Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 23 May 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 23 May 2014, 09:49 AM

Asia

Thai Army Stages Coup After Six-Month Political Stalemate. Thailand’s army chief took control of the country and suspended the constitution after a six-month crisis that has sapped economic growth and caused political paralysis, staging the military’s 12th coup since 1932. Two days after declaring martial law and saying there was no coup, Army Chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha announced on national television alongside senior military officials yesterday that he was seizing control to restore peace. He announced a daily nationwide curfew from 10 p.m. until 5 a.m. and banned political protests. The coup came days after the state planning agency reported gross domestic product shrank 0.6 % in the three months through March from a year earlier, as production and tourism took a hit during months of unrest. (Bloomberg)

China, Japan Factory Output Improves, But Still Contracting. China's factory sector turned in its best performance this year in May but still contracted for the fifth straight month, a survey showed on Thursday, with divergent signals on exports and jobs pointing to an uncertain outlook for the economy. A similar survey showed Japanese factories had contracted slightly in May but at a slower pace than in April, suggesting some recovery from the impact a sales tax increase last month. The HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.7 in May from a final reading of 48.1 in April to be at its highest since December. The first reading of China's economy in May was much stronger than the median forecast of 48.1 in a Reuters' poll, but, hovering just below the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction, it showed a slight drop in business. The Markit/JMMA flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 49.9 in May from a April's final reading of 49.4. (Reuters)

USA

Initial Jobless Claims In U.S. Rose More Than Forecast. More Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing uneven progress in the labor market. Jobless claims increased by 28,000 to 326,000 in the week ended May 17, after 298,000 filings a week earlier that were higher than initially reported, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a rise to 310,000. Continuing claims fell to the lowest since December 2007. (Bloomberg)

Gain In U.S. Leading Index Points To Second-Quarter Rebound. The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in April for the fourth straight month, showing the economy will strengthen after a slowdown earlier this year. The Conference Board’s index, a gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months, rose 0.4 % after a revised 1.0 % gain in March that was larger than previously reported, the New York-based group said today. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an advance of 0.4 %. (Bloomberg)

Gain In Existing U.S. Home Sales Lifts Spring Prospects. Previously owned U.S. home purchases increased in April as a bigger supply of properties lured buyers and raised prospects for a stronger spring buying season. The 1.3 % gain, the first this year, pushed sales to a 4.65 million annualized rate, National Association of Realtors data showed today. The number of available properties climbed to an almost two-year high, helping slow the pace of price appreciation. (Bloomberg)

Europe

UK Economic Growth Confirmed At 0.8%. The UK economy grew by 0.8% in the first three months of 2014, official figures have confirmed, as households spent more and firms lifted investment. he latest figures confirm the initial estimatefrom the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and also confirm the economy grew 3.1% from a year earlier. The UK is now one of the fastest growing western economies. Separate figures showed that public sector borrowing in April rose by nearly 2% to £11.5bn. (BBC)

Eurozone Businesses Maintain Steady Growth. Business activity in the eurozone kept up a steady pace of growth in May, a survey has indicated, despite the pace of expansion slowing slightly. he latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from research firm Markit dipped to 53.9, down from 54.0 in April. A figure above 50 indicates expansion. However, the data suggested that the fortunes of businesses in France and Germany continue to diverge. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Index Rises To Nearly Seven-Week High. The dollar rose Thursday, with a broad gauge of the currency’s strength hitting its highest level in nearly seven weeks, as investors sifted through U.S. economic data that included a strong reading on manufacturing. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 80.226 from 80.086 late Wednesday. The dollar rose to 101.73 yen from ¥101.44 late Wednesday. The euro fell to $1.3654 from $1.3683 late Wednesday. The British pound declined to $1.6869 from $1.6899 in the prior session. The Australian dollar was at 92.24 U.S. cents versus 92.34 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Slips From 2-1/2 Month High On Profit Taking. Global oil prices slid lower on Thursday after Brent touched a 2-1/2 month high and traders took profit on a rally that was driven by ongoing violence in Libya and positive economic data in China and the United States. Brent crude settled 19 cents lower, after touching a session high of $111.04, the highest price since March 4. U.S. crude fell 33 cents to 103.74 a barrel, after settling up $1.74 on Wednesday, its biggest one-day gain in six weeks. (Reuters)

Gold Gains On U.S. Fed Outlook, Checked By Fund Outflows. The price of gold rose on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated no intention to raise interest rates soon, but a drop in holdings of the top bullion-backed fund to a five-year low kept gains in check. Spot gold rose 0.5 % to $1,297.60 an ounce by 1201 GMT, after closing between $1,291 and $1,296 for the past five trading sessions. Among other precious metals, platinum added to gains on supply fears as strikes in major producer South Africa dragged on for a 17th week. It rose 1.1 % to $1,481.00 an ounce, below a two-month high of $1,483.50 hit last week. Palladium rose 0.8 % to $830.10 an ounce after climbing to a 2-1/2-year high in earlier trade. Spot silver rose 0.7 % to $19.52 an ounce. (Reuters)

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