Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 9 July 2014

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Publish date: Wed, 09 Jul 2014, 09:39 AM

Global

Global Semiconductors Sale Up 9% In May. Worldwide sales of semiconductors grew by 8.8% in May to US$26.86bil from a year ago driven by healthy growth across all regions led by the Americas, said Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). Year-over-year and month-over-month sales increased across all regions for the first time since August 2010 with sales in May this year also 2% higher from the preceding month. Compared with May last year, sales increased in the Americas was up by 10.6%, Europe grew by 10.1%, Asia Pacific by 8.6%, and Japan by 5.3%. (The Star)

Asia Pacific

Japan’s Current-Account Surplus Masks Export Weakness. Japan posted a fourth straight current-account surplus, as income from overseas investments masks the failure of the yen’s slide to boost exports. The excess in the widest measure of trade was 522.8 billion yen ($5.1 billion) in May, the finance ministry reported in Tokyo today, beating the median forecast of 417.5 billion yen in a Bloomberg survey. Exports rose 2 % from a year earlier. (Bloomberg)

New Zealand Outlook Raised To Positive By Fitch. New Zealand’s credit outlook was raised to positive from stable by Fitch Ratings, which cited the nation’s improving fiscal situation and supportive economy. The currency climbed to an almost three-year high. Fitch affirmed its long-term foreign currency rating at AA, two grades below the top score. The New Zealand dollar touched 88.06 U.S. cents following the announcement, the highest since August 2011. “Fiscal consolidation is strengthening the resilience of New Zealand’s sovereign credit profile,” Fitch said in a statement today. “The authorities have a credible plan to lift the fiscal surplus in the years ahead”. (Bloomberg)

USA

Job Openings In U.S. Increased To An Almost Seven-Year High. Job openings rose in May to the highest level in almost seven years, a sign the U.S labor market will help boost economic growth in the second half of this year. The number of positions waiting to be filled climbed by 171,000 to 4.64 million, the most since June 2007, a report from the Labor Department showed today. The number of unemployed job seekers per opening fell to the lowest level in six years. (Bloomberg)

Consumer Credit In U.S. Jumps As Auto Lending Strengthens. Consumer borrowing in the U.S. surged again in May as Americans took out more loans to purchase cars. The $19.6 billion increase in credit followed a revised $26.1 billion gain in April, Federal Reserve figures showed today in Washington. Non-revolving lending, which includes auto and school loans, advanced by the most in a year. (Bloomberg)

Small Business Confidence Edges Lower; Expectations Dim. U.S. small business sentiment weakened in June, pulling back from a six-year high because firms felt less confident the economy would improve in the coming months. The National Federation of Independent Business said on Tuesday its Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.6 points to 95 last month. Six of the NFIB's 10 indicators decreased, with about half of the decline in the overall index due to less confidence in future business conditions, the report said. The index also saw a deep slide in business expectations, which plunged by 10 points during the month. Real sales expectations, meanwhile, fell four points to 11 %. (Reuters)

Europe

German Exports And Imports Fall More Than Expected In May. German exports and imports dropped much more than expected in May, data showed on Tuesday, coming on the heels of other soft indicators that have signalled Europe's largest economy is losing momentum. Figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed seasonally-adjusted exports fell by 1.1 % on the month, while imports dropped 3.4 %, the steepest monthly fall since November 2012. The trade surplus widened to a seasonally adjusted 18.8 billion euros from a revised 17.2 billion in April and compared with a Reuters consensus forecast for 16.4 billion. (Reuters)

Italy Hits Resistance To Softer European Spending Rules. Italy and its allies will receive no special leeway in meeting EU budget rules, European officials agreed on Tuesday, as Germany resisted attempts to soft-pedal on long-promised spending reforms. Italy, leading a drive for greater flexibility in the way the rules are applied to encourage economic growth and investment, has the second-highest public debt in the euro zone as a proportion of national output, after Greece. In part of the meeting that was broadcast, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble cautioned peers against slacking on budgets, saying that structural reforms were no alternative to reining in excess spending or "fiscal consolidation". (Reuters)

French Mps Pass Welfare Cuts, Unions Boycott Labor Forum. France's parliament approved a series of welfare cuts on Tuesday despite abstentions by left-wing deputies, while a major teachers' union became the third group to boycott a labor forum hosted by President Francois Hollande. Prime Minister Manuel Valls, who had touted the forum as a launchpad for reform, announced that the government would use 540 million euros ($737 million) - about half of which is to be drawn from European Union funds - to fight youth unemployment. He also confirmed plans to lower income taxes for the middle class in the 2015 budget, but signaled little progress on plans to simplify the labor code. (Reuters)

UK Manufacturing Output In Surprise Fall. Manufacturing output in the UK recorded a surprise fall of 1.3% in May, the biggest decline since January 2013. The figure from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) was much weaker than economists' forecasts of an increase of 0.4%. Manufacturing data and surveys so far this year have indicated that the sector is growing robustly. The wider measure of industrial output also fell in May, the ONS figures showed, dropping by 0.7%. (BBC)

Currencies

Euro, Pound Reverse Losses Against Dollar. The euro and pound rebounded from earlier losses against the U.S. dollar to end little changed Tuesday, as investors remain cautious of buying the greenback given its inability to show a sustainable rally. The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of its rivals, finished the day down slightly at 80.176 from 80.227 on Monday. The pound closed at $1.7132 Tuesday, compared with $1.7134 on Monday. Weakerthan-expected trade data from Germany added to evidence of slowing in Europe’s largest economy, causing the euro to briefly dip. The currency finished the day at $1.3612, up from $1.3607 Monday. In other action, the dollar slipped against the yen, trading at ¥101.57 from ¥101.82 on Monday. The Australian dollar was trading at 93.99 U.S. cents, up from 93.58 U.S. cents, following a survey from the National Australia Bank showing business confidence rose to a five-month high in June. (Market Watch)

Commodities

Crude Undermined By Easing Libya, Iraq Supply Fears. Brent crude slid more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, its seventh straight decline, with U.S. oil also falling as Libyan oil exports looked likely to rise, and fears eased over a supply disruption in Iraq. Brent for August delivery tumbled under $110 a barrel, down by $1 and at its lowest in a month. U.S. crude edged down 13 cents to settle at $103.40, its eighth consecutive session of declines —the longest decline since 2009. (Reuters)

Palladium At 13-Year High On Lingering Supply Concerns. Palladium rose for the 12th straight session to its highest in more than 13 years on Tuesday amid firm automotive demand and continued concerns supplies in South Africa will tighten even after the end of a months-long strike. In an otherwise quiet session, palladium hit $873.75 an ounce, the highest since February 2001, taking its gains to 8 % over the past two weeks since miners in South Africa, the world's second largest producer, struck a wage deal to end a five-month industrial action that crimped output. Spot gold fell 0.2 % to $1,317.43 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled down 0.04 % at $1,316.50 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.2 % to $1,488.75 an ounce, turning lower along with other precious metals and U.S. stock markets. Spot silver edged down 0.4 % to $20.96 an ounce. (Reuters)

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