Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 9 June 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 09 Jun 2014, 09:43 AM

Malaysia

Exports In April Rose By A Double-Digit Growth Of 18.9% YoY, on a surge of demand for E&E and mining goods from Asia, the USA and the EU. This outpaces the previous month’s growth of 8.4%. On a monthly comparison, exports increased by 2.2% whilst the seasonally adjusted term saw a 1.4% increase. Year-to-date saw a 12.8% expansion compared to a 2.9% fall seen in the same period in 2013. Imports on the hand expanded by 5.0%. On a month-on-month basis, imports expanded by 3.7%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, imports rose by 3.5% whilst the year-to-date saw an increase of 5.4% versus 7.1% in 2013. Despite better exports performance, trade surplus narrowed to RM8.9b from RM9.6b, whilst total trade increased by 12.0% annually, from 4.6% in the previous month. (Please refer to Economic Viewpoint for further comments)

Global

Emerging Markets Output Growth Hits Three-Month High In May. Business activity in emerging markets expanded at the fastest rate in three months in May, although growth was weak compared with developed markets and an index of future expectations hit a new low, a survey showed on Friday. HSBC's composite emerging markets index of manufacturing and services purchasing managers' surveys rose to 50.6 in May from 50.4 in April, but remained well below its long-run trend level of 53.8. "The reading of 50.6 in May compares with a developed world PMI equivalent of 55.4. While the former points to an ongoing languor that has plagued the emerging markets over the past year, the developed world has moved into a higher gear and is now enjoying its strongest growth for just over three years," Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said in a statement. (Reuters)

Asia

China's Trade Surplus Rises To $36bn In May. China's exports grew in May but a drop in imports signalled a possible weakening of demand in the world's second-largest economy. The country's exports rose by 7% in May compared with 12 months before. But imports fell by 1.6% on a year earlier. It meant the nation's trade surplus widened sharply to $35.9bn, from April's $18.5bn, the General Administration of Customs said. The figures will add to recent concern about the state of the Chinese economy. It has shown signs of weakness amid poor data from the manufacturing and retail sectors. (BBC)

IMF Urges China To Focus On Reforms, Target 7% Growth In 2015. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommended that China adopt an economic growth target of about 7 % for 2015 and urged authorities to avoid further stimulus measures and concentrate on curtailing financial risks instead. In remarks that projected confidence about the near-term health of the world's second-biggest economy, the IMF said Beijing must keep its word on implementing reforms that will correct imbalances, including a "moderately undervalued" yuan. Specifically, the fund said conditions are right for China to take the next step in freeing its interest rates market, challenging the view among some senior Chinese officials that the country is not yet ready for such a move. (Reuters)

First India-China Talks Since Modi Win Focus On Economic Ties. India and China focused on boosting economic ties in the first formal talks between the two countries holding more than a third of the world’s people since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took power in New Delhi last month. Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj met her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in India’s capital yesterday for more than three hours, Syed Akbaruddin, an Indian foreign ministry spokesman, told reporters in New Delhi. The top diplomats talked about increasing Chinese investment into Indian industrial parks, he said, without specifying if border issues or Tibet came up. (Bloomberg)

S’pore To Curb Foreign Workers, Accepts Slower Growth For Stability. Singapore is willing to accept slower growth as a trade-off for social stability as it aims to keep down the number of foreigners working in the city-state, Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam told Reuters. Over the past decade, Singapore's economy has expanded by a 6.4% annual average. But Tharman said that he would be happy if Singapore grew 3% a year, as long as growth was driven mainly by gains in productivity. "3% growth is good growth," he said during an interview. (Reuters)

