Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 29 May 2014

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Publish date: Thu, 29 May 2014, 09:46 AM

Asia

Weak April Export, Output Data For Thailand. Thailand’s trade shrank in April and factory output fell for a 13th straight month, underscoring the damage political unrest has caused and the tough job the new military government faces reviving an economy that contracted in the first quarter. Based on the April data released yesterday – which included a 0.9% fall in exports from a year earlier. Imports fell 14.5% from a year earlier, according to the Commerce Ministry, less than the 18.2% drop projected in a Reuters poll. But imports remained weak and many of Thailand’s imports go into finished goods later exported. For April exports, the poll forecast a 0.5% increase. Thailand had a trade surplus in March, but April brought a US$1.45bil deficit, more than twice the forecast. Industrial output in April was 3.9% lower than a year earlier, the Industry Ministry said. That compared with March’s revised drop of 10.5% and a 6.4% decline seen in a Reuters poll. (Reuters)

China April Industrial Profits Up 9.6% On-Year. Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms rose 9.6% in April to 468.6 billion yuan (US$75bil) from a year earlier, slower than the annual growth of 10.7% in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. For the first four months of 2014, profits rose 10% to 1.8 trillion yuan, little changed from the 10.1% for the first quarter. Analysts see initial signs of stabilisation in the Chinese economy due to the government's targeted measures to underpin growth, but believe more policy support may be needed as structural reforms put additional pressure on activity. (Reuters)

USA

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall In Latest Week. Applications for U.S. home mortgages fell last week as both purchase and refinancing applications declined, an industry group said on Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, fell 1.2 % in the week ended May 23. The MBA's seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications fell 1.4 %, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases, a leading indicator of home sales, slipped 1.1 %. (Reuters)

Europe

Euro-Area Economic Confidence Climbs More Than Expected In May. Economic confidence in the 18-nation euro area increased more than forecast in May, as the European Central Bank considers taking action next month to avert the risk of deflation and spur growth. An index of executive and consumer sentiment rose to 102.7 from 102 in April, the European Commission in Brussels said today. That beat the median estimate of 102.2 in a Bloomberg News survey of 29 economists.(Bloomberg)

Eurozone Loans Still Contracting. Loans to the private sector in the eurozone – a gauge of economic health – are still contracting, but at a slower rate than before, European Central Bank (ECB) data showed. The volume of loans to private businesses and households declined by 1.8% in April, after falling by 2.2% the previous month, the ECB said in a statement yesterday. The data appear to confirm a tentative recovery slowly emerging in credit demand in the 18 countries which share the euro, where the long and deep financial crisis caused credit to dry up almost completely. (AFP)

German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises As Growth To Slow. German unemployment unexpectedly increased for the first time in six months amid signs of a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy that could weigh on the fragile euro-area recovery. The number of people out of work rose a seasonally adjusted 23,937 to 2.905 million in May, the Nuremberg based Federal Labor Agency said today. Economists forecast a decline of 15,000, according to the median of 31 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The adjusted jobless rate was unchanged at 6.7 %, the lowest level in more than two decades. (Bloomberg)

French Jobless Total Hits New High In April. The number of people without a job in France rose by 14,800 in April to a new record, undermining President Francois Hollande's campaign to bring unemployment down. Labour ministry data on Wednesday showed that the number of people registered out of work reached 3,364,100 in mainland France, an increase 0.4 % over one month and 3.5 % over one year. (Reuters)

Spanish Mortgage Lending Rises For First Time In Four Years. Spanish home mortgage approvals rose in March for the first time in almost four years, adding to signs that the property market is stabilizing six years after triggering the worst recession in the country’s democratic history. The number of residential loan approvals rose 2 % from a year earlier, the first increase since April 2010, the Madrid-based National Statistics Institute said today. The total amount lent rose by 16%, its first gain since 2007. House prices in the country fell 3.5 % from a year ago in the first quarter, the smallest decline in over three years, separate data from the Public Works Ministry showed. (Bloomberg)

Swiss Economy Grows Faster Than Euro Area’s On High Exports. Switzerland’s economy outpaced that of the neighboring euro area in the first quarter, with growth in exports and in the construction sector offsetting weaker household consumption. Swiss gross domestic product rose 0.5 % in the three months through March from the previous quarter, when it expanded 0.2 %, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs in Bern said in a statement today. That compares with a median estimate of 0.6 % median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 18 economists. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Euro Falls Below $1.36 As ECB Action Seems Likely. The dollar rose against the euro Wednesday after weak euro-zone data added to expectations that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy next month. The euro fell to $1.3594 from $1.3635 late Tuesday. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 80.563 from 80.346 late Tuesday. The dollar traded at 101.84 Japanese yen versus ¥101.96 late in the prior session. In other action, the British pound was little changed at $1.6713 versus $1.6812 late Tuesday. The Australian dollar fell to 92.32 U.S. cents from 92.62 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Above $110 As U.S. Data Boosts Growth Prospects. Brent futures rose on Wednesday, holding above $110 a barrel on renewed optimism over steady demand growth in the world's top oil consumer the United States, following healthy economic data, with supply disruption concerns providing additional support. Brent crude gained 24 cents to $110.26 at 0631 GMT after ending 30 cents lower as some profits were booked following a long holiday weekend. U.S. oil gained 5 cents to $104.16 after losing 24 cents in the previous session. (Reuters)

Gold Drops To Near 4-Month Low As Dollar Up, Equities Firm. Gold prices fell to their lowest in nearly 4 months on Wednesday, extending the previous session's two-% sell-off, as the dollar rallied against the euro and stock markets held near recent record highs. Spot gold fell 0.4 % to $1,258.50 an ounce by 2:40 p.m. EDT (1840 GMT), having earlier hit $1,255.66, which marked its weakest since early February. Among other precious metals, silver ended flat, unchanged from Tuesday's close at $19.05. Platinum was down 0.5 % at $1,450.25 an ounce and palladium climbed 0.5 % to $834 an ounce. (Reuters)

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