Kenanga Research & Investment

Kenanga Research - Macro Bits - 14 July 2014

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Publish date: Mon, 14 Jul 2014, 09:27 AM

Asia

Tokyo: TPP Talks Reach Agreement On Labour, Health Issues. Pacific trade talks have reached broad agreement on labour issues and sanitary and phytosanitary standards but some difficult aspects remain to be tackled, Japan’s chief negotiator said on Saturday. United States President Barack Obama said last month he aimed to have a free-trade draft he could take to meetings with other leaders in November. Chief Japanese negotiator Koji Tsuruoka said the 12 member nations of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) made progress at talks in Ottawa, but there was no discussion about the timing of the overall accord in the regional free trade agreement. (Reuters)

South Korea Quietly Intervenes On The Won To Bolster Economy. South Korea's foreign exchange authorities have been engaged in a quiet war in recent months to hold down the won, throwing more firepower at it than for years in a bid to support exports and help keep the economy on its fragile recovery track. The dollar-buying accelerated as the won hit sixyear highs and crept towards 1,000 to the dollar, a psychologically symbolic level that policymakers appear reluctant to see broken quickly. It stood at around 1,019 per dollar late on Friday. The authorities have said they intervene only to smooth volatility, blaming "herd" behavior for pushing up the won. Yet for now, even though the government wants to rebalance the economy towards consumption and away from exports, growth still relies on trade and a strong won hurts, hence the stepped-up intervention. (Reuters)

Indonesia Holds Key Interest Rate To Curb Current-Account Gap. Indonesia’s central bank held its key interest rate for an eighth straight meeting, maintaining a tight policy setting to help narrow a current-account deficit that has depressed the rupiah. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo and his board maintained the reference rate at 7.5 percent, the central bank said in Jakarta today, a decision predicted by all 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The monetary authority has signaled it will maintain a tight monetary stance this year after raising the benchmark rate in 2013, even as inflation eased to a one-year low in June. It refrained from adjusting policy a day after Indonesia’s presidential election, with both Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and ex-general Prabowo Subianto claiming victory ahead of official results due later this month. (Bloomberg)

USA

US And EU Trade Talks To Resume. Officials from the European Union and the US will spend this week in Brussels trying to make progress negotiating a controversial trade deal. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) aims to stimulate commerce by reducing barriers such as tariffs and differences in regulation. Critics say the agenda is driven by international business and will be bad for European and American citizens. It is a little over a year since the talks were launched at a G8 summit. (BBC)

Europe

S&P Ups Ukraine Outlook To Stable From Negative. Standard & Poor's revised its outlook on Ukraine to stable from negative, saying that the International Monetary Fund program adopted in April has helped improve the economic situation in the country. However, the agency noted that the IMF program could be impacted by geopolitical risks and a severe recession. "Full disbursement of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and related multilateral lending should enable Ukraine to meet its external financing needs over the next year," the ratings agency said in a statement. Standard & Poor's affirmed the 'CCC' long-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings. (Reuters)

Serbia Committed To 3-Year IMF Agreement, Vujovic Says. Serbia wants to secure a three-year loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund this year to help reach debt and deficit goals as it eases off on spending cuts to blunt the pain of austerity, the new finance chief said. Acting Finance Minister Dusan Vujovic, who took over the post after Lazar Krstic stepped down on July 12, pledged to keep the largest former Yugoslav republic from going “bust” and vowed the effect of reductions will be more evenly distributed in the economy through 2017, he said. Vujovic’s plan is for an “equally credible but socially more doable” program that would narrow the deficit by 500 million euros ($680 million) a year through 2017, he said. (Bloomberg)

Currencies

Dollar Steady In Subdued Market As Key Events Loom. The dollar, euro and yen started trade on Monday pretty much where they closed last week with investors awaiting pivotal events including Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's congressional testimony for fresh cues. The dollar index was steady around 80.200, a level it has gravitated towards since recovering from a two-month low of 79.740 set on July 1. The euro bought $1.3604, having traded on either side of $1.3600 in the past week. Against the yen, the greenback fetched 101.37 holding off a seven-week trough of 101.06 plumbed last Thursday. The euro was near 138.00 yen, recovering from last week's fall to a five-month low of 137.50. The Aussie last traded at $0.9384, having dipped as low as $0.9370, from Friday's late $0.9390. (Reuters)

Commodities

Brent Hits Three-Month Lows On Easing Geopolitical Risk. Brent oil hit a three-month low on Friday, extending losses for the third week in a row as fears about supply shortages in the Middle East and North Africa continued to recede. Brent lost $2.01 to settle at $106.66 a barrel, the lowest since April 7. It has dropped about 3.7 percent since the beginning of the week, the steepest slide since early January. U.S. crude lost $2.10 cents to settle at $100.83, the lowest since May 12. It is down about 3.2 percent since the beginning of the week, the sharpest drop in almost two months. (Reuters)

Gold Flat For Day, Up For 6th Week On Middle East Tension. Gold prices were flat on Friday as investors grew less worried about Portugal's top listed bank, but the precious metal notched its sixth straight weekly gain as many remained concerned about violence in the Middle East. At 3:20 p.m. EDT (1920 GMT), the spot price of gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,337 an ounce, not far from the 3-1/2 month of $1,345 set in the previous session. For the week, it rose 1.3 percent, for a six straight week of gains. Spot silver was almost flat at $21.38 an ounce, having also hit its highest in nearly four months on Thursday at $21.55. It was also up almost 2 percent for a six straight week of gains. Spot platinum was down 0.2 percent at $1,507.24 an ounce, while spot palladium was up 0.3 percent at $869.72, after Thursday's 13-1/2 year high of $875.60. (Reuters)

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