Americas

Employment Reaches Milestone In Topping U.S. Pre-Recession Peak. The economic expansion in the U.S. reached a milestone in May with employment exceeding the pre-recession peak for the first time -- almost five years after the recovery began. The 217,000 advance in hiring followed a 282,000 gain in April, figures from the Labor Department showed yesterday in Washington. It marked the fourth consecutive month employment increased by more than 200,000, the first time that’s happened since early 2000. The jobless rate unexpectedly held at an almost six-year low of 6.3 %. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 92 economists projected payrolls would rise by 215,000. The employment report also showed average hourly earnings rose 0.2 % to $24.38 in May from $24.33 the prior month. They were up 2.1 % over the past 12 months. The employment report also showed average hourly earnings rose 0.2 % to $24.38 in May from $24.33 the prior month. They were up 2.1 % over the past 12 months. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Credit In U.S. Climbed More Than Forecast In April. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. rose more than projected in April as Americans boosted credit-card use by the most since November 2007. The $26.8 billion surge in tot credit exceeded the highest estimate in a Bloomberg survey and followed a revised $19.5 billion gain in March, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. Revolving lending, which includes credit cards, jumped $8.8 billion. (Bloomberg)

Mexico Central Bank Unexpectedly Cuts Rate To Spur Weak Economy. Mexico's central bank unexpectedly slashed interest rates to a record low on Friday, saying a sluggish economy gave it room for a one-off cut to spur growth without fanning inflation pressures. The Banco de Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 3.00 %, surprising 21 analysts who had unanimously forecast in a Reuters poll that rates would stay on hold. Latin America's No. 2 economy barely grew in the first quarter as a harsh winter dragged on growth in the United States, Mexico's top trading partner, while Mexican tax hikes hit domestic demand. (Reuters)

Europe

German Export Gains Point To Strong Q2. German exports rose at their strongest pace in nearly two years in April and industry output also edged higher, signalling a strong start to the second quarter in Europe's largest economy. Shipments abroad, which have traditionally propelled the German economy, struggled last year and fell in two out of three months in the first quarter. But data from the Federal Statistics Office on Friday showed that exports rebounded 3% in April, their biggest increase since May 2012. The trade surplus widened to €17.7bil, well above a consensus forecast for €15.2bil. Economists polled by Reuters had expected exports to climb by 1.5%. (Reuters)

UK Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected In April. The UK's trade deficit with the rest of the world widened by more than expected in April, because of weaker manufacturing exports, official data showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the UK's goods trade deficit grew to an estimated £9.6bn, from £8.3bn in March. But that was offset by a £7.1bn trade surplus in the UK's dominant services sector. That left an overall deficit of £2.5bn. (BBC)

Currencies

Dollar Posts Weekly Gain Against Yen. The U.S. dollar inched up against the Japanese yen Friday, notching a weekly gain, in the wake of data showing the U.S. economy added 217,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate remained at 6.3%. The dollar edged up to ¥102.52 from ¥102.43 late Thursday, for a 0.7% weekly gain. The euro fell to $1.3641 from $1.3664 late Thursday, after swinging between slight gains and losses in the wake of the employment data. The ICE dollar index , which pits the greenback against six rivals, was at 80.425 versus 80.350 late Thursday. The British pound inched down to $1.6808 from $1.6818 late Thursday, for a weekly gain of 0.3%. The Australian dollar traded at 93.34 versus 93.37 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

U.S. Oil Lifted By Solid Jobs Report. U.S. crude oil futures inched higher on Friday after a solid jobs report in the United States pointed to economic strength and growing oil demand in the world's largest oil consumer. U.S. crude gained 18 cents to settle at $102.66 a barrel after hitting a high of $103.07 shortly after the release of the jobs report. Brent crude oil futures, however, lost 18 cents to settle at $108.61 a barrel. (Reuters)

Gold Falls Slightly As U.S. Jobs Data Points To Steady Growth. Gold prices were slightly lower on Friday as the dollar rose after a closely watched monthly U.S. jobs report underscored expectations of a steady recovery in the world's No. 1 economy, while platinum group metals were buoyed by strikes. Spot gold was down 0.08 % at $1,252.26 an ounce at 3:17 p.m. EDT (1917 GMT), off an earlier low of $1,246.5, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled at $1,252.5 an ounce, down 0.06 %. Spot platinum touched fresh August 2011 highs of $844 per ounce and was up 0.5 % at $1,444 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 0.8 % at $842.00 an ounce, on track for its fourth straight week of gains. Spot silver was down 0.11 % at $18.98 an ounce, but the industrial metal put in its best week since mid-March. (Reuters)

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