Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 22 May 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 22 May 2014, 09:56 AM

Malaysia

Inflation In March Tapered Somewhat, To 3.4% YoY following a 3.5% increase in March. The market had estimated a rise of 3.5%. This is on account of lower food prices, though from the core inflation (minus food and beverages), which remained at 3.3%, overall prices still remain elevated. For the first four months of the year, CPI averaged at 3.5%, compared to 1.6% seen in the same period in 2013. On a monthly comparison, there were no changes in the CPI rate. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

Asia

BOJ Refrains From Easing With Signs Japan Weathering Tax Rise. Japan’s central bank refrained from boosting stimulus and raised its view of business investment as the economy shows signs of weathering the impact of the first salestax increase since 1997. The Bank of Japan will continue to expand the monetary base at a pace of 60 trillion yen to 70 trillion yen ($691 billion) per year, it said in a statement today in Tokyo, in line with forecasts of all 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. While an economic contraction is projected for this quarter, companies’ plans to boost investment are adding to signs that growth may bounce back. (Bloomberg)

Japan Export Growth Remains Tepid, Dims Outlook. Japan's exports rose for the 14th straight month in April but shipments to the US slowed, underlining concerns that the world's third largest economy remains vulnerable to any fall in external demand. Ministry of Finance data released on Wednesday showed exports rose 5.1% in the year to April, compared with a 4.8% gain seen by economists and a 1.8% rise in March. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose a meagre 0.6% in April from the previous month. (Reuters)

USA

Federal Reserve Weighs Options For Interest Rate Rise. The US Federal Reserve has begun discussions on how it will raise short-term interest rates, minutes from the central bank's April meeting reveal. The Fed has kept its target rate at 0% since 2008, when it slashed rates in an effort to stimulate the economy and combat the recession. However, members cautioned during the meeting that a discussion did not signal a rate rise was imminent. Most observers expect a rate rise in the latter half of 2015. (BBC)

Europe

UK Retail Sales Growth Hits A 10 Year High In April. UK retail sales grew by 6.9% in April compared with the same month a year earlier, new figures show, making it the strongest annual rise in ten years. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also said retail sales jumped by 1.3% between March and April beating analysts forecasts for a 0.5% rise. Food sales during the late Easter holiday made a significant contribution to the overall figure, the ONS said. They were 6.3% higher in April against a year earlier, and 3.6% up on March. Non-food sales rose by 6.5% compared with a year earlier, but were down 0.4% on the month. (BBC)

Currencies

Pound Flirts With $1.69; Dollar Up Vs. Yen, Euro. The dollar fell against the British pound Wednesday after minutes from the Bank of England and Federal Reserve latest meetings showed both central banks are examining ways to eventually tighten monetary policy, with expectations still for the U.K. bank to make the first move. The pound rose to $1.6899 from $1.6842 late Tuesday. The dollar rose to 101.44 yen from ¥101.29 late Tuesday, reversing an earlier loss. The ICE dollar index, a measure of the currency’s strength against six rivals, rose to 80.086 from 80.036 late in the prior session. The euro fell to $1.3683 from $1.3703 late Tuesday. The Australian dollar moved down to 92.34 U.S. cents from 92.51 U.S. cents late Tuesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Russia Signs 30-Year Gas Deal With China. Russia's President Vladimir Putin has signed a multi-billion dollar, 30-year gas deal with China. The deal between Russia's Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) has been 10 years in the making. Russia has been keen to find an alternative energy market for its gas as it faces the possibility of European sanctions over the crisis in Ukraine. No official price has been given but it is estimated to be worth over $400bn. President Putin said in a statement to the Russian news channel Rossiya: "The price is satisfactory for both sides. (BBC)

U.S. Oil Hits Two-Month High On Inventory Drop. U.S. oil reached a one-month high on Wednesday, rising nearly $2 a barrel, after the government reported a large draw in commercial crude stocks, while renewed fighting in Libya that kept output low boosted Brent prices. Brent crude settled 86 cents up at $110.555 a barrel. U.S. crude rose by as much as $1.96 to touch an intra-session high of $104.29 a barrel. It settled up $1.74 at $104.07 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Stays Lower After Fed; Platinum Group Metals Rise. Gold fell on Wednesday as the dollar climbed and equities maintained gains after minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed the central bank began to lay groundwork for an eventual retreat from stimulus but no final decisions were taken. Spot gold was down 0.2 % at $1,290.84 an ounce by 3:03 p.m. EDT (1903 GMT). Spot silver edged up 0.1 % to $19.38 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.6 % to $1,470.50 an ounce, not far from a two-month high of $1,483.50 hit last week, while palladium was up 0.4 % at $827.30 an ounce, having touched its highest level since August 2011 at $832.70 in earlier trade. 3:03 PM. (Reuters)

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