foreign investors. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 2.1% in the three months to March compared with the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the Thai economy shrank by 0.6%. A combination of falling investment, lower exports and a drop in household consumption affected the economy. (BBC)

Japan Investment Solid As Machine Orders Jump Most Since ’96. Japan’s core machinery orders jumped the most since 1996 in March, pointing to a continued recovery in business investment that could help drive growth. Orders rose 19.1% from a month earlier, excluding ships and from electrical power companies, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo today, more than an median 5.8 % increase forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Companies forecast orders to rise 0.4 % in April to June, a fifth straight quarter of gains. (Bloomberg)

China Home-Price Growth Slowdown Spreads On Discounting. China’s new-home prices rose in April in the fewest cities in a year and a half as developers offered discounts and the economy slowed, prompting the easing of property curbs in some places. Prices last month climbed in 44 of the 70 cities tracked by the government compared with 56 in March. That was the fewest metropolitan areas with price gains since October 2012 when increases were recorded in only 35 on a monthly basis. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Irish Debt Upgraded By Moody's Rating Agency Moody's. The credit rating agency Moody's has improved its outlook for Ireland's debt, grading the country as "stable". Analysts raised their rating by two notches, from Baa3, to Baa1, citing Ireland's improved growth. Until recently, Moody's classed Ireland's debt as "junk". At the height of the eurozone debt crisis, Ireland was forced to accept a 67bn euro (£57bn) lifeline from European authorities and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It left the bailout programme in December last year. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Falls As Investors Look To Fed Speakers. The dollar was stuck in tight ranges against major rivals on Monday as investors struggled to get a better sense of how the Fed views the current pace of economic growth. The dollar traded at ¥101.41 versus ¥101.53 late Friday, rebounding from its intraday low of ¥101.11. The ICE dollar index , a gauge of the greenback’s strength against six other currencies, was at 80.005 versus 80.042 late Friday. The euro inched up to $1.3710 from $1.3701 late Friday. The British pound was little-changed from $1.6822 late Friday. The European Parliament elections begin Thursday in the U.K. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to 93.27 U.S. cents from 93.66 U.S. cents late in the prior session. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Prices Rally On Weak Dollar, Contract Expiration. U.S. oil prices rose to near one-month highs on Monday as a weak dollar prompted buying a day before the June contract's expiration, while Brent prices fell as slumping global equities outweighed the impact of low Libyan output. U.S. crude for June delivery settled 59 cents up at $102.61 a barrel, its highest settlement since April 22, on light trading volume ahead of its expiration on Tuesday. The July contract settled 53 cents higher at $102.11 a barrel. Brent crude settled 38 cents lower at $109.37 a barrel, having climbed to an earlier intrasession high of $110.33 a barrel on the violence in Libya. (Reuters)

European Central Banks Renew Gold Agreement. A group of 21 European central banks says they have no plans to sell “significant” amounts of gold over the next five years. In a joint statement, the central banks of the 18 eurozone nations, the European Central Bank and the central banks of Switzerland and Sweden said: “Gold remains an important element of global monetary reserves. The signatories will continue to coordinate their gold transactions so as to avoid market disturbances. “The signatories note that, currently, they do not have any plans to sell significant amounts of gold.” The new five-year agreement replaces a similar pact between central banks that expires on Sept 27, 2014. The previous deal, agreed in August 2009, committed the central banks to sell no more than 400 tonnes per year and no more than 2,000 tonnes in the five-year period. (AFP)

Gold Ends Flat As S&P 500 Rises; Platinum Up. Gold erased initial gains to end flat on Monday as rising U.S. equities decreased bullion's appeal as a hedge, sending the metal below the key $1,300-an-ounce level. Spot gold rose 0.1 % to $1,293.86 an ounce by 2:01 p.m. EDT (1801 GMT), after two consecutive sessions of losses. Silver was up 0.4 % to $19.34 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.3 % to $1,462.40 an ounce, while palladium was up 10 cents at $812.30 an ounce. (Reuters)

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