Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 17 June 2014

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Publish date: Tue, 17 Jun 2014, 09:31 AM

Asia

China To Meet This Year's 7.5% Growth Target: Premier Li. China is confident it will hit its growth target of 7.5 % this year, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday, adding the government was ready to adjust policy to make sure it does. "China's economy needs to grow at a proper rate, expected to be around 7.5 per cent this year," Li wrote. "It is slower than the past, but normal." "Despite considerable downward pressure, China's economy is moving on a steady course. We will continue to make anticipatory and moderate adjustments when necessary. We are well prepared to defuse various risks. We are confident that this year's growth target will be met." A Reuters poll in April forecast China's economic growth could slow to 7.3 % in the second quarter from a 18-month low of 7.4 % in the previous quarter, with full-year growth of 7.3 % in 2014, the weakest in 24 years. (Reuters)

Singapore May Home Sales Highest Since June 2013. The number of private homes sold by developers in Singapore in May was the highest monthly figure in almost a year, government data showed on Monday. Developers sold 1,470 units last month, a 0.8% rise compared to 1,459 units in May 2013, data compiled by the Urban Redevelopment Authority showed. The level of sales was nearly double April's figure of 749 and was the highest since June 2013 when 1,806 units were sold. Singapore has taken steps to cool the housing market, and property prices have fallen for the past two quarters. (Reuters)

USA

IMF Cuts Us Growth Forecast As It Urges Minimum Wage Hike. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its US growth forecast, urged policy makers to keep interest rates low and raise the minimum wage to strengthen its recovery. The crisis lender said it expects 2% growth this year, down from its April forecast of 2.8%, after a "harsh winter" led to a weak first quarter. However it expects 3% growth in 2015. It also said the US should increase its minimum wage to help address its 15% poverty rate. The IMF said it only expected the economy to reach full employment by the end of 2017, with "muted" inflation pressures. It said this meant interest rates could stay low for longer than the mid-2015 date, when a rise is expected by markets. "Labor markets are weaker than is implied by the headline unemployment number," the IMF said, saying long-term unemployment remained high and wages were stagnant. (BBC)

Factories Boost U.S. Output As Builders Gain Confidence. American manufacturers are churning out more goods and homebuilders are regaining confidence as evidence mounts that the world’s largest economy is making a comeback after a slow start to 2014. Output at factories, mines and utilities rose 0.6% in May, reflecting gains at makers of automobiles, business equipment and construction supplies, according to Federal Reserve data today in Washington. Builder sentiment this month jumped by the most in almost a year, another report showed. (Bloomberg)

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Rises Most In Almost A Year. Confidence among U.S. homebuilders rose in June by the most in almost a year, a sign the residential real estate market is stabilizing after reeling from severe winter weather earlier this year. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge climbed to 49 this month from 45 in May, the biggest gain since July 2013, figures from the Washington-based group showed today. Readings greater than 50 mean more respondents report good market conditions. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 47. (Bloomberg)

Europe

Euro Zone Price Inflation Hits Trough In May. A further slowdown in euro zone inflation in May was confirmed on Monday, as the cost of telecommunication and food kept prices low, confirming a problem that the European Central Bank recently sought to stem. Consumer prices in 18 countries using the euro rose by 0.5 % on the year in May, keeping them in the 'danger zone' of below 1 %, the EU's statistics office Eurostat data said. Prices fell by 0.1 % on the month in May, with the cost of services down by 0.2 % when compared with April. (Reuters)

Currencies

Pound Trades At Nearly 5-Year High. The pound rose to a nearly five-year high Monday, briefly topping $1.70, on expectations the Bank of England would become the first major central bank to raise interest rates. The pound moved up to $1.6983 from $1.6968 late Friday. The dollar fell to 101.84 yen from ¥102.05 late Friday. The dollar has fallen 3.3% against the yen in 2014 to date. Meanwhile, the euro rose to $1.3572 from $1.3535 late Friday. The Australian dollar was unchanged at 93.99 U.S. cents. The ICE dollar index , a gauge of the dollar’s strength against six rivals, declined to 80.450 from 80.632. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Brent Crude Oil Higher As Iraq Conflict Fuels Supply Worry. Brent crude oil futures rose on Monday as advances by Sunni insurgents in Iraq fueled concerns over a potential disruption to oil exports from OPEC's second-largest producer. Brent crude for August delivery rose by 48 cents to settle at $112.94 a barrel, after touching an intraday high of $113.28. The July contract, which expired on Friday, went off the board at $113.41 per barrel, the highest settlement since September 2013. U.S. July crude fell by 1 cent to $106.90 a barrel, after swinging by nearly $1, between $106.61 and $107.54. The U.S. July contract expires on June 20. (Reuters)

Gold Retreats From Near 3-Week High On Profit Taking. Gold fell on Monday as investors took profits after earlier hitting a near three-week high on turmoil in Iraq which lifted the metal's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold eased 0.3 % to $1,272.41 an ounce by 3:22 p.m. Silver edged down 0.3 % to $19.61 an ounce. Platinum was up 0.6 % to $1,432.30 an ounce, while palladium slipped 0.3 % to $806.97 an ounce. (Reuters)

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