Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 2 June 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 02 Jun 2014, 10:02 AM

Asia

Japan Inflation Rate Hits 23-Year High. Consumer prices in Japan rose at their fastest pace in 23 years in April, following an increases in sales tax. Prices rose 3.2% compared with the same period last year, beating analysts' forecasts of a 3.1%m jump. The government raised its sales tax rate from 5% to 8% on 1 April. Japan has been battling deflation, or falling prices, for best part of the past two decades, and policymakers have said that ending that cycle is key to reviving the country's economy. (BBC)

Japan April Household Spending Falls 4.6% Vs Year Ago. Japanese household spending fell more than expected in April, data showed on Friday, in a sign that a decline in consumer spending after a sales tax hike is worse than feared. The 4.6 % annual decrease exceeded the median market forecast for a 3.2 % annual decline. Spending declined 13.3 % in April from the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms as households spent an average 302,141 yen ($3,000), the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday. (Reuters)

Japan April Factory Output Down 2.5% Month-On-Month. Japanese industrial output fell 2.5 % in April, government data showed on Friday, as companies cut back on production after ramping it up to meet a rush in demand ahead of an increase in the national sales tax from April. The decrease was more than a median market forecast of a 2.0 % fall. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect output to rise 1.7 % in May and decline 2.0% in June. The ministry downgraded its assessment of output, saying it is flattening out as a trend. (Reuters)

China Manufacturing Gauge Rises To Five-Month High. China’s manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in five months, in a sign the government’s measures to counter an economic slowdown are gaining traction. The Purchasing Managers’Index rose to 50.8 in May, the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday in Beijing, compared with the 50.7 median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. April’s reading was 50.4, with numbers above 50 indicating expansion. (Bloomberg)

S. Korea May Exports Fall On China Slowdown, Holidays. South Korea exports last month suffered their worst decline in eight months as a drop in Chinese demand and the effect from fewer working days more than offset growing purchases by European and US customers. South Korea, the fourth largest economy in Asia, said yesterday that exports last month fell 0.9% from a year earlier to US$47.88bil, while imports rose 0.3% to US$42.53bil. It resulted in a trade surplus of US$5.35bil. Exports to China plunged 9% in May from a year before, setting the fastest drop in nearly five years and eclipsing a stellar 32% jump in sales to the European Union and a 4.5% rise in shipments to the United States. (Reuters)

India's Economic Growth Disappoints. India's economic growth has remained subdued, due largely to a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, official figures have shown. The economy grew at an annual rate of 4.6% between January and March, below analysts' forecasts and the same pace as the previous quarter. For the full 2013-14 financial year, growth was 4.7%, the second straight year of sub-5% expansion. New Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to boost growth. (BBC)

Americas

US Consumer Spending Dips For First Time In A Year As Prices Jump. U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in a year in April, but there are signs inflation is stirring, with an inflation gauge rising at its quickest pace since November 2012. The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending slipped 0.1 % after rising by a revised 1.0 % in March, which was the largest gain since August 2009. Even though demand cooled, inflation is creeping up. A price index for consumer spending increased 0.2 % last month after rising by the same margin in March. (Reuters)

US Consumer Sentiment Dips As Mood Darkens. A monthly gauge of U.S. consumer sentiment fell in May as a gloomy view on income growth clouded an otherwise positive economic outlook, a survey released on Friday showed. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 81.9, down from 84.1 the month before. It was also below the expectation of 82.5 among economists polled by Reuters. However it did show a slight increase from the preliminary reading issued on May 16. (Reuters)

Brazil Economy In Slowdown Ahead Of World Cup. Brazil's economy grew 0.2% in the first three months of 2014, official statistics show. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics also revised down economic growth in the last three months of 2013, to 0.4%. The sluggish growth figures come just before the start of the World Cup and presidential elections in October. President Dilma Rousseff, who is seeking re-election, has said the football event will spur growth. But high inflation and low business investment have put a damper on the expected lift from government investment in projects leading up to the sporting event. This has spurred protests from Brazilians angry over the expense of the World Cup and the lack of trickle-down growth. (BBC)  

Europe

Spain To Launch 6.3bn Euro Stimulus Package. Spain will unveil a new stimulus package worth 6.3bn euros ($8.6bn) next week, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has announced. He said the main rate of corporate tax would also be cut to 25% from 30%. The measures are designed specifically to boost the economy's competitiveness and to create jobs. The Spanish unemployment rate is running at almost 26%, with more than half of the workforce under 24 years of age out of work. "The plan will include investments totalling 6.3bn euros, of which 2.67bn will come from the private sector and 3.63bn from the public sector." (BBC)

Portugal's Supreme Court Knocks Down Austerity Measures. Portugal's supreme court has struck down several austerity measures proposed in the government's 2014 budget, including salary cuts in the public sector, creating a fiscal gap of 700 million euros. The court ruled against planned salary cuts of between 2 and 12 % in the public sector, undermining one of the key elements of spending cuts set out in the international bailout that Portugal exited this month. The court late on Friday also ruled out cuts in pensions, and sickness and unemployment benefits. It said the measures contravened the rights of citizens spelled out in the constitution. (Reuters)

IMF Board Approves $4.6 Bln In Aid For Greece. Greece is set to receive $4.64 billion from the International Monetary Fund after the institution's board on Friday signed off on the latest review of Greece's rescue package. The disbursement comes after the IMF and Greece's European lenders finished their review of Greece's progress under its 173 billion euro ($236 billion) bailout in March, ending six months of protracted negotiations. Greece last got an IMF aid disbursement in July 2013, of $2.3 billion. The IMF has so far lent Greece about $15.8 billion under a four-year program, meant to help Athens recover from a sovereign debt crisis, rebuild its economy and return to markets. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Notches Monthly Gains Against Euro, Pound. The dollar fell against the euro and British pound on Friday but notched monthly gains against both rivals in May. The pound moved up to $1.6762 from $1.6717, but fell 0.7% in May. The euro rose to $1.3635 from $1.3605 late Thursday, but dropped 1.7% for the month. The ICE dollar index , which pits the greenback against six rivals, fell to 80.379 from 80.491 late Thursday. In May, the index gained 1.1%. The dollar recouped earlier losses against the yen, trading at ¥101.77 versus ¥101.75 late Thursday. For the month, the dollar fell 0.45% against the yen. The Australian dollar was at 93.11 U.S. cents versus 93.04 U.S. cents, netting a monthly gain of 0.3% against its U.S. counterpart. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Down On Week The, Logs First Monthly Gain In Three. Oil futures settled lower on Friday to tally their biggest weekly loss in five weeks as traders continued to digest U.S. inventory data and gauge the outlook for energy demand against a backdrop of mixed economic data. July crude fell 87 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $102.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Tracking the most-active contracts, prices lost 1.6% for the week, but rose 3% on the month. In other energy trading, July Brent crude, the European benchmark, fell 56 cents, or 0.5%, to end at $109.41 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange, with the contract losing around 1% on the week, but gaining 1.8% on the month. (Market Watch)

Gold Falls To Near 4-Month Low; Posts Sharp Weekly Drop. Gold fell almost 1 % to a near four-month low on Friday, extending its losing streak a fourth consecutive day, weighed down by book squaring ahead of month end and selling by commodity funds. Spot gold was down 0.7 % at $1,247.10 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. EDT (1922 GMT), having earlier hit a low of $1,241.99, its lowest since early February. Among other precious metals, silver was down 1.3 % to $18.72 an ounce, while platinum fell 0.5 % to $1,446 an ounce, and palladium was up 0.3 % to $833.25. (Reuters)

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