Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 13 June 2014

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Publish date: Fri, 13 Jun 2014, 11:16 AM

Asia

Japan April Core Machinery Orders Fall 9.1 Pct. Japan's core machinery orders fell 9.1 % in April, pulling back after a record jump in the previous month, government data showed on Thursday. The month-on-month decline in core orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with the median estimate of an 11.9 % drop in a Reuters poll of economists. Compared with a year earlier, core orders, which exclude those of ships and electric power utilities, increased 17.6% in April. The Cabinet Office maintained its assessment on machinery orders, saying they are in a rising trend. (Reuters)

China Takes New Steps To Boost Growth. China has announced new measures aimed at bolstering its economic growth. These include plans to build railways, roads and airports along the Yangtze River - which connects China's less developed inland provinces to Shanghai. Meanwhile, China's central bank said it will encourage banks to lend more to exporters to boost shipments. The moves, the latest in a series of steps taken in recent weeks, come amid concerns over a slowdown in China's economy - the world's second-largest. China's economy expanded by 7.4% in the January-to-March period, from a year ago, down from 7.7% growth in the final quarter of last year. (BBC)

China’s New Loans Top Estimates In Boost For Economy. China’s new yuan loans and money supply topped estimates in May as the government supports economic growth while reining in shadow banking. Local-currency loans were 870.8 billion yuan ($140 billion), the People’s Bank of China said on its website yesterday, higher than 42 out of 43 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose 13.4 %, compared with a median projection for 13.1 %. (Bloomberg)

India Inflation Slows More Than Estimated In Boost For Modi. India’s consumer-price inflation slowed more than economists projected and factory output expanded in a boost for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government ahead of its first budget. Consumer prices rose 8.28 % in May from a year earlier, compared with 8.59 % in April, the Statistics Ministry said in New Delhi today. The median of 40 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for an 8.4 % gain. Industrial output rose 3.4 % in April, a separate report showed, compared with an estimated 1.9 % increase. (Bloomberg)

USA

Jobless Claims In U.S. Increased Last Week To 317,000. Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose to 317,000 last week, holding below this year’s average and signaling sustained progress in the labor market. Jobless claims climbed by 4,000 in the week ended June 7, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 310,000. Claims have averaged around 324,000 so far in 2014. (Bloomberg)

US Retail Sales Rise Less Than Expected In May. U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in May, but that probably will do little to change expectations of an acceleration in growth this quarter as data for the prior months was revised higher. The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales gained 0.3 % last month. Retail sales, which account for a third of consumer spending, rose by a revised 0.5 % in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales gaining 0.6 % after a previously reported 0.1 % rise in April. (Reuters)

U.S. Business Inventories Post Largest Increase In Six Months. U.S. business inventories recorded their biggest increase in six months in April and picked up excluding automobiles, supporting expectations of a sharp rebound in growth in the second quarter. The Commerce Department said on Thursday inventories increased 0.6 % in April after rising 0.4 % in March. The increase in April was the largest since October. Economists polled by Reuters had expected inventories, which are a key component of gross domestic product changes, to rise 0.4 % in April. Retail inventories, excluding auto, which go into the calculation of GDP, rose 0.2 %. Retail stocks excluding autos had edged up 0.1 % in March. (Reuters)

Europe

UK's Osborne Gives Bank Of England New Powers Over Mortgages. British finance minister George Osborne said on Thursday that he would give the Bank of England stronger powers to curb mortgage lending and reduce the risks that the housing market poses to financial stability. British house prices have risen by 11 % over the past year and are close to precrisis levels. The International Monetary Fund urged Britain last week to take steps to cool the housing market and reduce the risk of a bubble. (Reuters)

Currencies

Pound Spikes On Rate-Hike Talk. The U.S. dollar dropped against the pound Thursday after the head of the Bank of England said the first interest-rate hike in the U.K. could come sooner than currently expected. The pound surged to $1.6906 from $1.6791 late Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar rose to 86.97 U.S. cents from 86.11 U.S. cents late Wednesday, hitting the highest level since May 6. The ICE dollar index, which pits the dollar against six other currencies, fell to 80.563 versus 80.784 late Wednesday. The Australian dollar rose to 94.27 U.S. cents from 93.84 U.S. cents. The dollar fell to 101.65 from ¥102.04 late Wednesday. The euro moved up to $1.3557 from $1.3531 late Wednesday. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Prices At Nine-Month Highs Amid Iraq Violence. Oil prices jumped to nine-month highs on Thursday, as concerns mounted that escalating violence in Iraq could disrupt oil supplies from the second-largest OPEC producer. Brent futures gained $3.07 to settle at $113.02 a barrel, the highest level since Sept. 9. U.S. oil gained $2.13 to settle at $106.53 a barrel, also the highest close since Sept. 18, according to Reuters data. (Reuters)

Platinum, Palladium Sink As S. African Strike Nears End. Palladium posted its biggest daily losses in almost a year on Thursday after South African producers struck a deal with the union to end a crippling five-month strike, and violent conflict in Iraq burnished gold's safe haven status. Spot palladium fell almost 5 % to a three-week low of $814.70 an ounce, just a day after it rallied to a 13-year high on signs of a deadlock in wage talks. Spot platinum fell more than 3 % to a one-week low of $1,427.80 an ounce. It was last trading down 2.4 % to $1.440.70. Spot gold was up 1 % an ounce to $1,273. Silver rose 1.8 % to $19.49 an ounce. (Reuters)

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