Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 26 May 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 26 May 2014, 09:40 AM

Asia

Thailand’s Military Names Economic Minister As Calm Holds. The military announced yesterday who would be in charge of running various parts of the government in the near term, including naming Air Chief Marshal Prajin Juntong to head economic ministries including finance, commerce, industry and energy. Military officials are taking charge of an economy that shrank 0.6 % in the first quarter as six months of political unrest crimped consumer spending and slowed growth in industrial production and tourism. Prayuth is expected to remain in the role of prime minister for the immediate future, the Bangkok Post reported today, citing an unidentified person close to the coup leaders. (Bloomberg)

BOJ's Kuroda Says Options Remain If Further Easing Needed. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank still has policy options left if it were to ease monetary policy further to fend off risks that may threaten the achievement of its price target. Kuroda repeated his view that the world's third-largest economy is making steady progress toward meeting the BOJ's 2 % price target, with core consumer inflation having reached 1.3 % for four straight months in March. "But we are ready to adjust policy, be it further monetary easing or something else, if changes in economic and financial developments derail the path toward meeting the price target," he said in an interview with the Nikkei business daily published on Saturday. (Reuters)

Americas

U.S. Home Sales Come Out Of Deep Freeze. Sales of new U.S. homes climbed in April for the first time in three months, allaying concerns of an extended setback in the residential real-estate market. The 6.4 % increase to a 433,000 annualized rate was the biggest in six months and followed a 6.9 % March decline, Commerce Department data showed today in Washington. The advance was spurred by a surge in demand in the Midwest. (Bloomberg)

Canada Inflation Hits Poloz Goal For First Time In 2 Yrs. Canada’s inflation rate quickened in April to reach the central bank’s target for the first time in two years, led by higher energy costs that Governor Stephen Poloz says he will disregard. The consumer price index rose 2 % in April from a year ago following March’s 1.5 % pace, as energy prices jumped 8.4%, Statistics Canada said today from Ottawa. The core rate, which excludes eight volatile products, climbed 1.4 % after a prior gain of 1.3 %. Both increases matched the median forecasts in Bloomberg News surveys. (Bloomberg)

Mexico Cuts 2014 GDP Forecast To 2.7% As 1Q Disappoints. Mexico’s government cut its 2014 growth forecast after the economy recovered less than analysts estimated in the first quarter, held back by weak export demand and a tax increase that sapped consumer confidence. The economy will expand 2.7 %, down from a previous forecast of 3.9 %, the Finance Ministry said today after the statistics agency reported first-quarter growth of 1.8 %, compared with expansion of 0.7 % in the fourth quarter. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for first-quarter growth of 2.1 %. Gross domestic product rose 0.3 % from the previous quarter. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Spain With Greece Win Higher Debt Ratings On Growth Outlook. Spain’s credit rank was raised by Standard & Poor’s, while Fitch Ratings increased Greece’s grade, as the economic outlooks improve for countries that were at the heart of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis. S&P lifted Spain’s long-term rating one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade. Fitch boosted Greece’s long-term rank one step to B, it said in a statement. The new level is five steps below investment grade. (Bloomberg)

Denmark Raises 2015 GDP Estimate As Consumer Spending Improves. Denmark’s government raised its forecast for economic growth next year amid signs that consumers are growing more confident. Gross domestic product will expand 2% in 2015, versus a December forecast for 1.9 %, the Copenhagen-based Economy Ministry said in a statement obtained on by Bloomberg yesterday. Consumer spending will grow 2 %, more than the 1.6 % the ministry estimated earlier. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Gains Against Euro For Third Straight Week. The dollar rose Friday, notching weekly gains against the euro, yen and Australian dollar. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 80.374 from 80.226 late Thursday. The euro fell to $1.3630 from $1.3654 late Thursday, for a weekly loss of 0.5%. In other trade, the British pound fell to $1.6826 from $1.6869 late Thursday, but still gained 0.1% for the week. The dollar rose to 101.97 yen from ¥101.73. For the week, the dollar is up 0.4% against the yen. The Australian dollar traded at 92.32 U.S. cents versus 92.24 U.S. cents late Thursday, for a weekly loss of 1.4%. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent, U.S. Crude Push Higher On Geopolitical Worries. Brent and U.S. crude futures pushed higher on Friday, supported by the crises in Ukraine and Libya as well as positive economic data in the world's top two oil consumers, the United States and China. Brent July crude rose 18 cents to settle at $110.54 a barrel, having swung from $110.25 to $110.67. Brent posted a 0.5 % weekly gain, after rising nearly 2 % the previous week, and Thursday's $111.04 intraday peak was the highest since March 4. U.S. July crude rose 61 cents to settle at $104.35 a barrel, up 2.3 % for the week. (Reuters)

Palladium Falls On Profit Taking, Stronger Dollar; Gold Flat. Palladium fell on Friday as investors took some profits after hitting 2-1/2-year highs a day earlier and the dollar firmed, even as concerns remained about supplies as strikes in major producer South Africa drag on. Palladium shed 0.73 % to $833.30 an ounce at 4:01 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT) as the dollar gained against the euro, making dollar-priced commodities more expensive for Europeans. Palladium was set to notch up its best weekly performance since early April with a 1.9-% gain this week, and platinum was up 0.7 %, the second straight weekly rise. Spot gold dipped 0.09 % to $1,293.16 an ounce and was headed for a largely flat week. Spot silver slipped 0.21 % to $19.46 an ounce. (Reuters)

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