Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 18 June 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 18 Jun 2014, 09:19 AM

Malaysia

KL Moves Up The Rank. Malaysia now joins the top 20 “investor-friendly” nations in drawing investments in the next five years, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) latest ranking. The ranking, done by the well-read current affairs publication, has placed Malaysia in the 19th position out of 82 countries for the 2014-2018 period, ahead of advanced economies like the United Kingdom, France, South Korea and Japan. The latest Business Environment Rankings (BER) released last month marks an improvement of five places for Malaysia from 24th for the 2009-2013 period. The top three positions were retained by Singapore, Switzerland and Hong Kong. (NST)

Asia

Singapore May Exports Disappoint. Singapore's exports unexpectedly fell in May on weak shipments of electronics and pharmaceuticals to its key markets, data showed on Tuesday, indicating the city-state may not be benefiting yet from a recovery in developed economies. Non-oil domestic exports fell a seasonally adjusted 7.5% in May from April, trade agency International Enterprise Singapore said, well below a forecast of 0.5% growth. From a year earlier, non-oil exports in May slid 6.6%, compared with growth of 0.9% forecast in a Reuters poll. (Reuters)

Foreign Investment Into China Falls In May. Foreign investment in China fell in May to its lowest level in 16 months, partly due to slowing growth. The government says China attracted $8.6bn in foreign direct investment (FDI) in May. That is a 6.7% fall from the same period last year and marks China's weakest FDI report since January 2013. Economists say prospects of slower growth in the world's second-largest economy may have deterred foreign investors. (BBC)

India's Modi Government Takes Steps To Control Inflation. India's new government on Tuesday imposed export restrictions on certain farm commodities and ordered a crackdown on hoarding to control rising food prices, a day after wholesale price inflation hit a five-month high. A jump in prices of potatoes and onions last month drove inflation to 6.01 % from 5.20 % in April, contributing to a sell-off in financial markets. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, who held a meeting on Tuesday to decide steps to control food inflation, said the government was keeping a close watch on the price movements of 22 commodities and would offload additional rice stocks in the market to prevent a build-up in inflationary expectations. The government also imposed a minimum export price on onions of $300 per tonne from $150 per tonne to discourage overseas shipments and Jaitley said a similar curb would be imposed on exports of potatoes. (Reuters)

USA

Consumer Prices Rising As U.S. Housing Stabilizes. Consumer prices rose in May by the most in more than a year, showing U.S. companies are gaining some pricing power as the economy strengthens, and the homebuilding industry stabilized after a first-quarter swoon. The cost of living increased 0.4 %, the biggest advance since February 2013, according to Labor Department data released today in Washington. Other figures showed builders broke ground on 1 million homes at an annualized rate after 1.07 million in April, the best two-month reading since late 2013. (Bloomberg)

Housing Starts In U.S. Beat 1 Million Pace For Second Month. Builders broke ground on 1 million U.S. homes in May, indicating the industry is picking up this quarter after a weather-induced slump to start the year. The number of housing starts last month was in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed April’s 1.07 million annualized rate that was the most since November, a Commerce Department report showed today in Washington. Permits, a proxy for future construction, decreased, reflecting a decline in the volatile multi family category. (Bloomberg)

Europe

China Signs £14bn Trade Deals With Uk Amid Premier's Visit. China says it wants to back major UK infrastructure projects and has signed £14bn in trade deals. The news comes on the first full day of a visit by its leader. The BBC understands the projects the state-owned China Development Bank (CDB) wants to invest in include High Speed 2 and the next generation of nuclear power stations. Another deal is expected between BP and China National Offshore Oil Corporation worth about $20bn (£11.8bn). That will run over 20 years. CDB has signed a memorandum of understanding with TheCityUK. (BBC)

UK Inflation Rate Falls To 1.5% In May. Lower fares for flights helped to push the rate of inflation down to its lowest level in four-and-a-half years in May. The Consumer Prices Index fell to 1.5% in May compared with 1.8% in April, according to the Office for National Statistics. It is the sixth consecutive month that inflation has been below the Bank of England's 2% target. A fall in food prices also helped drive down the rate of inflation. (BBC)

German Investor Mood Drops Even As ECB Boosts Stimulus. German investor confidence unexpectedly fell for a sixth month in June even after the European Central Bank announced a new round of stimulus aimed at preventing deflation and rekindling growth in the euro area. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, slid to 29.8 from 33.1 in May. Economists forecast an increase to 35, according to the median of 35 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The gauge has dropped every month since reaching a seven-year high in December and is now at the weakest since December 2012. (Bloomberg)

European Car Sales Up 4.3%. Europe’s car sales rose 4.3% in May as volume brands Skoda, Renault and Opel posted stronger growth than premium marques BMW and Audi, according to registrations data published on Tuesday. Europe’s car market has shown signs of recovery from a six-year slump, but excess production capacity, heavy discounting and incentives continue to distort the true level of demand. Registrations in the European Union and the countries of the European Free Trade Association increased to 1.13 million cars last month, from 1.09 million a year earlier, the Association of European Carmakers said. (Reuters)

Currencies

Dollar Gains; Pound Notches First Loss In Five Sessions. The dollar rises against the pound, the first gain in five sessions, after weaker-than-expected U.K. inflation raised questions about the Bank of England’s need to increase interest rates, which tends to weigh on price pressures. The pound fell to $1.6962 from $1.6983 late Monday. In other action, the dollar rose to ¥102.15 from ¥101.84 late Monday. The ICE dollar index, which pits the greenback against six other currencies, rose to 80.607 from 80.450 late in the prior session. The euro fell to $1.3546 from $1.3572 late Monday. The Australian dollar declined to 93.36 U.S. cents from 93.99 U.S. cents. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Oil Steady Above $113 As Iraq Fears Offset Warmer Iran-West Links. Brent oil held steady above $113 per barrel and U.S. crude weakened slightly on Tuesday as fears over oil supply disruptions from Iraq offset the possibility of increased supply due to a thawing of relations between Iran and the West. Brent crude for August delivery gained 51 cents to settle at $113.45 per barrel. U.S. July crude fell 54 cents to settle at $106.36 a barrel. The U.S. July contract expires on June 20. (Reuters)

Gold Down, Focus On Fed As Iraq-Driven Rally Cools. Gold edged lower on Tuesday, backing away from the previous session's three-week highs as a stronger dollar and possible thawing of Middle East-West tensions quelled appetite for safe-haven assets. By 12:30 p.m. EDT (1630 GMT), the spot price of gold was down $1.00 at $1,270.29 after touching a near one-week low at $1,258.85. Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.3 % at $19.66 an ounce. Palladium gained 0.4 % to $812.65 an ounce, while platinum was up 0.1 % at $1,430.60. (Reuters)

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